|New Polls (July 13-15)|
|Colorado||Public Policy Polling||+4|
|North Carolina||Survey USA||+5|
|South Carolina||Public Policy Polling||+6|
The polls in Louisiana, Michigan and Minnesota are the only ones on the list that break more than three points from the established averages. However, little changed in each of those states, much less the other seven states. South Dakota's result brought it down a notch on our scale, making the Mount Rushmore state a lean toward McCain (down from being strong).
|Changes (July 13-15)|
|South Dakota||Strong McCain||McCain lean|
That the Public Policy Polling survey in South Carolina is in line with FHQ's average is also of note (possibly the only thing of note in this collection of polling data). The consensus on the Palmetto state, at least in the electoral college collection over at DemConWatch, is that South Carolina is one of the safer states for McCain. I don't necessarily disagree with that despite our average here that places it within the toss up category. As Nate Silver pointed out last week though, the states most similar to South Carolina are North Carolina and Georgia. Now that doesn't mean that South Carolina fits equally in between those two (Well, it does geographically.), but it does give us a range that the state would reasonably fall into. Granted that's a pretty wide range: from the high side of the toss up category to the low side of the strong category. However, given its neighbors, that's about where our expectations are for South Carolina: at this point a lean to McCain (For the record, South Carolina is new to the Watch List on the line between a toss up and a lean to McCain.).
Since only three electoral votes shifted categories, the map remains nearly as it did on Sunday. South Dakota turns a lighter shade of red but still provides McCain with a comfortable enough lead. Its northern neighbor makes you wonder whether the Mount Rushmore state could become more competitive. It could be, though, that the opposite is true: North Dakota appears tighter than it actually is. And as I said, the Watch List adds only South Carolina in this current iteration. These 14 are the states to watch for as new polling emerges.
|The Watch List*|
|Alaska||from McCain lean||to Toss Up McCain|
|Arizona||from Strong McCain||to McCain lean|
|Florida||from Toss Up McCain||to McCain lean|
|Minnesota||from Strong Obama||to Obama lean|
|Mississippi||from McCain lean||to Strong McCain|
|Nevada||from Toss Up Obama||to Toss Up McCain|
|North Carolina||from Toss Up McCain||to McCain lean|
|North Dakota||from Toss Up McCain||to Toss Up Obama|
|Ohio||from Toss Up Obama||to Toss Up McCain|
|Oregon||from Obama lean||to Strong Obama|
|South Carolina||from Toss Up McCain||to McCain lean|
|Virginia||from Toss Up McCain||to Toss Up Obama|
|Washington||from Strong Obama||to Obama lean|
|Wisconsin||from Obama lean||to Toss Up Obama|
|*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.|
The 30/30 Rule: Obama's Chances in Georgia...and across the South
Can the World Position Itself for the Next President Before the Actual Election? In 2008, it won't be easy.
The Electoral College Map (7/13/08)