Wednesday, August 27, 2008

The Links (8/27/08)

Hey, political scientists like to have their egos stroked too. Below, Karl Rove weighs in on Hillary Clinton's convention speech and discusses convention bounces, citing Tom Holbrook along the way.




Hat tip to Melissa for the heads up.

UPDATE: And Kayla sends us a video from ABC showing some anecdotal evidence of speech effects from Clinton's address last night. Now a question: Were the delegates more easily swayed than swing voters/Hillary supporters not in the hall last night? On the one hand, they are loyal to Clinton, but as a result are they more likely to follow the New York senator's wishes than folks who, while they supported her, may not be as likely to go along with her on this one?


Recent Posts:
Some Good One-Liners Tonight at the Democratic Convention

An August Look at the Barr/Nader Effect in 2008

The Pre-Convention Swoon Revisited

3 comments:

Robert said...

Not bad for fair and balanced commentary from the Architect. His points on Obam's decline since June depends on when in June. According to RCP averages

http://www.realclearpolitics.com
/epolls/2008/president/us
/general_election_mccain_vs_obama
-225.html

the two were tied at 46.0 on June 1. Obama reached his peak at 48.3 on June 24 while McCain reached his valley at 40.3 on June 29.

The other thing about the Obama bounce is the back-to-back nature of the conventions which could decrease the bounce, particularly if McCain nominates a dynamic choice for VP on Friday morning. A choice of Romney or Pawlenty won't have as much an effect as a Fiorino, Jindal, Palin, Ridge or Lieberman would have. Any of the dynamic picks would also have the potential for a negative bounce for McCain.

SarahLawrenceScott said...

While we're on the subject of anecdotal evidence from the media, I liked this exchange, heard on MSNBC. Clearly Mitchell was expecting a different response:

Heard on MSNBC (ellipses indicate edits, basically for length):

Andrea Mitchell: I'm here with a 79 year old woman...Angie Gilareto from Pittsburgh...we were sitting together during Hillary Clinton's speech, and she was crying...

Andrea Mitchell: [to delegate]: Why are you so sad? Why not take her message to support Barack Obama?

Delegate: Oh, I am taking the message, wholeheartedly. I am supporting Obama and Joe Biden. I'm a true Democrat and a party leader, and I believe in what Governor Rendell said: We need a new beginning, and I believe in that.

Josh Putnam said...

Here's that RCP link from Rob.