Thursday, March 19, 2009

Election 2012: Obama 55 - Palin 35

It's just too bad Public Policy Polling didn't do this at the state level. I would have been tempted to start a new spreadsheet.

...three years in advance.

I would try to draw a comparison, but Pollster's archives only go back to late 2006. Plus, the inevitable Clinton-McCain head-to-heads that likely would have been done probably would have been much closer than 20 points. As the PPP release indicates, that's in Nixon-McGovern blowout territory. We know, for instance, that presidential elections are typically "closer" races than those downballot on average. Let's put it this way: Obama would have to do really well relative to expectations (Yes, that's a moving target.) and Palin would have to come across as really (probably extremely) conservative for 2012 to come anywhere close to that margin.

A couple of points on that last statement:
1) Some probably already view Palin as extremely conservative. But those are mostly Democrats (only 3% of which were undecided in this poll; compared with 18% of Republicans.).
2) Yes, there are extenuating circumstances that are confined to the campaign environment that could also help push that margin up or make it closer.

And here's the caveat to the poll:
This was a national poll conducted between March 13-15, but there were only a shade under 700 respondents. Yeah, that's a few hundred under where the usual national sample is in terms of numbers.

But hey, it's a 2012 poll, right?

(A doff of my cap to Pollster for the heads up.)

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