Sunday, February 26, 2012

Romney Leading in Wyoming Precinct Caucus Votes

With 50 more votes cast in the Johnson County, Wyoming precinct caucus meeting yesterday, the Republican delegate selection process in the Equality state continued. Over three-quarters of the way through the precinct caucuses, Mitt Romney leads Rick Santorum by 171 votes with just over 1700 votes cast. Romney has garnered 41% of the vote in the 18 (of 23) counties to have held a straw poll votes thus far. Santorum at this point has 31% followed by Ron Paul at 20% and Gingrich well back at 7% of the vote. The remaining precinct caucuses and straw poll votes will be conducted between now and Wednesday when the window in which these meetings closes according to party rules.
  Source: Wyoming Republican Party

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Now, again, the same basic ground rules apply in the Wyoming as in the other caucus states to have held votes on the precinct level already: There is no rule regarding the method by which delegates are selected on the precinct level to move on to the county/district/state convention level. There is no rule that says that process has to be proportional or winner-take-all based on the non-binding straw poll vote. But if everyone who votes in the straw poll stays around for the selection of delegates who move on to the county level -- in the case of Wyoming -- then the ultimate selection of delegates to the county level, we should assume, would be largely proportional.

It should be noted as a follow up to yesterday's examination of the Wyoming process that the precinct to county transition is a bit blurry. A number of counties did not even break up into subunits/precincts and as a result function like county-wide meetings. From the county convention delegate perspective in those counties that had just one precinct meeting, there won't be any new faces at those county conventions that will take place between March 6-10. This likely will have little impact on the race, but it is worth pointing out. The other thing to note, is that there will be a quick turnaround from the precinct meetings to the county conventions. And while those delegates will be unbound heading to the county conventions there will be less time to move them -- from the campaigns' perspectives.

Romney is likely to maintain the lead in the Wyoming straw poll across the remaining five counties' contests over the next few days, but there will not be any delegates on the line until the counties select either their delegate or alternate in early March.


Recent Posts:
2012 Republican Delegate Allocation: Wyoming

2012 Republican Delegate Allocation: Washington State

2012 Republican Delegate Allocation: Arizona


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2 comments:

Anonymous said...

"A number of counties did not even break up into subunits/precincts and as a result function like county-wide meetings. From the county convention delegate perspective in those counties that had just one precinct meeting, there won't be any new faces at those county conventions that will take place between March 6-10."

That's not correct. Every caucus broke up into their individual precincts within the countywide caucuses after all caucus goers signed in. Some counties decided to hold caucuses in several locations to accommodate certain precincts but every single precinct had its own precinct caucus (most just had it in one pooled location).

Within each precinct caucus, delegates and alternates were elected to the county conventions. Some precincts had more volunteers to be delegates than there were positions available. In these precincts, elections were held to elect delegates and alternates from the pool of volunteers. Not everyone who attended their precinct caucus became delegates to their county convention.

Also, each county had leeway in determining how many delegates were allowed in each precinct to be elected to the county convention. In some counties, only the precinct committee people were allowed to be delegates to the county convention and others could only become delegates if there were vacant precinct committee positions. In most counties though, each precinct was allowed to elect extra delegates per precinct in addition to the automatic delegates (precinct committee people).

Josh Putnam said...

Thanks for your comment. Good addition.

Let me clarify my meaning. I was pointing out that the precinct meetings were taking place at one location and that the dynamics are slightly different in that scenario than if the precincts had held separate meetings.

RE: leeway at the county level: Yeah, I touched on that some in the broader post on Wyoming delegate selection.