Sunday, March 18, 2012

About that RNC Delegate Count, Part Two

Look, FHQ does not want to do this every time the RNC releases an updated delegate count, but to the extent there are discrepancies between the released count and the intent of the delegate allocation rules on the state level, that needs to be discussed. To wit:
  • Georgia: You will remember from part one the discussion of the delegate allocation from Georgia. The vote totals have been updated on the Georgia Secretary of State website as of March 14 -- this past Wednesday -- and given those numbers both statewide and throughout each of the congressional districts, the GAGOP rules-based allocation does not jibe with the RNC count. That count, unchanged since the RNC's post-Super Tuesday delegate count press release, shows Gingrich with a 52 to 21 advantage with Santorum netting three delegates. However, the Georgia election results, as most currently updated, still show a 54 to 19 Gingrich lead over Romney with Santorum still pulling in three delegates. 
  • Alabama & Tennessee: The Tennessee Republican Party has still not released the primary results by congressional district and the Alabama results by congressional district released by the state party reflect only the election of delegates (which was done directly on the primary ballot) and not the allocation of delegates. That is to say, we are not privy to the topline presidential preference vote by congressional district; the one that determines the allocation of delegates. And lest you say, "Well, shouldn't the delegate election reflect what we see in those presidential preference numbers?", it should be noted that Santorum did not file a full slate of delegates to appear on the ballot in Alabama. No one is talking about Santorum potentially losing delegates over this. And that is because he isn't. Despite not having delegates on the ballot, Santorum still has slots allocated to him based on his performance in the presidential preference vote. The short of all of this on both Alabama and Tennessee is that for the time being we will have to take the RNC's word for it on the delegate allocation there. Without the results by congressional district, there is little chance of accurately checking the math in either state. 
  • Hawaii: First, the RNC delegate count for Hawaii is correct, but it is worthwhile to look at why it is right. Now, as an astute reader pointed out to FHQ, the rounding discussed in our rundown of the delegate allocation in the Aloha state, applied to not only the statewide vote, but the congressional district vote as well. That allowed Romney to round up to two delegates in each of the two Hawaii congressional districts. With the former Massachusetts governor's five delegates statewide, that made nine total delegates. Based on the rules used by the Hawaii Republican Party, any fractional delegate is rounded up and the allocation is handled in descending order from the top vote-getter all the way down to the candidate with the least number of votes. The congressional district allocation is easy enough. Romney was allocated two delegates and Santorum one in both congressional districts. Statewide, Romney's 44% of the vote granted him 4.84 delegates (5), Santorum's 25% netted him 2.75 delegates (3) and Ron Paul's 19% awarded him 2.09 delegates (3). That allocated all 11 at-large delegates and Newt Gingrich's vote total was not considered even though his 11% of the vote would have -- under a different set of rules -- one delegate. But, rules are rules, and the delegate allocation in Hawaii shuts Gingrich out of delegates. 
Again, we aren't talking about much of a difference here, but accuracy is accuracy:
Romney: 433 (-2)
Santorum: 173
Gingrich: 138 (+2)
Paul: 27
Unbound: 240

Recent Posts:
A Few Thoughts on the Missouri Caucuses

Unbound vs. Unpledged Delegates

On the State of the Republican Nomination Race, Post-AL/MS

Are you following FHQ on TwitterGoogle+ and Facebook? Click on the links to join in.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Do you know why the RNC gave the superdelegates and the regular delegates in the islands to Romney? I know they voted to have the entire delegation pledge their support to Romney, but aren't they still technically unbound?