Monday, April 23, 2012

Race to 1144: MN, MO & WY Conventions

Contest Delegates (via contest results and rules, and RNC)
Automatic Delegates (Democratic Convention Watch)

Delegate breakdown
 (post-MN, MO & WY conventions):
Changes since Colorado, Minnesota and North Dakota state/district conventions (4/17/12):
  • Romney: +31 delegates (Wyoming: +14, Missouri: +12, Tennessee: +2, Arkansas: +1, Illinois: +1, Oregon: +1, Alabama: +1)
  • Santorum: +7 delegates (Missouri: +7)
  • Paul: +16 delegates (Minnesota: +10, Missouri: +4, Colorado: +2)
  • Gingrich: +/- 0 delegates (Missouri: +1, Alabama: -1)
1) It should be noted that the delegates are difficult to classify in both Nevada and Vermont as both sets of automatic delegates are bound and proportionally allocated with either all of the delegates (Nevada) or with the at-large delegates (Vermont). Those six delegates are in the bound/pledged category in the spreadsheet above but are considered "contest delegates" in the bar chart at the top. It would not be surprising to see those six delegates among those who signed pledges to Romney at the RNC meeting in Scottsdale this past week when and if that list is made public.

2) Speaking of that list of pledges, at least five of the automatic delegates have been identified.

3) FHQ remembered to follow Colorado and Minnesota last weekend while I was on the road at a conference in Chicago, but the Wyoming Republican Party state convention was something I missed. All 14 of the delegates to be allocated at the state convention were allocated to Mitt Romney:
"The Wyoming Republican Party chose 14 delegates Saturday to this summer's Republican National Convention and all of them are committed to support Romney. The state will send a total of 29 delegates to the RNC."
4) Two of the unpledged delegates coming out of the Colorado conventions a week ago are Ron Paul supporters.
"Todd King of Lewis and Luke Kirk of Bayfield, both supporters of Texas congressman Ron Paul, were elected delegates to the Republican National Convention in Tampa, Fla., in August. They edged out the official slate of Romney delegates at Friday evening’s convention of 3rd Congressional District Republicans."
Don't be surprised when and if more of the other 12 unpledged Colorado delegates reveal themselves to be aligned with Paul.

5) The four congressional district conventions that have been held in Minnesota have favored Texas congressman, Ron Paul, thus far. Ten of his supporters won slots in the four conventions held over the weekend, bringing Paul's total delegates won in the North Star state to 20 -- half the total Minnesota delegation. The affiliation of the weekend's remaining two delegates are unknown.

6) In the eight Missouri congressional district conventions over the weekend, Mitt Romney won half of the 24 total delegates at stake. The other twelve delegates were divided among Santorum (7 delegates), Paul (4 delegates) and Gingrich (1 delegate). Romney swept all of the delegates in the 4th and 8th districts. Ron Paul did the same in the 5th district. Three candidates took delegates in each of the 1st and 6th districts while the final three districts elected Romney-Santorum slates.

7) The allocation of the delegates in Georgia is based on the most recent vote returns published online by the office of the Georgia Secretary of State. The allocation here differs from the RNC allocation in Georgia. The above grants Gingrich one additional delegate (which has been taken from Romney's total). Due to the way the Georgia Republican Party rounds fractional delegates, the FHQ count was off by one delegate (+Romney/-Gingrich). The congressional district count is unaffected (Gingrich 31, Romney, 8 and Santorum 3), but the way the at-large delegates are allocated to Gingrich and Romney -- the only candidates over 20% statewide -- is a bit quirky. Gingrich's portion of the vote would have entitled him to 14.6 delegates and Romney's 8.0. Under Georgia Republican rules, Gingrich is given 14 delegates and Romney 8. That leaves nine delegates unclaimed because the remaining candidates did not clear the 20% threshold. The candidate with the highest "remainder" is awarded the first delegate and the candidates over 20% trade turns until all of those delegates are allocated. Remember, Gingrich did not round up to 15 delegates (14.6), but that 0.6 gives him a larger "remainder" than Romney. The former speaker, then, is allocated the first of nine delegates. With an odd number of delegates leftover, Gingrich would have a fifth turn after Romney's fourth and that would end the allocation of those "extra" delegates. Gingrich would claim five to Romney's four. Of the 31 at-large delegates, Gingrich is allocated 19 and Romney 12. Please note that for winning the statewide vote, Gingrich is allocated the three automatic delegates. That makes the final allocation Gingrich 53, Romney 20 and Santorum 3. The RNC, though, has a different interpretation.

8) The Alabama primary results by congressional district have not been released by the Alabama Republican Party. UPDATE (4/23/12, 1pm): Admittedly, FHQ had not checked on the Alabama delegate situation in a while [BOO! -- But thanks to Matt for prompting me to check in the comments below.]. In the meantime, the Alabama Republican Party revamped their website and now glosses over the delegate allocation. The press releases section now skips from April to February in the inverted chronology with nothing from March. I was still unable to track down the certified results by congressional district, but there is a certified delegate allocation from the Alabama Republican Party floating around out there:
Alabama Republican Presidential Primary Certified Results

What was "preliminary" about the delegate list in the memo on March 23 was "confirmed" by the Alabama Republican Party on or around April 6.

Recent Posts:
Another Weekend, Another Mixed Bag for Romney in Caucus State Delegate Allocation

In Missouri, A Bill to Bind Delegates Based on the Presidential Primary; Not the Caucus

Race to 1144: CO, MN & ND Conventions

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Matthew Wilder Tanner said...

First, let me say that I think this is the most accurate count that I've seen anywhere, so thank you for your attention to detail.

Second, with that being said, I hope you'll forgive me for suggesting a few things.

1) I'm not sure if you should assign any Huntsman NH delegates to Romney. Has Huntsman officially released the delegates? Since there are technically 3 Huntsman NH delegates but only 2 votes between them, which 2 of the 3 get a vote? I think these questions need to be answered first.

2) Shouldn't you defer to the official release from the Georgia Republican Party which awards the delegates as 21-3-52 (R/S/G)? I understand their rules are poorly written, but there is one interpretation which leads to 21-3-52.

3) I believe Alabama has released the certified results showing a delegate count of 12-22-13 (R/S/G). With Santorum's superdelegate, that would be 12-23-13. I don't have a link, but I emailed them and that was their response.

4) I think you might be missing a superdelegate. Democratic Convention Watch has 43 for Romney, but I only counted 42 in your chart. I could be mistaken.


Josh Putnam said...

Thanks for your comments.

1) The New Hampshire delegate in question has already stated a post-Huntsman suspension preference for Romney. While I agree with you that there are still a few levers to be pulled on this, Paul Collins is a Romney delegate.

2) I am on record as stating that I would defer to the RNC/GAGOP on the delegate allocation there. But I also don't mind pointing out the issue with the rule and drawing attention to it in the chart and the notes in these updates.

3) Thanks for the prompt on Alabama. I track the necessary information down and fixed it.

4) I have 52 automatic delegates for Romney (see bar chart). That includes bound automatics from Idaho, Maryland and Wisconsin.

Anonymous said...

I know this won't affect the current delegate allocation but Ron Paul supporters are winning National Delegate positions bound to other candidates in many states.

For instance, in Oklahoma, 9 Ron Paul supporters became National delegates in 3 Congressional Districts. If and when Santorum's or Gingrich's delegates become unbound, many will be voting for Ron Paul.

Story here:

By the way, when will Santorum's delegates all become uncommitted?

It's assumed that Huntsman's delegates are uncommitted but why not Santorum's delegates?

It seems like the Michigan GOP has already or is in the process of classifying all 14 Santorum delegates as uncommitted.

Anonymous said...

Your link to confirm the two Ron Paul delegates in CO doesn't work.

Here's a link that works:

Also, the story below indicates that Florence Sebern (delegate in CD-01) is a Ron Paul supporter.

Matthew Wilder Tanner said...


I happened upon another update when I checked up on the "uncommitted" delegates from the Virgin Islands. Apparently both have now pledged to Romney, bringing the count to Romney 8, Paul 1.