tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post221395528660171943..comments2024-03-26T05:22:08.256-04:00Comments on Frontloading HQ: Live Blog and Open Thread: Georgia Senate RunoffJosh Putnamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06301836432446874997noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-91909327235461461802008-12-02T21:56:00.000-05:002008-12-02T21:56:00.000-05:00Jack,I've actually thought of something that I'm g...Jack,<BR/>I've actually thought of something that I'm going to turn into a post in the morning instead of burying it here in the comments. I'll address your comment then as it ties in with what I'm doing.<BR/><BR/>And nice SNL reference.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-30135650397907568492008-12-02T21:38:00.000-05:002008-12-02T21:38:00.000-05:00Oh, and by "name recognition" I don't mean in the ...Oh, and by "name recognition" I don't mean in the style of the SNL skit.Jackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04365194237710177589noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-86176570028672611772008-12-02T21:37:00.000-05:002008-12-02T21:37:00.000-05:00Just saw your three questions. I think it's possib...Just saw your three questions. I think it's possible that the Democrats did have a shot at this, but lost it well before November 4. What do you think would have happened had:<BR/><BR/>1) The Democrats recognized earlier that they had a shot at this seat, like they did in NC, and;<BR/><BR/>2) Nominated a stronger candidate than Martin (say, someone who holds statewide office, if there is one, or one of the two conservative House Democrats from the state). Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't get the impression that Martin was a fantastic candidate - little statewide name recognition and perhaps slightly too liberal.<BR/><BR/>Perhaps these would have been enough to win on Nov. 4?Jackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04365194237710177589noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-50297008661956025152008-12-02T21:26:00.000-05:002008-12-02T21:26:00.000-05:00Jack,There are some similarities, but I thought Na...Jack,<BR/>There are some similarities, but I thought <A HREF="http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/12/georgia-senate-runoff-liveblog.html" REL="nofollow">Nate's wrap up comments</A> were apt (about the Democrats thinking twice about what happened in this one). <BR/><BR/>They will have to think about a situation where Obama is not on the ticket and the consequences that could have. Of course, Obama will be on the ticket indirectly in 2010.<BR/><BR/>LA-4 could prove a valuable laboratory for that (win or lose).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-78690212141180519242008-12-02T21:16:00.000-05:002008-12-02T21:16:00.000-05:00Gold medal for us, synchronized posting.Now the ac...Gold medal for us, synchronized posting.<BR/><BR/>Now the action is in Louisiana's 4th Congressional District. This doesn't bode well for Carmouche; LA-4 is racially rather similar to Georgia (slightly more African-Americans in LA-4), and politically similar (LA-4 is R+7, GA as a whole is R+6). But the different candidates (in LA, the Democrat Carmouche is probably better known than the Republican Fleming), as well as the fact that Louisiananians (That can't be right. Hoosiers?) are probably more used to runoffs, might make the difference.Jackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04365194237710177589noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-51852392557927221202008-12-02T21:10:00.000-05:002008-12-02T21:10:00.000-05:00Awesome! Now, we'll have to determine who pressed ...Awesome! Now, we'll have to determine who pressed "Publish" first on that one, Jack. I also came in at 9:05. You know what? I'm giving you this one. That pencil sharpener never was much of a prize.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-42975632769044327022008-12-02T21:05:00.000-05:002008-12-02T21:05:00.000-05:00AP calls it for Saxby Chambliss.<A HREF="http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/G/GEORGIA_SENATE?SITE=TNMEM&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT" REL="nofollow">AP calls it for Saxby Chambliss.</A>Jackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04365194237710177589noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-89191334421342599822008-12-02T20:59:00.000-05:002008-12-02T20:59:00.000-05:00Yeah, they've been counted but we won't see that r...Yeah, they've been counted but we won't see that reflected in the official count until those numbers come in with the election day data from their respective precincts. In other words, SOS has an idea about some of the rest of the vote, but won't report it until today's numbers come in.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-27230789251585267402008-12-02T20:52:00.000-05:002008-12-02T20:52:00.000-05:00I would think that the early votes have been count...I would think that the early votes have been counted in every precinct that reports. They're probably just stored on the machine until after election day, right?Jackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04365194237710177589noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-10870828072127980832008-12-02T20:39:00.000-05:002008-12-02T20:39:00.000-05:00Bret,That's pretty much what Nate and Sean are fin...Bret,<BR/>That's pretty much what Nate and Sean are finding over at FiveThirtyEight. Chambliss is outperforming his percentages from for weeks ago.<BR/><BR/>Jack,<BR/>This CNN/SOS thing is strange. Nevermind, SOS has them up now.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-87947348922500005092008-12-02T20:36:00.000-05:002008-12-02T20:36:00.000-05:00Yes, and that's been pretty drastic so far in Fult...Yes, and that's been pretty drastic so far in Fulton County, where Martin is only leading 14,438 to 14,006.Jackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04365194237710177589noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-10954715620818379232008-12-02T20:33:00.000-05:002008-12-02T20:33:00.000-05:00Take a look at the counties that have completely r...Take a look at the counties that have completely reported. Chambliss is up between 6 and 8 points over his general election results.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-84783941238765027842008-12-02T20:24:00.000-05:002008-12-02T20:24:00.000-05:00The county results on the SOS site seem to be tota...The county results on the SOS site seem to be totally different from what <A HREF="http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/county/#GAS03p1" REL="nofollow">CNN is reporting.</A> For example, while CNN is saying that only 28% of precincts are reporting (as opposed to 30% on SOS), CNN has 71% of Cobb County reporting as opposed to 0% on SOS.Jackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04365194237710177589noreply@blogger.com