tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post252250049538178021..comments2024-03-18T07:11:29.068-04:00Comments on Frontloading HQ: The Electoral College Map (9/23/08)Josh Putnamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06301836432446874997noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-62406215860854412272008-09-23T21:03:00.000-04:002008-09-23T21:03:00.000-04:00Two points to make a string, indeed. That's right...Two points to make a string, indeed. <BR/><BR/>That's right. And we have to remember that a few of those CNN polls came out in the time between the two conventions. That either makes them look like solid prognosticators (OH +1) or like something went wrong (MN +14) when people look back a year from now. <BR/><BR/>The jury is still out on New Hampshire. Everything since June has pretty much been within three points in either direction. And it will take a few 5 point margins in one direction for me to say that either candidate has an advantage there. I don't think we'll be able to say it. New Hampshire is just going to be close.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-53688267468428031202008-09-23T20:49:00.000-04:002008-09-23T20:49:00.000-04:00Well, I guess you only need two points to make a s...Well, I guess you only need two points to make a string.<BR/><BR/>Flipping through CNN's polls, they seem to tend to be pretty good for Obama (FL +4, MN +14, NM +14, OH +2, PA +9) though there are exceptions such as the McCain +6 in VA on 9/6, and many that fall right where other pollsters have them. I'd like to see more polls of NH before I draw any conclusions that it's moving towards McCain, but it seems to be a real tossup this year (as usual).Jackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04365194237710177589noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-42289207370775464462008-09-23T20:18:00.000-04:002008-09-23T20:18:00.000-04:00String was probably a bit excessive there. But wh...String was probably a bit excessive there. But when you only get two or at most three polls out of New Hampshire in a month, it makes even a, let's say, series of just a couple of polls seem like a string by comparison. But you're right in the polls you cite. Once you remove the Zogby polls, New Hampshire has been narrowing since peaking after Obama clinched.<BR/><BR/>As an aside, I'm a little unsure of CNN's efforts (eg: the 5 point margin you cite) in general at this point in time. I have no reason to doubt their reliability other than they have only now started polling in these states. They are just now setting their baselines for comparison.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-77190818197636180512008-09-23T18:22:00.000-04:002008-09-23T18:22:00.000-04:00Glad to see you're dropping that Zogby garbage. On...Glad to see you're dropping that Zogby garbage. Only legitimate scientific polls should be included. <BR/><BR/>What's the "string of recent polling in the Granite state" that shows McCain ahead that you refer to? Besides the Zogby poll, there are only two straight polls that I see that show McCain ahead there, and less than a week before the first of those, Obama was ahead by 5.Jackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04365194237710177589noreply@blogger.com