tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post2680899834126413374..comments2024-03-26T05:22:08.256-04:00Comments on Frontloading HQ: A 2012 Texas Toss Up?Josh Putnamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06301836432446874997noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-46213795683941692822009-07-14T16:29:00.657-04:002009-07-14T16:29:00.657-04:00I'll take that as a compliment.I'll take that as a compliment.Roberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03379192575044761972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-76447333879026641872009-07-13T19:04:54.711-04:002009-07-13T19:04:54.711-04:00Very succinct, Rob. You've really honed your ...Very succinct, Rob. You've really honed your argument.Josh Putnamhttp://frontloading.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-48532734001077279712009-07-13T18:09:50.348-04:002009-07-13T18:09:50.348-04:00Be careful what you ask for. The national popular ...Be careful what you ask for. The national popular vote means that 6-8 states decide the outcome.Roberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03379192575044761972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-5036090793960099282009-07-13T15:15:06.814-04:002009-07-13T15:15:06.814-04:00Don't assume state-level polls are what will m...Don't assume state-level polls are what will matter in 2012.<br /><br />The National Popular Vote bill has passed 29 state legislative chambers, in small, medium-small, medium, and large states, including one house in Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, and Oregon, and both houses in California, Colorado, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Washington. The bill has been enacted by Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, and Washington. These five states possess 61 electoral votes -- 23% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.<br /><br />See http://www.NationalPopularVote.comAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-40450664932845667762009-07-10T18:47:43.120-04:002009-07-10T18:47:43.120-04:00Hey Jack. Good to hear from you. I assumed you w...Hey Jack. Good to hear from you. I assumed you were on the road. I'm spending my last day in Mike McIntyre's NC-07 district. He hasn't indicated whether he's running for the Burr senate seat next year, but he did fly in from DC this week to deliver a nice, big check for the district.<br /><br />No, it definitely isn't something the GOP should worry about, per se. Not in 2012 at least. If the Hispanic gap continues to grow, the Republican Party will need to worry. But I don't think that will increase enough in Texas to swing the state. 2016 maybe, 2020 even more so. But 2012, not so much. <br /><br />Let's look at 2008. Of the 12 polls conducted in Texas between Super Tuesday and the end of June in Texas, Obama was within single digits of McCain in eight of them. So no, this isn't terribly indicative.<br /><br />...but it is fun to look at. <br /><br />Again AKR, that is a reasonable conclusion, but the ordering will matter (as will the winner-take-all rules on the GOP side). I agree: Iowa is make or break for Palin.Josh Putnamhttp://frontloading.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-88180158716506533392009-07-10T16:01:25.054-04:002009-07-10T16:01:25.054-04:00Hi from Ohio's 12th Congressional District, re...Hi from Ohio's 12th Congressional District, represented by Republican Patrick J. Tiberi.<br /><br />I don't see too much for Republicans to panic over here. A five-point lead among registered voters in Texas probably translates to a somewhat larger likely-voter lead. During the 2008 campaign season, it was not unheard of for a safe state to show close margins early in the process (New Jersey, for example). And this is beyond early.Jackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04365194237710177589noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-83059999554996056822009-07-10T15:36:13.302-04:002009-07-10T15:36:13.302-04:00at this point I see romney getting much of the nor...at this point I see romney getting much of the north east,mormon vote in the utah/nevada/idaho area, and he may get most of the midwest.<br /><br />I see palin getting all of the plain states, and the south states.<br />Iowa is everything. If palin does not win Iowa. it's over. If palin wins Iowa. huckabee will drop out, and she will be in a bloody battle with romney to the end.Simple thoughtshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05735246568110010553noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-15970774057260868102009-07-10T14:49:47.543-04:002009-07-10T14:49:47.543-04:00No, I suspect you're right, AKR. Romney is no...No, I suspect you're right, AKR. Romney is not one of those traditional Texas Republicans. But I don't guess McCain was either. All that will depend on how the calendar sets up. Texas has attempted to move up, but if the parties aren't successful in changing the calendar (and it stays relatively similar to 2008) then it may not matter whether Palin is better than Romney in Texas. It will be over by then.<br /><br />But my bet is on the parties being able to shift things back to a March starting point (after IA, NH, SC and NV in February) at the least. That, though, will have a lot to say about whether Texas matters.Josh Putnamhttp://frontloading.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-54579179736859836922009-07-10T12:28:48.310-04:002009-07-10T12:28:48.310-04:00Texas will go to palin in the primaries she has a ...Texas will go to palin in the primaries she has a very strong base there.<br /><br />she gave rick perry a 12 point boost over KBH <br /><br />romney is NOT a strong in texasSimple thoughtshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05735246568110010553noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-14758403266514878302009-07-10T09:36:58.854-04:002009-07-10T09:36:58.854-04:00Romney is the next-in-line Republican. He tends to...Romney is the next-in-line Republican. He tends to do well when he is waving and smiling but not talking. His numbers tend to go down after a big speech or debate. Obama was not that effective in the debate format early on, but he gained credibility with experience. Romney is doing many Sunday morning TV appearances and is sounding much more polished and effective. If he continues to show improvement, he could prove formidable in the primaries. If he reverts back to his 2008 style, he will drop like a rock.Roberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03379192575044761972noreply@blogger.com