tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post3098604340738529104..comments2024-03-26T05:22:08.256-04:00Comments on Frontloading HQ: An August Look at the Barr/Nader Effect in 2008Josh Putnamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06301836432446874997noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-77211868301368379352008-08-27T10:20:00.000-04:002008-08-27T10:20:00.000-04:00Excellent points everyone. Allen, I should be abl...Excellent points everyone. <BR/><BR/>Allen, <BR/>I should be able to add in the numbers from 2000 pretty easily. Also, in looking at the data yesterday, one thing was clear: being a swing state more often than not means a smaller share of the vote for third parties. Whether Indiana actually is or ends up as a swing state, the fact that it is in the discussion is new for the state. However, I would expect it to come in line with the third party behavior of other swing states if the Hoosier state is close.<BR/><BR/>For clarity's sake, yes Jack, Badnarik's being a native of Indiana seems to have helped. It gave him the largest vote share of any other state. <BR/><BR/>Scott,<BR/>That is a point I meant to bring up. If anything, the evidence is that Nader is actually hurting McCain. I'll try to find a link for that.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-55939705696093600772008-08-27T08:21:00.000-04:002008-08-27T08:21:00.000-04:00I'm not convinced that many voters in swing states...I'm not convinced that many voters in swing states (where it matters) are actually going to vote for 3rd party candidates, no matter what they say at this point when asked by pollsters. While I haven't compared 2000 and 2004 3rd party polls vs. actuals, there was a huge drop from 2000 to 2004 in the number of actual votes for Nader in FL. I think voters learned after the 2000 election that a voting for the "lesser of two evils" might be a better option than voting for a 3rd party candidate.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16556787198127783137noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-74261472125731573262008-08-27T00:47:00.000-04:002008-08-27T00:47:00.000-04:00Most of the polls that were done both with and wit...Most of the polls that were done both with and without Barr/Nader show that Nader is actually taking from McCain. That suggests that Nader is a resting spot for Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents dissatisfied with Obama.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14690577323454357276noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-73637474509057523592008-08-27T00:26:00.000-04:002008-08-27T00:26:00.000-04:00Badnarik probably did well in Indiana because he w...Badnarik probably did well in Indiana because he was originally from the state.Jackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04365194237710177589noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-15895865995580786342008-08-26T23:55:00.000-04:002008-08-26T23:55:00.000-04:00More useful might be looking at the 3rd party 2000...More useful might be looking at the 3rd party 2000 & 2004 polls vs. the actuals, and using that to predict what might happen this year. I would BTW expect 2000 and 2004 to be different, and for this year to be more like 2004.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16556787198127783137noreply@blogger.com