tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post3490211285684049387..comments2024-03-26T05:22:08.256-04:00Comments on Frontloading HQ: How Stuff Works: An Alaska Vacancy in the US SenateJosh Putnamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06301836432446874997noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-16308162327300980392008-11-10T17:29:00.000-05:002008-11-10T17:29:00.000-05:00Right. We're not talking about a big shift here. ...Right. We're not talking about a big shift here. If turnout is low and the drop hits both parties the same way as opposed to the GOP turnout being high and the Democrats' low, that may be enough of a change at the margins to make a difference. <BR/><BR/>As an aside, timing matters too. Let's say Stevens holds on for a while and is forced out sometime during the latter part of 2009. 60-90 days down the road puts that potential special election in a position for the GOP to pump a lot of money into the state and make a Republican win in that race an early indication of how the midterms will go (see IL, LA and MS races from earlier this year, though perhaps not to the same level).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-7088719193502828802008-11-10T16:32:00.000-05:002008-11-10T16:32:00.000-05:00But, there is a theory that Democratic turnout was...But, there is <A HREF="http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/what-in-hell-happened-in-alaska.html" REL="nofollow">a theory</A> that Democratic turnout was low during the general election while Republican turnout was high. That's the most unfavorable possible scenario for the Democrat. While special elections may not normally be ideal for Democrats, it would be better than the general election, as both sides would have depressed turnout.<BR/><BR/>And I like the pun.Jackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04365194237710177589noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-14938170033637511592008-11-10T16:00:00.000-05:002008-11-10T16:00:00.000-05:00Sure Jack. I'm just glad I found that link again ...Sure Jack. I'm just glad I found that link again and stumbled upon the Kos link. <BR/><BR/>The speculation I've read -- and it is limited -- has circulated around the idea that Parnell and not Palin would be the appointment. If she pulls the trigger on an interim appointment (<I>pun intended</I>) that would certainly help his chances in the special. Begich will have the advantage of having just run a campaign, but turnout will be way down and I'd assume that would help the Republican candidate.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-54260409944560390032008-11-10T15:46:00.000-05:002008-11-10T15:46:00.000-05:00Thanks for clearing this up. Great job as always.I...Thanks for clearing this up. Great job as always.<BR/><BR/>I wonder if Democrats will be reluctant to expel Stevens if they suspect Palin will be his replacement.<BR/><BR/>I also wonder what Begich's chances would be in a special election against, say, Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell, who barely lost his primary challenge to Rep. Don Young. Parnell hasn't been convicted of any felonies, to be sure, but he isn't a hero in the state like Stevens is. Also, in a special election, he wouldn't benefit from the presence of Sarah Palin on the presidential ticket or on depressed Democratic turnout from celebrating Obama's victory, as Stevens did.<BR/><BR/>Of course, all of this is moot if by some miracle, Begich pulls this out.Jackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04365194237710177589noreply@blogger.com