tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post3514836824061354608..comments2024-03-26T05:22:08.256-04:00Comments on Frontloading HQ: Obama's Slide: Is Clinton Taking Advantage?Josh Putnamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06301836432446874997noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-55379212564204900412008-05-01T14:57:00.000-04:002008-05-01T14:57:00.000-04:00I wonder what the ditto heads will think if Clinto...I wonder what the ditto heads will think if Clinton goes on to the nomination and then wins the election in November. Maybe they will wish that they hadn't pushed Obama over the cliff.<BR/><BR/>Yes there is an unbelievable amount of new data for your pet project today.Roberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03379192575044761972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-18042325894860739222008-05-01T14:44:00.000-04:002008-05-01T14:44:00.000-04:00The cynical view is that the media pushed too hard...The cynical view is that the media pushed too hard against Obama and needs to restore some stability to the race so that it continues for as long as possible, giving them stories into the summer.<BR/><BR/>In reality, these poll numbers fit in with the news frame of the day: Andrew switches to Obama and Obama's numbers are up. It is an Obama day and the start of a new month.<BR/><BR/>Let's parse this out a bit:<BR/>January: even<BR/>February: Obama<BR/>March/April: Clinton<BR/>May/June: ????<BR/><BR/>It has gotten off to an Obama start. <BR/><BR/>We will have to see. There are some nice, new data to add into ye olde polling spreadsheet.Josh Putnamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06301836432446874997noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-79145004027383999362008-05-01T13:39:00.000-04:002008-05-01T13:39:00.000-04:00The trend lines did not look good, but they seem t...The trend lines did not look good, but they seem to be stabilizing. It is interesting that CNN is making a big deal about the Quinnipac polls in OH, PA and FL. They seem at odds with provious polls, but the interesting thing is that they show Obama beating McCain in PA while pulling close in OH and FL.Roberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03379192575044761972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-11724257576167719392008-05-01T09:27:00.000-04:002008-05-01T09:27:00.000-04:00I did see that Clinton was ahead according to Insi...I did see that Clinton was ahead according to Insider Advantage (via <A HREF="http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/05/poll_hillary_takes_slim_lead_i.php" REL="nofollow">Talking Points Memo</A>) and I'm willing to give Obama the same benefit of the doubt that I gave Clinton in Pennsylvania when Obama was gaining on her there. If more polls start showing the same result, I'll put a bit more stock in that result. <BR/><BR/>Wright may be quiet, but he isn't going away. We jokingly talked yesterday of Bill Clinton and Wright getting together to have a battle over who could stick their foot in their mouth the quickest, but perhaps Wright and Willie Horton should get together and compare notes. That may not be fair, but it is becoming more and more accurate.Josh Putnamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06301836432446874997noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-9228374345432819782008-05-01T09:19:00.000-04:002008-05-01T09:19:00.000-04:00Here's that link from Rob.<A HREF="http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/04/30/clyburn-to-wright-%E2%80%98silence-is-golden%E2%80%99/" REL="nofollow">Here's that link from Rob.</A>Josh Putnamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06301836432446874997noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-39664308460707896682008-05-01T07:16:00.000-04:002008-05-01T07:16:00.000-04:00Obama appears to be in free-fall. Did you see on R...Obama appears to be in free-fall. Did you see on RCP that the Insider Advantage poll has Clinton ahead by 2% in NC? The latest polls in IN are slanting her way in the 8-9% range. Losses in IN and NC by Obama would be devastating to his campaign. He is still doing reasonably well in the invisible primary with superdelegates, but that will change if Clinton does well next week. Did you see that Clyburn is telling Wright to disappear from public view?<BR/><BR/>http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn<BR/>.com/2008/04/30/clyburn-to-wright<BR/>-%E2%80%98silence-is-golden<BR/>%E2%80%99/Roberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03379192575044761972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-33984835824011997282008-04-30T22:30:00.000-04:002008-04-30T22:30:00.000-04:00Fortunately for Obama next week's contests are on ...Fortunately for Obama next week's contests are on "friendlier" territory than West Virginia and Kentucky will be in the next couple of weeks. Clinton would have a streak of her own if those two were up next. They are the two states, behind Arkansas, where she has the biggest McCain margins. <BR/><BR/>But yes, "friendly" as they may be, North Carolina and Indiana won't be a cake walk for Obama in this new post-post-Wright environment. <BR/><BR/>I meant to say this at the group today but your comments last week in the Moyers/Wright post were right on. Why now? The Moyers appearance wasn't bad but the Press Club stuff has killed Obama in the media. <BR/><BR/>Never a dull moment in this race.Josh Putnamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06301836432446874997noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-65340913282185664512008-04-30T19:28:00.000-04:002008-04-30T19:28:00.000-04:00If Obama can't stop the slide, Clinton will have a...If Obama can't stop the slide, Clinton will have an argument. Next week is critical for both Democrats.Roberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03379192575044761972noreply@blogger.com