tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post3592808222380818286..comments2024-03-18T07:11:29.068-04:00Comments on Frontloading HQ: The Electoral College Map (7/30/08)Josh Putnamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06301836432446874997noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-204349658422287812008-08-01T16:54:00.000-04:002008-08-01T16:54:00.000-04:00Glenn,I'll be honest with you. I don't know. I h...Glenn,<BR/>I'll be honest with you. I don't know. I have been asked about this a few times and have had several discussions concerning that with other people. I've decided to re-examine things following the conventions and may cut off some of the slack then. <BR/><BR/>I'm currently in the process of evaluating the movement of all the polling in July. It may be instructive to look at the polling since Obama clinched the nomination, and look at the difference between that and the average as it stands with everything since Super Tuesday. That "clinch point" is probably the clearest line of demarcation we can draw. <BR/><BR/>I should be able to do that without too much trouble and get something out over the weekend.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-33133477446649899952008-08-01T16:18:00.000-04:002008-08-01T16:18:00.000-04:00Do you think there would be a noticeable differenc...Do you think there would be a noticeable difference if some of the oldest polls in each state were de-weighted?<BR/><BR/>After all, people's opinions of Obama and McCain on Super Tuesday are different from their opinions of them today.<BR/><BR/>For a name for the graphic, best suggestion I can think of is "The Cutting Edge"Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-90370236033545733632008-08-01T09:57:00.000-04:002008-08-01T09:57:00.000-04:00As of right now, that's what I'm saying. FL, OH a...As of right now, that's what I'm saying. FL, OH and PA (in that order) are states that McCain would need to break the 270 barrier. However, PA could just as easily be replaced by CO or MI (each has enough EVs to put McCain over the top), both of which are behind PA in the rankings (from McCain's perspective), but not by much. In fact, the way both are trending, they are likely to come out on the other side of PA in our average if the current trends continue.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-76736954281031722972008-08-01T09:16:00.000-04:002008-08-01T09:16:00.000-04:00What you are saying, Josh, is that McCain needs al...What you are saying, Josh, is that McCain needs all three of the big ones (FL, OH & PA) to win, But Obama only needs PA. Very interesting. Once again, as I have been pointing out, other polls have Obama stronger in FL than you do. However, McCain seems to be getting the bounce after a week that was incredibly positive for Obama and negative for McCain! I suspect we will have many more twists and turns before it is all over.Roberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03379192575044761972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-85830599996192603402008-07-31T21:53:00.000-04:002008-07-31T21:53:00.000-04:00Good suggestions everyone. I sincerely appreciate...Good suggestions everyone. I sincerely appreciate the input. <BR/><BR/>I've already added the electoral votes for each state for the table to go in Sunday's update. And I have played around with some other additions as well. However, the problem I run into there is that the table begins to get crowded and a little messy. What I may do is put some mock ups in a post tomorrow and see what people think. I think this will ultimately be a useful addition, but we may need to tinker with it a bit to get it right.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-75176995175573835132008-07-31T20:44:00.000-04:002008-07-31T20:44:00.000-04:00I also like this new addition, and agree with cbsm...I also like this new addition, and agree with cbsmith42 that the EV's of each state should be included, perhaps in parentheses following the name. To make that really useful, the "extra" EV's each candidate would get if they won the yellow state and all more favorable to them should accompany the table. For example, in your current table Obama's number would be +3, meaning that if he loses PA he'd have to make up 18 EV's somewhere else. McCain's number would be +16, meaning that if he lost PA he'd just need 2 EV's from somewhere else. So McCain could trade PA for NH and still win. But Nevada alone wouldn't make up for PA for Obama.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14690577323454357276noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-68116198080588381602008-07-31T20:43:00.000-04:002008-07-31T20:43:00.000-04:00This comment has been removed by the author.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14690577323454357276noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-89254128772620914442008-07-31T12:47:00.000-04:002008-07-31T12:47:00.000-04:00Thanks for this, Josh. I can see myself printing o...Thanks for this, Josh. I can see myself printing out this table on Election Night and using it to follow along as results are announced on TV.<BR/><BR/>(Well, an updated table, of course :)dwbhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07555508658252128259noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-63473651327491567312008-07-30T23:08:00.000-04:002008-07-30T23:08:00.000-04:00Whoops. My scenario assumes that Obama would need ...Whoops. My scenario assumes that Obama would need all 21 of PA's EV's. Nevermind :)cbsmith42https://www.blogger.com/profile/04411975148437868485noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-14512232906427069742008-07-30T22:58:00.000-04:002008-07-30T22:58:00.000-04:00Excellent. Love "the new graphic." (Sorry can't th...Excellent. Love "the new graphic." (Sorry can't think of a snappy name). <BR/><BR/>The one addition I would consider is the electoral votes for each state within the table. This saves the reader/viewer from having to cross reference with the map. But, it would also be useful in this scenario: <BR/>PA (21) is shaded yellow; <BR/>Obama loses PA;<BR/>NV (5) is the next closest in the spectrum but, because it's only worth 5 EV's, Obama carrying NV (while losing PA) doesn't win the election;<BR/>OH (20), as the next in line, would also be necessary and you could leave the math to us :) but it would perhaps give us a richer view. <BR/><BR/>Don't get me wrong, though. I like the spectrum analysis... hey, maybe that'd make a good name (?): "Electoral Spectrum Analysis" or "Electoral Vote Spectrum"cbsmith42https://www.blogger.com/profile/04411975148437868485noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-88440450639173219522008-07-30T14:23:00.000-04:002008-07-30T14:23:00.000-04:00Useful, cogent, informative.Your jib appears to be...Useful, cogent, informative.<BR/><BR/>Your jib appears to be cut well, sir.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com