tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post543924542776563570..comments2024-03-26T05:22:08.256-04:00Comments on Frontloading HQ: The Electoral College Map (8/6/08)Josh Putnamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06301836432446874997noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-81896611970446126662008-08-07T19:34:00.000-04:002008-08-07T19:34:00.000-04:00No, that's not cheating. That's considered doing ...No, that's not cheating. That's considered doing your homework. I never said this was a closed-note test.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-34894687665418196892008-08-07T14:38:00.000-04:002008-08-07T14:38:00.000-04:00Thank you! Though I must admit I checked other sit...Thank you! Though I must admit I checked other sites (well, just 538) to get an idea of the polling done before and after June 1.<BR/><BR/>Is that considered cheating? It did give me some extra knowledge but didn't exactly give me the answer.Jackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04365194237710177589noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-5804403087758684182008-08-07T13:39:00.000-04:002008-08-07T13:39:00.000-04:00Oh and Jack, you are now two for two. Good guess ...Oh and Jack, you are now two for two. Good guess on Ohio.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-29236647388076658912008-08-07T11:01:00.000-04:002008-08-07T11:01:00.000-04:00Here's that Cost link from Rob.The Victory Line is...<A HREF="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/2008/08/swing_state_review_pennsylvani.html" REL="nofollow">Here's that Cost link from Rob</A>.<BR/><BR/>The Victory Line isn't being moved. This is a "What if" scenario and nothing more. <BR/><BR/>I'll have that up shortly. I had to move offices this morning so I'm working on a bit of a delay.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-80912714011618299292008-08-07T10:02:00.000-04:002008-08-07T10:02:00.000-04:00Map lovers need to look at Jay Cost's analysis of ...Map lovers need to look at Jay Cost's analysis of PA before Josh moves the current Victory Line to some other state.<BR/><BR/>http://www.realclearpolitics.com<BR/>/horseraceblog/2008/08/swing_state<BR/>_review_pennsylvani.htmlRoberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03379192575044761972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-16129812477173639812008-08-06T20:55:00.000-04:002008-08-06T20:55:00.000-04:00Then again, it was pretty clear who the nominee wa...Then again, it was pretty clear who the nominee was going to be in March, though I suppose there are a few Clinton (and Ron Paul) diehards who still question who the nominees will be.<BR/><BR/>538 might tend to cut them off in late April but those polls don't get much weight. June is very sensible. For states that haven't been polled since before June, you can use their last poll or their average.<BR/><BR/>I'm going to hazard a guess that it's going to be Michigan. Or Colorado. Or Ohio. I'm one for one on this site (in the match the VP with the President quiz) so I'm going to risk that and guess Ohio.Jackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04365194237710177589noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-68153185934346061452008-08-06T20:16:00.000-04:002008-08-06T20:16:00.000-04:00Jack,"Older" in this case refers to any poll out p...Jack,<BR/>"Older" in this case refers to any poll out prior to June. Obviously this will shift things in Obama's direction in several cases. I glanced through where 538's decay function (the half life equation Nate uses) cuts the polls off and in most cases that fell in mid- to late April or early May. I thought about using a similar sort of cut point, but opted for June instead. That way we have the general election polling with Clinton removed. Now, it could certainly be argued that a handful of those early June polls were conducted prior to Clinton dropping out. However, as of May 31 and the RBC meeting, it was pretty clear who the nominee would be. <BR/><BR/>This cut off isn't without flaws, but as I say, this is for purely hypothetical purposes.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-91701977736633913962008-08-06T19:36:00.000-04:002008-08-06T19:36:00.000-04:00I can't stand the drama! I do have a guess as to w...I can't stand the drama! I do have a guess as to what it would be, although that might change depending on what you consider to be "older polls."<BR/><BR/>Just for fun, I figured out which state it would be using 538's numbers. It's Colorado. (I'm not referring to their "tipping-point states" graphic, but to the state that would push either one over the top.)Jackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04365194237710177589noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-32963798071946848232008-08-06T17:59:00.000-04:002008-08-06T17:59:00.000-04:00Here's that Bayh link from Rob.Yeah, I haven't set...<A HREF="http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/08/06/campaign.wrap/index.html" REL="nofollow">Here's that Bayh link from Rob</A>.<BR/><BR/>Yeah, I haven't settled in on breaking point, Rob. I'll tell you what I'll go and collect all those suggestions and put them here (or in their own post) for a vote. Who says democracy is dead?<BR/><BR/>Jack, <BR/>Glenn, who was commenting here over the weekend, wanted to see what things would look like if I removed some of the older polls from our weighted average. I hope to have that hypothetical up tomorrow. Just as a sneak peek: PA won't be the as yet unnamed state in yellow and Massachusetts won't be too close either.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-50838632576631499952008-08-06T16:55:00.000-04:002008-08-06T16:55:00.000-04:00If Pennsylvania remains the yellow state (I'm stay...If Pennsylvania remains the yellow state (I'm staying neutral in the debate as to what to call it) - I'm pretty comfortable as an Obama supporter.<BR/><BR/>But if I only saw the Massachusetts polls, I would be conceding the election. In 1972, for instance, George McGovern won Massachusetts by nine points. McGovern, of course, did not win any other states (but did win DC).Jackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04365194237710177589noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-49944607895344556482008-08-06T16:26:00.000-04:002008-08-06T16:26:00.000-04:00The breaking point doesn't cut it. I liked Scott's...The breaking point doesn't cut it. I liked Scott's proposal of 'The Victory Line' for the yellow state. The last few polls on RCP suggest that the narrowing between Obama and McCain has stopped, at least temporarily. Looks like Obama is going to Bayh-pass Indiana for the time being. See<BR/><BR/>http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS<BR/>/08/06/campaign.wrap/index.html<BR/><BR/>You need to scroll down to get the Obama/Bayh details.Roberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03379192575044761972noreply@blogger.com