tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post5743110350063017706..comments2024-03-18T07:11:29.068-04:00Comments on Frontloading HQ: What Would Happen If...Josh Putnamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06301836432446874997noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-45314627813893347692008-08-08T08:25:00.000-04:002008-08-08T08:25:00.000-04:00Rob,I'd imagine, given the state of things in the ...Rob,<BR/>I'd imagine, given the state of things in the July wrap-up post that you are correct. McCain would hold some sort of advantage. If I have time later today I'll calculate that and post it (though not in as detailed a manner). And that's the problem with picking a point to cut off early polling. <BR/><BR/>If you think about it, McCain was deprived of a similar bounce in the polls because of the competition in the Democratic race. It would be hard to say that McCain's "gains" in that March 5 to April 21 period were due to his winning the GOP nomination or because of Wright or bitter-gate putting a drag on Obama's numbers.<BR/><BR/>I'll actually have a post up shortly concerning you other two points.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-45353097389613764372008-08-08T08:16:00.000-04:002008-08-08T08:16:00.000-04:00Looks good. I am glad you adopted the victory line...Looks good. I am glad you adopted the victory line terminology. The incorporation of June polls is a definite boost to Obama. If you were to drop those polls and go with July polls only, the results would look more favorable to McCain.<BR/><BR/>A tip of the hat to Allen. No VP announcements before the Olympics or Obama's Hawaiian vacation. Expect the McCain folks to make a big deal of that in a forthcoming ad at the risk of hurting his chances in HI!Roberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03379192575044761972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-24588344769888244202008-08-07T14:42:00.000-04:002008-08-07T14:42:00.000-04:00I will be keeping both lines of analysis going, so...I will be keeping both lines of analysis going, so the option you mention is certainly on the table, Jack. If were my course of action, I would likely have a comparison post on a monthly basis (one similar to the one I put out on Monday).<BR/><BR/>We'll see. I don't want any of this to appear as if I'm doing any of this based on whim. This option may be the most pragmatic one though.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-44719843656321121152008-08-07T14:19:00.000-04:002008-08-07T14:19:00.000-04:00Of course you should switch your methodology! This...Of course you should switch your methodology! This map is 22 votes better than the other one!<BR/><BR/>Okay, now to put aside my bias and speak objectively:<BR/><BR/>Perhaps you could keep your methodology but at some point after the two conventions are over (say, early October), you could do something similar, comparing the actual map with your current methodology to the polls after the two conventions?Jackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04365194237710177589noreply@blogger.com