tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post6361931709718272624..comments2024-03-26T05:22:08.256-04:00Comments on Frontloading HQ: Is Obama Getting a Bounce from His Trip Abroad? A Different ApproachJosh Putnamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06301836432446874997noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-77682431262777444862008-07-25T16:24:00.000-04:002008-07-25T16:24:00.000-04:00Nice addition, Scott. And thanks for the plug ove...Nice addition, Scott. And thanks for the plug over at 538 yesterday.<BR/><BR/>If leaners (McCain leaners) are considering Obama then that group of voters may be entering the <A HREF="http://www.nationaljournal.com/njonline/ot_20080722_4702.php" REL="nofollow">"comfort zone"</A> Charlie Cook was talking about the other day over at the National Journal. <BR/><BR/>Hat tip to Rob via Paul Gurian on that link. Interesting.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-11737222398112590272008-07-25T16:04:00.000-04:002008-07-25T16:04:00.000-04:00Interesting and provocative analysis, but I see th...Interesting and provocative analysis, but I see the numbers differently--it's not Obama gaining leaners, so much as McCain losing his. <BR/><BR/>To see this look at the Rasmussen national trackin poll. Since July 6, here's the number of leaners going to Obama each day, in chronological order: <BR/><BR/>3 3 3 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 4 3 2 3 3<BR/><BR/>Do you see a pattern there? I don't. <BR/><BR/>But what about the number of leaners going to McCain?<BR/><BR/>3 3 3 4 3 3 3 4 5 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 3 4 3<BR/><BR/>There's a hint of something toward the end...McCain <I>loses</I> leaners.<BR/><BR/>No comparable sign of a loss of solid McCain in the tracking poll, but a couple of point increase in Obama solid in the last few days. Also, with the exception of one day, every result since July 4 shows the same number of true undecideds/other (7 or 8%).<BR/><BR/>So, put it all together: the tracking poll shows McCain losing leaners, and Obama gaining solid, but no significant change in the other categories. Presumably that means Obama leaners are switching to Obama solid, but being replenished by either McCain leaners or undecideds (who in turn are replenished by McCain leaners). <BR/><BR/>Is that consistent with the recent state polls? To see, look at the number of McCain leaners in those polls:<BR/><BR/>New Mexico: 2<BR/>Pennsylvania: 3<BR/>New Hampshire: 4<BR/>Minnesota: 2<BR/>Florida: 2<BR/>Ohio: 6<BR/>Colorado: 5<BR/><BR/>Before the trip:<BR/><BR/>Maine: 5<BR/>Georgia: 5<BR/>Arkansas: 5<BR/>Alaska: 4<BR/>Virginia: 4<BR/>Nevada: 5<BR/>Oregon: 3<BR/>North Carolina: 3<BR/>Kansas: 6<BR/>Minnesota: 2, 3<BR/>Michigan: 3<BR/>Iowa: 3<BR/>Washington: 4<BR/>South Dakota: 3<BR/>Louisiana: 2<BR/>Wisconsin: 3<BR/>North Dakota: 4<BR/>Illinois: 4<BR/>New Jersey: 5<BR/>Missouri: 3<BR/><BR/>Since the trip started, three states show only 2% leaning toward McCain. Before the trip, that only happened in Louisiana and once in Minnesota. Considering the number of states in each group, this looks to me like it <I>might</I> be more than coincidence.<BR/><BR/>If so, it's very bad news for the McCain campaign. If Obama were gaining leaners, that would be OK--a typical bounce. The news goes away and the leaners go back to undecided. But if McCain is losing leaners, it's a sign they <I>really are</I> considering Obama. They were not just saying their undecided but leaning McCain to be polite, they are truly undecided.<BR/><BR/>McCain can't succeed playing tug of war with Obama over McCain's own weak supporters. Even if McCain wins that battle, he loses the war, because his core + leaners doesn't quite beat Obama's core + leaners. This is a terrible trend for the McCain campaign and an almost unbelievably good one for Obama. We'll see if it is confirmed over the next few weeks.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14690577323454357276noreply@blogger.com