tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post6618930933214951446..comments2024-03-26T05:22:08.256-04:00Comments on Frontloading HQ: New Zealand Schoolgirls, Simpleminded Voters and Presidential ElectionsJosh Putnamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06301836432446874997noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-50539774321945750882008-06-24T20:32:00.000-04:002008-06-24T20:32:00.000-04:00Good point Scott. There's definitely a weird dyna...Good point Scott. There's definitely a weird dynamic at work there. Obama peaks in the RCP average on June 9, just after Clinton's concession (and yeah, there's a lag there so it may actually coincide with Clinton's withdrawal.). Then the drop off begins for Obama (while the McCain slide that began just after Montana/South Dakota continues). <BR/><BR/>And then that turns around about the time of Tim Russert's death, Obama's comment about bringing a gun to a knife fight, father's day and Al Gore's endorsement. That rise has not stopped for Obama and McCain's slide continues.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-38939241329755445592008-06-24T18:35:00.000-04:002008-06-24T18:35:00.000-04:00Here are the -Thinking-Without/dp/0316172324" REL=...Here are the <A HREF="http://www.amazon.com/Blink-Power<br/>-Thinking-Without/dp/0316172324" REL="nofollow">Gladwell</A> and <A HREF="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html" REL="nofollow">RCP</A> links from Rob.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-2984334607915149152008-06-24T18:34:00.000-04:002008-06-24T18:34:00.000-04:00Looking at the graph, it seems like the shift in t...Looking at the graph, it seems like the shift in the polls since the primaries ended were in two stages. First, those polled moved away from <I>both</I> candidates and into the undecided/other/won't vote camp. That makes sense, because the general election is suddenly "real" rather than a hypothetical match-up, and people are reassessing. The next stage was a shift from McCain to Obama, or, more likely, a shift from McCain to undecided/other/won't vote, and a shift from undecided/won't vote to Obama. The trends don't show up as clearly in the Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls, but I think those two polls don't offer "other" or "won't vote" as a choice, and Rasmussen pushes undecideds to say which way they're leaning. That may explain some of the difference between the trends in the tracking polls and the others.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14690577323454357276noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-16946694608502347952008-06-24T16:09:00.000-04:002008-06-24T16:09:00.000-04:00With respect to our discussion this afternoon, it ...With respect to our discussion this afternoon, it looks like the steady increase in Obama's lead in the national polls since June 2 has been more of a loss of votes for McCain rather than an increase for Obama.<BR/><BR/>http://www.realclearpolitics.com<BR/>/epolls/2008/president/us/general<BR/>_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.htmlRoberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03379192575044761972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-35756210350613709162008-06-24T15:47:00.000-04:002008-06-24T15:47:00.000-04:00If you think that is scary, Malcom Gladwell in his...If you think that is scary, Malcom Gladwell in his bestseller, Blink, contends on page 13 that students seeing 2 seconds of videotape of an instructor makes the same evluation of that instructor as students who attend the class for a semester!<BR/><BR/>http://www.amazon.com/Blink-Power<BR/>-Thinking-Without/dp/0316172324<BR/><BR/>Search inside for "student evaluations"Roberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03379192575044761972noreply@blogger.com