tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post6858758331986992376..comments2024-03-26T05:22:08.256-04:00Comments on Frontloading HQ: The Electoral College Map (10/27/08)Josh Putnamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06301836432446874997noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-11920749910941040882008-10-27T13:56:00.000-04:002008-10-27T13:56:00.000-04:00I didn't link to my comment as I wasn't sure at th...I didn't link to my comment as I wasn't sure at the time how to link to an individual comment (I have since figured it out).<BR/><BR/>I've been thinking about Arizona a bit too in regards to where it would fall had McCain not been on the ballot, and what its future is. The demographic changes do suggest purple-to-blue, as you suggest. The high Hispanic and native populations should make a difference, and the state did go for Clinton in 1996. But it might be a bit slow to switch over; <A HREF="http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/arizona" REL="nofollow">a number of other factors</A> seem to help Republicans. What we might have in a few years is a state that based on its demographics should favor Democrats, but in reality does not as much as the demographics might suggest.Jackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04365194237710177589noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-56493539916553318472008-10-27T13:41:00.000-04:002008-10-27T13:41:00.000-04:00And Rasmussen has Arizona down to 5 points...And <A HREF="http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/arizona/election_2008_arizona_presidential_election" REL="nofollow">Rasmussen</A> has Arizona down to 5 points...Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14690577323454357276noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-73377515421599295912008-10-27T10:52:00.000-04:002008-10-27T10:52:00.000-04:00What? You didn't want to link to that, Jack?Arizo...What? You didn't want to <A HREF="http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2008/10/open-thread-obama-landslide-how-far.html?showComment=1223575500000#c8611173919136730473" REL="nofollow">link to that</A>, Jack?<BR/><BR/>Arizona has been underpolled as most of the home states have been this cycle. And it has been a bit of an anomaly in that pocket of states between California and Texas. Throw out Utah, and Arizona is the only red state in that Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico group of states. The same sort of demographic changes have been happening there, but the state had been insulated by McCain's presence on the ballot and the lack of polling information. But now it looks as if even Arizona is not immune to the changes to the dynamics of the race brought about by the economic downturn.<BR/><BR/>I suspect that if Obama wins, and McCain doesn't opt for a repeat four years from now (No, I don't think that's likely, but I felt the need to say it.), then Arizona will be purple to blue.<BR/><BR/>...if the economy isn't still in the tank and Al Qaeda hasn't opened up bases in the US. <BR/><BR/>Speaking of pollsters with Republican house effects -- to put it in the 538 vernacular -- <A HREF="http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1612" REL="nofollow">Zogby</A> has some non-internet numbers up in some battleground states this morning. Even with that 2004 baseline built in, Obama has leads in 6 of the 8 states surveyed. A day after McCain touted the firm's numbers on Meet the Press, this data isn't a good sign for the GOP.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-90885837181632177742008-10-26T22:39:00.000-04:002008-10-26T22:39:00.000-04:00I would never say "I told you so" — I...I would never say "I told you so" — I'm just not that kind of guy — but in the Obama landslide thread I did suggest that Arizona could go blue in an extreme case. It would be nice as revenge for Tennessee 2000 (and by the way, Gore won the electoral vote that year too).<BR/><BR/>The Georgia poll is nice too; another pollster that tends to lean Republican puts it in single digits.Jackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04365194237710177589noreply@blogger.com