tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post7142726313919638370..comments2024-03-18T07:11:29.068-04:00Comments on Frontloading HQ: The Electoral College Map (8/17/08)Josh Putnamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06301836432446874997noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-33000312298710184042008-08-19T23:54:00.000-04:002008-08-19T23:54:00.000-04:00Hello everyone, I'm happy to have been lead to thi...Hello everyone, I'm happy to have been lead to this site. Much relieved to find informed reason after the plummet of the "comment average" on 538. I think I remember SLS posting excellent comments there but there no more? Well, I better say something intelligent, simple though I am. Clinton because progressive politics tell you to be inclusive, that is strength. O and C lapped the field, there is a clear separation. Best outcome is she isn't made to walk the plank, that creates a great deal of negative sentiment up to and including Clinton in 12. I know what you mean by safe but safe gives McCain the opportunity to add his own "exciting woman" as his change act and to build a positive narrative atop the negative attacks which appear to be the source of his recent traction. That's too easy, make the old man work harder than that. The way C has behaved she does not deserve it perhaps, but O should suck it up for the good of the country and the party. As to practical, in brief, if you’re self financed and relying on GOTV, you can't make it easier for yourself than bringing aboard C with her troops and money raising potential. It doesn't matter about the teapot tempests the cable news makes of the Clintons. She will deliver Ohio for him, that's what matters. I think O is sharp but nothing makes me doubt that assessment more than his seemingly devil may care attitude toward Ohio; i.e. show up there for once Mr. B. The announcement should be in Cleveland. McCain's water compact blunder has created a real opportunity to flip NM and CO but Ohio is easier and death to McCain if he loses it...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-60894155850803377692008-08-18T13:42:00.000-04:002008-08-18T13:42:00.000-04:00I still say that Obama is in deep trouble. McCain ...I still say that Obama is in deep trouble. McCain is making the election a referendum on Obama. Obama needs to make the election a referendum on Bush and the Republicans. Obama's slide may not become evident until September, but it is starting now. Kerry's slide did not become evident until after his convention, but the swift-boating was in August.Roberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03379192575044761972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-15841840972553252862008-08-18T13:05:00.000-04:002008-08-18T13:05:00.000-04:00Scott,I agree. Linking Obama to Kerry given the w...Scott,<BR/>I agree. Linking Obama to Kerry given the way the Obama campaign has been run thus far may have been premature. At the same time, though, he has to show that he can navigate these troubled August waters. He's in a bit of a tricky spot here and needs to proceed carefully lest he actually follow Kerry's path. <BR/><BR/>I wish Holbrook would have responded to <A HREF="http://election08data.blogspot.com/2008/08/convention-bumps.html#c3927930561697066650" REL="nofollow">your point on his blog</A>. You raised an interesting conundrum for this cycle.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-58141207842831493032008-08-18T12:13:00.000-04:002008-08-18T12:13:00.000-04:00Obama has had a slide in the polls recently, but t...Obama has had a slide in the polls recently, but the comments above mine come off sounding much more negative for Obama than I think is warranted.<BR/><BR/>In a low-political-news period, there's been a little bit of movement toward McCain; i.e. toward a toss-up race. But <I>that</I> kind of movement before the conventions doesn't mean much. Remember: Kerry's August slide was <I>after</I> his convention. <BR/><BR/>If things were sliding toward Obama right now, considering negative attacks, Obama's vacation, Russia behaving badly, and that Obama is ahead, it would signal that McCain was in very deep trouble. As it is, it's just expected movement in a race that shows Obama with the upper hand for now, but vulnerable if something were to change.<BR/><BR/>If Obama makes a big change in his plans now (e.g. for VP), he risks turning a subtle shift into a flailing nightmare. But that has not been his style; I doubt there's a lot of alarm in the Obama campaign right now.<BR/><BR/>(Incidentally, I have to give a piece of evidence for the argument that there <I>is</I> serious deterioration for Obama. For the first time since April, Obama's RCP National average has dropped significantly below 46%. I'd attribute that to a quirk of averaging, with the high-undecided IBD/Tipp poll being 1/5 of the mix. But it does mean that average can no longer be considered ultra-stable.)Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14690577323454357276noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-30282031163255843702008-08-18T10:15:00.000-04:002008-08-18T10:15:00.000-04:00Yeah, this is looking -- How should I say this? --...Yeah, this is looking -- How should I say this? -- Kerry-esque. August has not been a good month for the Democrats in the last two cycles.<BR/><BR/>I'll have something up in a bit about VP selection, but it won't be about Obama's choice.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-27417315564381847832008-08-18T09:41:00.000-04:002008-08-18T09:41:00.000-04:00Obama is slipping nationally and in the states. He...Obama is slipping nationally and in the states. He must have four really good weeks or he could be toast! The polls by this time on September 15th will be critical. A pattern is developing that he may not be able to stop. I'm not sure a safe choice for VP is an option. He may need to go with Clinton or Richardson.Roberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03379192575044761972noreply@blogger.com