tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post7162520366643808634..comments2024-03-26T05:22:08.256-04:00Comments on Frontloading HQ: Revisiting Candidacy Announcements: What's Different About 2012?Josh Putnamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06301836432446874997noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-31255927602543610132011-01-19T10:24:02.286-05:002011-01-19T10:24:02.286-05:00Matt,
I'll grant you that point. There is a hi...Matt,<br />I'll grant you that point. There is a higher level of uncertainty surrounding the prospective candidates for this nomination than what we have witnessed in the recent past. My unscientific reading on it is that of the top tier of Gingrich, Huckabee, Palin and Romney, Palin is the true wild card and the other three are in barring some intervening factor (ie: Palin getting in the race, scandal, health issues, etc.) are running. I agree that there is some variation there, though. There is no 100% certainty among any of them.<br /><br />PS: I think we're less than 12 months away from Iowa. Until some of the state legislatures in these February primary states act in accordance with the parties' rules, I have no reason to believe that Iowa and the other exempt states will go on the dates the Democratic Party has specified.Josh Putnamhttp://frontloading.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-67528455184718457772011-01-19T01:15:10.584-05:002011-01-19T01:15:10.584-05:00Agree with most of this, and it's a game of ch...Agree with most of this, and it's a game of chicken right now. But I would disagree about one thing. You say: <br /><br />At the end of the day, we have a pretty good idea who is running for the Republican nomination. <br /><br />I think that outside of Romney and Pawlenty, the odds of any other specific major candidate (Palin, Barbour, Gingrich, Huckabee, etc) running is less than 75%. What's fascinating to me is that we have no idea what the final field will look like. And the Iowa caucuses are less then 13 months away - and maybe less than 12 months away - oh wait a minute - that's your job to figure that out.Matthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02126730290750804530noreply@blogger.com