tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post7196650913878306475..comments2024-03-26T05:22:08.256-04:00Comments on Frontloading HQ: Gender Gap or Gender Deficit in 2012?Josh Putnamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06301836432446874997noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-22635363452843234012009-10-25T22:00:46.564-04:002009-10-25T22:00:46.564-04:00I do like the horizontal bars better than the vert...I do like the horizontal bars better than the vertical ones. <br /><br />Agree/disagree (for those that witnessed the before and after)?Josh Putnamhttp://frontloading.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-54748273655988085692009-10-25T21:59:39.740-04:002009-10-25T21:59:39.740-04:00Jack,
I'll concede that you may be correct in ...Jack,<br />I'll concede that you may be correct in an overall sense, but I still think that this measure is somewhat useful in this particular case with Palin. Yes, I agree with Mystery Politico earlier that this merely mimics the general trend in the poll itself, but in this case, the fact that Palin is behind among women is still something of a surprising result. And it isn't offset by anything.<br /><br />More than anything, it is another way of looking at the overall horse race, but through the lens of the gender divide.Josh Putnamhttp://frontloading.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-36274711576840330092009-10-25T19:52:12.902-04:002009-10-25T19:52:12.902-04:00Not really sure if the measure, as currently descr...Not really sure if the measure, as currently described is of any value. It will correlate almost exactly with the actual total deficit, except as if there's a 50-50 gender split in the electorate rather than, say, 53-47. To prove that Republicans' advantage among men doesn't offset the disadvantage among women, one can more accurately look at the total deficit in the polls rather than use this measure.Jackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04365194237710177589noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-92063174853832389592009-10-25T09:33:35.060-04:002009-10-25T09:33:35.060-04:00MP,
I think you make a solid point here. This stil...MP,<br />I think you make a solid point here. This still seems like more of a semantics issue, but it is definitely worth addressing for the clarity of the post. <br /><br />The way the gender gap is typically calculated, you simply take the share of the male vote the winning candidate had and subtract the share the winning candidate had among women. <br /><br />Given the 2008 exit polls, Obama enjoyed a <a href="http://www.usnews.com/articles/opinion/2008/11/06/data-points-gender-gap-in-the-2008-election.html" rel="nofollow">7 point gender gap</a>. Now, if we expand that to the data here, Huckabee has the highest gender gap while Romney and Palin tie for the lowest (a 4 points). Of course, that masks the extent to which they are trailing Obama and that was what I was attempting to show with the "deficit".<br /><br />I'll clean up the figures so they are clearer on this point and get that (re-)posted some time during the day. Thanks for the comments guys. This will be a better post because of it.Josh Putnamhttp://frontloading.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-83367299371192436532009-10-24T22:21:18.563-04:002009-10-24T22:21:18.563-04:00I'm with Jack. I don't quite get what is ...I'm with Jack. I don't quite get what is the point of calling this a "gender gap". It's just showing that Palin is more unpopular with all voters than Huckabee and Romney. Gender doesn't have anything to do with it.<br /><br />If you had a case where Candidate A was tied with Candidate B among men, but led Candidate B by 40 points among women, I'd call that a 40 point gender gap. But if Candidate A led Candidate B by 40 points among both men *and* women, I'd say that there was no gender gap, as both men and women had the same opinions of the two candidates. In the latter case, Candidate B is really *really* unpopular, more so than in the former case, but there is no differential in the candidates' popularity between men and women, so no gender gap.astrojobhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06643324377144064814noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-65649257099618535562009-10-24T13:48:40.047-04:002009-10-24T13:48:40.047-04:00Good point Jack. I need to make a clearer distinc...Good point Jack. I need to make a clearer distinction between the gender gap you describe and the "total gender gap" I've constructed here. The main point is that one at the conclusion: that male support is offsetting the loss among women (or at least neutral) for Huckabee and Romney, but is not in Palin's case.<br /><br />I'll get that fixed as soon as I'm done with this Change Commission post I'm working on.<br /><br />Thanks.Josh Putnamhttp://frontloading.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-50849618543009812512009-10-24T13:27:58.919-04:002009-10-24T13:27:58.919-04:00I'm confused. Why are you adding the differenc...I'm confused. Why are you adding the differences in support between men and women? Shouldn't you subtract? So if Palin's down 17 among women and 8 among men, isn't that a 9-point gender gap?Jackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04365194237710177589noreply@blogger.com