tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post7900998446056270117..comments2024-03-26T05:22:08.256-04:00Comments on Frontloading HQ: State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (6/30/09)Josh Putnamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06301836432446874997noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-89454416517912634732009-07-01T21:11:52.452-04:002009-07-01T21:11:52.452-04:00New Jerseyans don't much like many politicians...New Jerseyans don't much like many politicians, even though they elect them by overwhelming margins. As <a href="http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2009/07/numbers-for-obama-senators-not-great-in.html" rel="nofollow">Public Policy Polling</a> writes, "there are plenty of examples in recent New Jersey history of voters expressing dislike for a politician and then reelecting him anyway. Frank Lautenberg is a good case in point- polling in 2006 showed him as one of the least popular Senators in the country and in late 2007 just 36% of voters in the state said he should be reelected. He nevertheless won an easy 56-42 victory last fall."<br /><br />Even Obama has only a 53% approval rating in NJ despite winning the state with 57.27% of the vote.Jackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04365194237710177589noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-1143509474945677132009-07-01T20:34:54.805-04:002009-07-01T20:34:54.805-04:00Well crap. Rob beat me by one minute and had a be...Well crap. Rob beat me by one minute and had a better response. Oh well.Josh Putnamhttp://frontloading.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-30020621272312351952009-07-01T20:33:55.046-04:002009-07-01T20:33:55.046-04:00Would something like that really happen in New Jer...Would something like that really happen in New Jersey? It sounds so cynical and unJersey-like.<br /><br />Seriously though, how far does Corzine have to pull down those favorables on Christie to be on something of a level playing field? It is already tilted toward the Democratic Party, but not necessarily Corzine.<br /><br />I'll have to think about that some.Josh Putnamhttp://frontloading.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-1317223620600394022009-07-01T20:32:06.014-04:002009-07-01T20:32:06.014-04:00That's such an encouraging note, Jack. It'...That's such an encouraging note, Jack. It's sentiments like that to gives you faith in the American political system.Roberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03379192575044761972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-20141803493585554662009-07-01T19:10:16.544-04:002009-07-01T19:10:16.544-04:00As a resident of a state which borders New Jersey,...As a resident of a state which borders New Jersey, I can pretty safely say that it's all anti-Corzine, not pro-Christie.<br /><br />Let's keep in mind that Corzine has been involved in many negative campaigns and has won by keeping his opponents' unfavorables as high as his own, not by winning the love of New Jersey's voters — the Forrester race comes to mind. This can be a winning strategy — if New Jersey voters hate both candidates they'll mostly vote for the Democrat.Jackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04365194237710177589noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-75168104401601469622009-07-01T11:26:16.836-04:002009-07-01T11:26:16.836-04:00Good points, Rob. This basically falls back on th...Good points, Rob. This basically falls back on the old "define yourself or run the risk of having your opponent define you" principle.<br /><br />The DNC is doing their part. Corzine will eventually do his (but that will likely be in the fall).<br /><br />So, let's look at the PPP poll (the newest poll cited above): Do we have a question on how firm those respondents are on their vote choice? Ah, we do. They couch it in terms of how "committed" you are to your current choice. And in this poll there is 70/30 split between committed and uncommitted. <br /><br />In other words, there's some wiggle room for Corzine.<br /><br />The problem remains the favorability ratings. Corzine's continue to be abysmal for an incumbent (36% fav./56% unfav.) whereas Christie has a positive differential between the two (43/33, but with 25% unsure -- Corzine's unsure level was at 8%.). <br /><br />Again, there's some wiggle room, but not much. Corzine is still walking something of a tightrope in this race.Josh Putnamhttp://frontloading.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-83386051213784983252009-07-01T09:42:21.960-04:002009-07-01T09:42:21.960-04:00What would be interesting to see is how much of th...What would be interesting to see is how much of the Christie support is pro-Christie and how much of it is anti-Corzine. Pretty soon Christie will need to carve out some positions between conservative Republican and moderate Democrat. As his positions become more articulated can he continue to hold on to both the pro-Christie vote and the anti-Corzine vote? Corzine needs to put Christie into uncomfortable positions without adding to his own negativity. If Christie can come across as a second Tom Kean, Corzine has no hope. If Christie is only the flavor-of-the-month with little staying power, the margin will melt quickly.Roberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03379192575044761972noreply@blogger.com