tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post8044260966420311772..comments2024-03-26T05:22:08.256-04:00Comments on Frontloading HQ: The Electoral College Map (10/10/08)Josh Putnamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06301836432446874997noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-18986639713364895702008-10-11T12:15:00.000-04:002008-10-11T12:15:00.000-04:00Good catch, SD. I'll make that correction.Good catch, SD. I'll make that correction.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-89723892154019790312008-10-11T01:17:00.000-04:002008-10-11T01:17:00.000-04:00It's a nitpick, but your statement that "Neither [...It's a nitpick, but your statement that "Neither [Indiana nor North Carolina] has gone with a Democratic presidential candidate since Lyndon Johnson in 1964" is incorrect. Jimmy Carter carried North Carolina in 1976. That being said, this is the only counterexample to your statement.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16645401695696484967noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-7236500749995522432008-10-11T01:07:00.000-04:002008-10-11T01:07:00.000-04:00Great post, thanks for putting it up.This is most ...Great post, thanks for putting it up.<BR/><BR/>This is most certainly a tough race for McCain, Obama is at higher national polling numbers than at the height of his post convention bounce.<BR/><BR/>McCain needs a game changer or some form of exciting rally call which excites independents towards him.<BR/><BR/>What historic election result do you think this will be most like for Obama?Rationalisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16361274433657090420noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-56932465749437777422008-10-11T00:10:00.000-04:002008-10-11T00:10:00.000-04:00My opinion: McCain now needs a miracle to win this...My opinion: McCain now needs a miracle to win this election. The finding that Palin <A HREF="http://media.adn.com/smedia/2008/10/10/16/Branchflowerreport.source.prod_affiliate.7.pdf" REL="nofollow">broke the law</A>, along with McCain <A HREF="http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/10/john-mccain-hea.html" REL="nofollow">defending Obama's personal character</A> are the last nails in the coffin. Every reasonable avenue to victory is now closed. Take even the nightmare scenario for the country of a terrorist attack. Are people really going to feel safer with McCain now? His running mate says that Obama "pals around with terrorists," but McCain is getting beaten badly. So let's look at this overheated rhetoric as objectively as we can:<BR/><BR/>If Obama is not a terrorist sympathizer, then the attacks are reprehensible.<BR/><BR/>If Obama is a terrorist sympathizer (wow, that's hard to write), then McCain is unable to stop him, and is even appeasing him.<BR/><BR/>And Palin can't ride to the rescue anymore.<BR/><BR/>Voter apathy? Can McCain sneak in? No. Obama's supporters <I>like</I> their candidate, and dislike the McCain/Palin <I>tactics</I>. Apathy is much more likely to set in among voters who are against the other guy, but are either winning or losing by a wide margin. Here, I think there's a bandwagon effect: people feel an Obama wave, and would like to be able to say they voted for him. And the GOTV crowd would really like to run up the score and use all that machinery they've put in place. I can't see Obama voters suddenly getting overconfident and staying home en masse.<BR/><BR/>Oh, and one more thing--every day that goes by means more and more people have already voted. And we can guess who the majority of those people voted for.<BR/><BR/>Barring a miracle, it's over. Now it's a question of margin of victory, and of how McCain and Palin want to go out.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14690577323454357276noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-5184536662749848572008-10-10T11:39:00.000-04:002008-10-10T11:39:00.000-04:00Agreed that there's no need to drop ARG. It's not ...Agreed that there's no need to drop ARG. It's not like the Columbus Dispatch mail in poll or the Zogby Interactive Internet polls. Of course, if they release a poll showing Obama ahead in Utah ...<BR/><BR/>Yes, BYU did have a poll showing Obama ahead of a Republican in Utah, but that was Mike Huckabee.<BR/><BR/>I think, based on the polling out there, that Texas is probably about McCain +7-10 now. Rasmussen's +9 seems to be a pretty reasonable number.Jackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04365194237710177589noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-42843898146318632282008-10-10T11:20:00.000-04:002008-10-10T11:20:00.000-04:00I agree, Scott. As I said, the complicating facto...I agree, Scott. As I said, the complicating factor here is that there are so few polls in West Virginia. I don't "believe" that result, but I do think you are right on when you say "believable but surprising." That's about right for the ARG polls we've gotten so far. In most cases those polls get incorporated in the averages with minimal effect. And that's fine in the toss up states with lots of polling. In some of the peripheral toss ups, though, those polls may have a greater impact.<BR/><BR/>On Texas:<BR/>It would be nice if some firm other than ARG or Rasmussen would conduct a poll there. Other than the one poll from UT, ARG and Rasmussen have been the only providers of information in Texas since late June.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-31165812128231594172008-10-10T10:53:00.000-04:002008-10-10T10:53:00.000-04:00ARG seems to me be unreliable. It's not that they ...ARG seems to me be unreliable. It's not that they have a bias one way or the other; if that were the case, we could still compare their polls to their polls. But they produce outliers on a regular basis (I still remember them having Clinton winning the Oregon primary).<BR/><BR/>West Virginia looks like a blue outlier here, but we can't be sure because there haven't been other recent polls. <BR/><BR/>But Texas looks like a red outlier. Since Obama wrapped up the nomination in June, there have been 2 ARG polls of Texas, and 7 other polls. The ARG polls have been M +19 and M +21. The others have ranged from M +5 to M +10 (well, Zogby Interactive had M +3, but that's also silly).<BR/><BR/>If their methodology is bad enough to produce these kinds of outliers with regularity, it's probably bad enough to create results that are in the believable-but-surprising range. So I pay no attention to ARG.<BR/><BR/>I'm not suggesting FHQ should drop them; they seem to fit the screen for what gets included, and you want to have a defensible, consistent screen. But I'm not going to hang my hat on any of their particular results.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14690577323454357276noreply@blogger.com