tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post9088668558258244694..comments2024-03-26T05:22:08.256-04:00Comments on Frontloading HQ: The New Ohio Poll and McCain's VP ChoiceJosh Putnamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06301836432446874997noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-92022606000994091642008-08-19T14:44:00.000-04:002008-08-19T14:44:00.000-04:00Alright, it looks as if we have exhausted the Romn...Alright, it looks as if we have exhausted the Romney talk for the time being. Let's shift the VP prediction/timing discussion to a new post.<BR/><BR/>Give me a minute and I'll have that up.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-49703609735377990622008-08-19T14:12:00.000-04:002008-08-19T14:12:00.000-04:00Important news on Obama's VP choice:linkIf he's sh...Important news on Obama's VP choice:<BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://blogs.suntimes.com/sweet/2008/08/exclusive_obama_team_reserving.html" REL="nofollow">link</A><BR/><BR/>If he's showcasing his VP pick on Saturday, he has to announce him or her between now and then. So no matter what, now, the announcement will be during the Olympics.<BR/><BR/>My bet is for Friday. The news will get out, even to Olympics viewers (there will doubtless be a "breaking news" update), but any critical response will get buried. By announcing Friday, there won't be a perceptible "VP bounce," it will just get rolled in to the usual slow build through the convention period.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14690577323454357276noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-34817981842484993672008-08-18T21:48:00.000-04:002008-08-18T21:48:00.000-04:00According to the New York Times, Obama will annou...According to the <A HREF="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/19/us/politics/19veep.html" REL="nofollow"> New York <I>Times</I></A>, Obama will announce as early as Wednesday, and choose Biden, Bayh or Kaine. <A HREF="http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0808/12619.html" REL="nofollow"> McCain might announce August 29.</A>Jackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04365194237710177589noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-91150710988669290372008-08-18T20:22:00.000-04:002008-08-18T20:22:00.000-04:00There is no question in my mind that by far the be...There is no question in my mind that by far the best choice for McCain's chances is Romney. I think this is one of those rare cases where he really can turn a key state: Michigan. Michigan seems to me like the political equivalent of punch drunk right now. The Democratic process was so weird and stressful that many voters are probably a little discouraged right now. The economy there is bad, and it's hallmark industry (autos), will be strongly influenced by details of the candidates' energy programs. Enough voters might latch on to the familiarity of a Romney to give McCain the state.<BR/><BR/>And yes, he helps around the edges with the mountain west, but McCain seems to have waded so deeply into local politics that it may be hard for him to win both Nevada and Colorado.<BR/><BR/>But this misses a big advantage of picking Romney: he gives the ticket economic cred without making it look like an admission of weakness. It would look like Romney had been picked because of the states he could carry, and because he did well in the primaries.<BR/><BR/>If there was a Democrat who had won several states in the primaries, was associated with a key swing state, <I>and</I> was a prominent veteran (military service is to Obama as corporate experience is to McCain), wouldn't he or she be a prohibitive favorite?Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14690577323454357276noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-11801039527783680272008-08-18T19:20:00.000-04:002008-08-18T19:20:00.000-04:00The election is going to come down to 3 states, Oh...The election is going to come down to 3 states, Ohio,Nevada,Colorado.<BR/>Excluding those 3 states,McCain will win all Bush 2004 states except Iowa and New Mexico (both traditionally Democrat states).<BR/>Excluding Ohio,Nevada,Colorado, Obama will win all 2004 Kerry states plus Iowa and New Mexico.<BR/><BR/>The 3 closest state results in 2004 that are traditionally republican (Nevada,Colorado) and the 1 state I truly believe is a swing state (Ohio) are the states to watch on election day.<BR/>Plus, if Virginia's results come in BEFORE those 3 states and Obama takes Virginia then he wins, if McCain takes virginia then all eyes on Ohio,Nevada,Colorado.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-26852540066615750332008-08-18T17:16:00.000-04:002008-08-18T17:16:00.000-04:00Ooh, but what if both of them were named running m...Ooh, but what if both of them were named running mates? Now that would turn off some independents.<BR/><BR/>I thought Bayh's comments yesterday on Face the Nation regarding the Corsi book were humorous. <A HREF="http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2008/08/sunday_talk_shows_awarding_the.html" REL="nofollow">Old John McCain would have denounced them, but new John McCain embraces it</A>.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-33965050928517523992008-08-18T15:23:00.000-04:002008-08-18T15:23:00.000-04:00I am not saying that the Obama campaign would run ...I am not saying that the Obama campaign would run anti-Romney ads, but the 527s would if the Wright video shows back up this Fall. McCain has yet to condemn the Corsi book. This campaign is going to turn very nasty, and it will be even nastier if Romney or Clinton is named as a running mate.Roberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03379192575044761972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-70557429390272046692008-08-18T15:13:00.000-04:002008-08-18T15:13:00.000-04:00I can only think of two possibilities that could b...I can only think of two possibilities that could be at all helpful to McCain. Romney can help in Michigan, and a bit less in the West. A white woman such as Kay Bailey Hutchison might help pick off some of those disgruntled Clinton supporters and deflect attention from McCain's anti-choice positions (even if she is pro-life) and comments insensitive towards women.Jackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04365194237710177589noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-73925368194315095082008-08-18T15:04:00.000-04:002008-08-18T15:04:00.000-04:00I tend to fall in the "skeptical of VP effects" cr...I tend to fall in the "skeptical of VP effects" crowd as well. Recent history tells us that successful presidents in the electoral arena have chosen running mates from states already considered safe for their party. But in a close election a marginal difference in only a handful of states could make the difference. And Romney has the <I>potential</I> to make a difference in a greater number of these states between the Partisan and Victory lines than the other names mentioned on the GOP side of the veepstakes.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-20967618196555441012008-08-18T14:53:00.000-04:002008-08-18T14:53:00.000-04:00Romney's religion can be an issue, yes, but I can'...Romney's religion can be an issue, yes, but I can't see ads being put out about it; I think they'd backfire, especially if they are similar to some of the attacks against Obama for his ties to Rev. Wright. Charges of hypocricy would fly, and voters would be reminded of Wright.<BR/><BR/>As for the positive effects on the ticket, Romney could help in Michigan, partly because of his ties to the state but also because of his economic credentials in a state where that is very important.<BR/><BR/>Nevada has a high LDS population (11%) but I would think almost all of them vote Republican anyway; still, Romney could only help with those voters. Colorado (2% LDS) also went convincingly for Romney, but I'm not sure if that's because he has some sort of appeal to Westerners or because he spent more time campaigning there than the other Republicans. I don't think he'll have more than a marginal effect in the West (granted, as I've indicated before, I'm generally skeptical of the idea that running mates can significantly help candidates).Jackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04365194237710177589noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-8231457073679074352008-08-18T13:50:00.000-04:002008-08-18T13:50:00.000-04:00Selection of Romney as McCain's running mate would...Selection of Romney as McCain's running mate would be a late birthday and an early Christmas gift to Obama. Willard is a very poor campaigner -- no candidate since John Connally has spent so much money for so little effect. Also, his religion eliminates Jeremiah Wright as an issue to be used against Obama. MoveOn.org or some similar group will put together a video of statements by Mormon leaders over the last 10-20 years that will be just as damning as the Wright video, and pundits will ask how he could have remained a Mormon for all of his life in the light of all of these comments by church leaders.Roberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03379192575044761972noreply@blogger.com