tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post9198990881923281544..comments2024-03-26T05:22:08.256-04:00Comments on Frontloading HQ: The Electoral College Map (10/13/08)Josh Putnamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06301836432446874997noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-13396257627652356922008-10-13T21:15:00.000-04:002008-10-13T21:15:00.000-04:00Folks,I've sent the link to Dr. Bullock and invite...Folks,<BR/>I've sent the link to Dr. Bullock and invited him to comment here on the matter. I'm sure he'd add a lot of insight to what Cost was trying to say. And perhaps even set the record straight.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-89703951347880691362008-10-13T19:54:00.000-04:002008-10-13T19:54:00.000-04:00Don't overlook the "haven't voted in a while" crow...Don't overlook the "haven't voted in a while" crowd, too. Likely voter models will be very skeptical of them, but there's considerable anecdotal evidence that Obama is bringing some of them out. That's one place GOTV will make a big difference, by the way: the "passive" supporter who doesn't usually bother to vote. If they're directly asked on election day (and in states with early voting, election day lasts a month), they just might vote. Likely voter screens will never catch that.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14690577323454357276noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-31460074255028295022008-10-13T18:22:00.000-04:002008-10-13T18:22:00.000-04:00Good points, Jack. The key is how many of his youn...Good points, Jack. The key is how many of his young voters come out. They probably were the difference in the primaries, but the likely voter models tend to discount them.Roberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03379192575044761972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-63864310998293167212008-10-13T17:41:00.000-04:002008-10-13T17:41:00.000-04:00Doesn't a lot of GOTV have little to do with spend...Doesn't a lot of GOTV have little to do with spending? Isn't much of it the work of volunteers to call and otherwise contact supporters on election day, as well as doing voter registration beforehand? I know that some of that costs money directly and indirectly, but there is a lot of volunteer work involved.<BR/><BR/>And I wouldn't expect this to make a difference of more than a couple of points in the polls between likely voter models. You're not going to make up, say, 10 points by GOTV alone. Of course, a couple of points has decided many an election.Jackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04365194237710177589noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-89309731989383993982008-10-13T17:24:00.000-04:002008-10-13T17:24:00.000-04:00Here's that link from Rob.<A HREF="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/2008/10/on_gallups_two_likely_voter_mo.html" REL="nofollow">Here's that link from Rob</A>.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-41446282576088135022008-10-13T17:17:00.000-04:002008-10-13T17:17:00.000-04:00Jay Cost has an interesting take on the likely vot...Jay Cost has an interesting take on the likely voter problem.<BR/><BR/>http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/2008/10/on_gallups_two_likely_voter_mo.html<BR/><BR/>He appears to be skeptical of the Obama ground game. He also cites a Charles Bullock article.Roberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03379192575044761972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-80563075025069452542008-10-13T10:52:00.000-04:002008-10-13T10:52:00.000-04:00Steve Schmidt was on NPR this morning and seemed r...Steve Schmidt was on NPR this morning and seemed reasonably confident taht McCain could close the gap. When asked what states they were targeting, they were all 2004 red states -- NC, FL, OH & VA. Strange strategy.Roberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03379192575044761972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-72959288332864726032008-10-13T08:38:00.000-04:002008-10-13T08:38:00.000-04:00McCain followers seem to think their path to a mir...McCain followers seem to think their path to a miracle-win goes through Pennsylvania. I'm not sure why that is, but among the supporters it seems like a more common refrain than the "hold the line" win of sweeping the toss-ups.<BR/><BR/>For another way of looking at the trouble McCain's in, look at this <A HREF="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/mccain_favorableunfavorable-642.html" REL="nofollow">rcp graph of McCain's unfavorable rating over time</A>. While there was a little blip down in unfavorability around the time of the Palin pick, the basic shape is an arc upward since early August. At first that was coming at the expense of people in the neutral category, but recently it's stealing from his favorable category (or favorables are becoming neutrals while neutrals become unfavorables). McCain's favorables have now broken below 50, and are headed down further.<BR/><BR/>In an election without a strong third candidate, I don't think McCain can win with favorables under 50; it suggests undecideds aren't going to break for him. Yes, he can probably reverse this trend by deciding to be noble in defeat. That kind of magnanimity does wonders for personal reputation (see Gore, Dole, Bush 41...) but of course means being defeated.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14690577323454357276noreply@blogger.com