tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post950091374160107914..comments2024-03-26T05:22:08.256-04:00Comments on Frontloading HQ: Open Thread: An Obama Landslide: How Far Could It Go?Josh Putnamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06301836432446874997noreply@blogger.comBlogger20125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-6331042163273597272008-10-27T19:38:00.000-04:002008-10-27T19:38:00.000-04:00In view of the utter meltdown of the McCain/Palin ...In view of the utter meltdown of the McCain/Palin candidacy only a couple weeks before the election:<BR/><BR/>I think that Colorado and Virginia are in the out-of-reach category for McCain. Nevada is close to that spot. Then Florida, Ohio, Missouri, Indiana, and North Carolina in no particular order. <BR/><BR/>Obama could flip Georgia, and perhaps Montana and North Dakota. There might be some tiny surprises in Nebraska (two Congressional districts). But the time is running out to do anything more. Arkansas, West Virginia, and Texas will take just too much time now running out.<BR/><BR/>It's just as well that time is running out. Most Americans are sick of George Worthless Bush, and most would be satisfied with Obama winning with 272 or so votes. I'd like to see Obama victories in the South so that the "Red/Blue" divide weakens, but what the heck? If Obama should govern well, then he stands to win a lot of people over in some "Red" states like Texas, Arizona, Tennessee, etc.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-68609408305254576992008-10-10T21:20:00.000-04:002008-10-10T21:20:00.000-04:00Arkansas would have been closer with Clinton as th...Arkansas would have been closer with Clinton as the nominee and perhaps Tennessee. But that would really have been the extent of her stretch into ruby red states in a landslide. I think she potentially could have made Kentucky and West Virginia interesting too. President Clinton won those four but that's no guarantee Hillary would have.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-17756515649300898322008-10-10T16:41:00.000-04:002008-10-10T16:41:00.000-04:00Good point, because while there is no guarantee a...Good point, because while <A HREF="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1888" REL="nofollow"> there is no guarantee a candidate will win his home state,</A> in a landslide it probably is, and we've seen Southern Democrats do well in the south (Carter, Clinton).<BR/><BR/>This might not have mattered in a Hillary landslide, though; she probably forfeited the whole southern Democrat thing to a degree by representing New York in the senate.Jackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04365194237710177589noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-75560620187653298692008-10-10T15:56:00.000-04:002008-10-10T15:56:00.000-04:00This is contrary to the notion of generic you prop...This is contrary to the notion of generic you proposed, Jack, but where would this generic, white Democrat be from? If he/she is from the South, then yeah, I think those are reasonable target states. I just think there may be some regional considerations there.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-24792665138880029272008-10-10T14:22:00.000-04:002008-10-10T14:22:00.000-04:00Not to revive a topic that's already been discusse...Not to revive a topic that's already been discussed quite a bit, but would a generic (<I>i.e.,</I> white) Democrat have a shot at a few more states in a landslide? I'm thinking Arkansas, Louisiana, Kentucky and Tennessee here.Jackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04365194237710177589noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-25596203711650521932008-10-10T06:15:00.000-04:002008-10-10T06:15:00.000-04:00Here's that link from Anthony.<A HREF="http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=8934" REL="nofollow">Here's</A> that link from Anthony.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-89339546637032825362008-10-10T01:49:00.000-04:002008-10-10T01:49:00.000-04:00openleft had a discussion on this:http://www.openl...openleft had a discussion on this:<BR/><BR/>http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=8934<BR/><BR/>At openleft, there was a suggestion that the limit could around 8.5%.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05398040546190080139noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-47227261552132417202008-10-09T23:34:00.000-04:002008-10-09T23:34:00.000-04:00Jack--no, the Delaware ultra-safe status is based ...Jack--no, the Delaware ultra-safe status is based on Biden. Without him it could go to McCain in the hypothetical McCain landslide.<BR/><BR/>The Vermont-Massachussets thing is certainly not based on overall Democratic lean. But Massachussets has polled closer than Vermont, Obama dominated Vermont in the primaries, and it just "feels" like his kind of state.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14690577323454357276noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-57183805287963858892008-10-09T21:20:00.000-04:002008-10-09T21:20:00.000-04:00Scott, if Biden were not on the ticket, would you ...Scott, if Biden were not on the ticket, would you give Obama Delaware ahead of Massachusetts? It's generally less Democratic than MA - as a state it has a PVI of D+7 as opposed to MA's +15.<BR/><BR/>He could also lose D+8 Vermont.Jackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04365194237710177589noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-49177177339656000492008-10-09T17:49:00.000-04:002008-10-09T17:49:00.000-04:00If it's a landslide, I'd put West Virginia...If it's a landslide, I'd put West Virginia first on the list. It's surrounded by states Obama's making a big push for; and that's got to help. If he sends one of the Clinton's there for a day, he could have a real shot in a moderate landslide.<BR/><BR/>My dark horse state: Texas. It keeps flirting with being kind of close in the polls. It's big enough and complicated enough that turnout can do funny things. Heck, you can even get one of those situations where the weather is nasty on Nov. 4 in Republican strongholds and pushes down turnout.<BR/><BR/>Montana? Maybe, but I think Palin's done a whole lot for the McCain ticket there. Ditto the Dakotas, but more so.<BR/><BR/>Arkansas is also possible, but I'm skeptical.<BR/><BR/>Louisiana, Georgia, or Mississippi? In a blowout one of those might flip, but I'm not sure which one. South Carolina seems less likely.<BR/><BR/>Arizona also seems to have rallied behind McCain.<BR/><BR/>So I'd go with WV > TX > LA = GA = MS > MT > AR.<BR/><BR/>Quirky, but we're talking about what would happen here in an extreme case.<BR/><BR/>And Jack, in a McCain blowout, I'd still give Obama New York and Delaware, but I'd take away Massachussets.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14690577323454357276noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-52017124302528786972008-10-09T17:31:00.000-04:002008-10-09T17:31:00.000-04:00On your current map, all I would change is Virgini...On your current map, all I would change is Virginia from Obama to McCain and Florida from McCain to Obama.<BR/>It looks bad for McCain.<BR/>Virginia may go to Obama on election day, but the other states that are close right now such as North Carolina and Missouri will not go for Obama.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-26773214592764153412008-10-09T15:13:00.000-04:002008-10-09T15:13:00.000-04:00West Virginia's Board of Elections has a very nice...West Virginia's Board of Elections has a very nice website with these statistics going back to 1976 for general elections and 1996 for primaries. I wish my state's site was this good! On another part of the site, they have turnout from 1966, and election results back to 1998. Those are all easy to find; I'll just send the link to the voter registration statistics below.<BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://www.wvsos.com/elections/history/registration/registrationstats.htm" REL="nofollow">WV voter registration statistics since 1976</A>Jackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04365194237710177589noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-67327999658455059242008-10-09T15:06:00.000-04:002008-10-09T15:06:00.000-04:00Excellent work, Jack. I'll put those links in wit...Excellent work, Jack. I'll put those links in with my discussion of the poll in tonight's/tomorrow's map post. <BR/><BR/>Do they have the 2002 and 2004 numbers up as well? I'd like to see those for comparison's sake. <BR/><BR/>And let me add, I stand corrected.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-42604131061367118312008-10-09T14:49:00.000-04:002008-10-09T14:49:00.000-04:00Actually, not really. Voter registration as of 200...Actually, not really.<BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://www.wvsos.com/elections/history/registration/2006-voter%20registration_general.pdf" REL="nofollow"> Voter registration as of 2006 general election</A><BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://www.wvsos.com/elections/history/registration/2008PrimaryOfficialVR.pdf" REL="nofollow"> Voter registration as of the 2008 primary elections</A><BR/><BR/>So the proportions in the ARG poll were pretty favorable to Republicans.Jackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04365194237710177589noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-32518577084594793352008-10-09T14:41:00.000-04:002008-10-09T14:41:00.000-04:00Yeah, that 55/35 split in party ID is definitely s...Yeah, that 55/35 split in party ID is definitely something to look at here. The state <I>does</I> have a lot of Democrats, but 55% seems a bit steep.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-119102738899466242008-10-09T14:29:00.000-04:002008-10-09T14:29:00.000-04:00One more thing, and I'm sorry about the triple pos...One more thing, and I'm sorry about the triple post, but doesn't ARG have a disproportionate number of Democrats there? I believe WV has a high number of registered Dems, but 55%?Jackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04365194237710177589noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-49701061113209579852008-10-09T14:27:00.000-04:002008-10-09T14:27:00.000-04:00Also, thanks for that link to AA populations.. I'v...Also, thanks for that link to AA populations.. I've been looking for something like that sporadically for a while.Jackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04365194237710177589noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-87250109212636154912008-10-09T14:26:00.000-04:002008-10-09T14:26:00.000-04:00You have got to be f****** kidding me.I think ARG'...You have got to be f****** kidding me.<BR/><BR/>I think ARG's April Fools Day poll got delayed by eight months.<BR/><BR/>I know that Nate ranks ARG pretty low, and that this is probably an outlier, but still.<BR/><BR/>This poll just made my day. It's shocking.<BR/><BR/>Incidentally, I was initially listing WV as the most likely state to flip, but then I changed my mind. Perhaps I should have stuck to my guns. And religion.Jackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04365194237710177589noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-16165546965555100142008-10-09T14:18:00.000-04:002008-10-09T14:18:00.000-04:00I may change my mind about West Virginia in light ...I may change my mind about West Virginia in light of <A HREF="http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2008/WV08.html" REL="nofollow">new information</A> there.<BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://www.census.gov/prod/2001pubs/c2kbr01-5.pdf" REL="nofollow">Here's</A> the breakdown of the percentage of African Americans by state. As of 2000, Mississippi held that distinction overall. But Maryland is the highest blue state.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-86111739191367304732008-10-09T14:05:00.000-04:002008-10-09T14:05:00.000-04:00I think we're at the point where all the lean stat...I think we're at the point where all the lean states are very unlikely states for Obama.<BR/><BR/>Perhaps the most likely are Montana/North Dakota, which did give Obama some good early polling numbers, but have shifted far away from Obama since. Montana is more likely to swing than SC.<BR/><BR/>Next are the southern states of Georgia, Mississippi, and South Carolina. I just don't see there being enough swing voters for these to go blue, but maybe I'm wrong.<BR/><BR/>Unlike you, I wouldn't rule out WV. The economy has gotten to the point where <A HREF="http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1008/Race_and_the_economy.html?showall" REL="nofollow"> even racists are considering voting for Obama</A>. And WV has gone Democratic in the 1990s. It's been within single digits in sporadic polling.<BR/><BR/>Next is South Dakota and Arkansas, places that Democrats can win under the right circumstances. Louisiana will be tough - I know a lot of blacks have left but that doesn't seem to be hurting Mary Landrieu.<BR/><BR/>After that is Arizona, and by now we're getting pretty far away from reality. Perhaps Obama, given his strength in the Mountain West, would have a good shot at that reddish state if McCain were not his opponent.<BR/><BR/>Maybe we can play devil's advocate and discuss what would happen in a McCain landslide. Republican landslides in this political map are probably uglier than Democratic ones. In an extreme case, Obama might wind up with the 57 EVs of HI & IL (his home states), MD (largest black population of any blue state, I'm pretty sure), DC, MA, RI and VT, though it could possibly get even worse, if, say, I'm completely wrong and Obama is a terrorist sympathizer and appears at a fundraiser with Osama. In that case, he'd probably still win DC but that's about it.Jackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04365194237710177589noreply@blogger.com