Showing posts with label Arkansas. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Arkansas. Show all posts

Tuesday, October 20, 2020

The Electoral College Map (10/20/20)

Update for October 20.


Changes (October 20)
StateBeforeAfter
Georgia
Toss Up Biden
Toss Up Trump
After a slow weekend of polling releases and a similar start to Monday, Tom Bevan at Real Clear Politics asked where the polls were on Twitter a day ago. As FHQ said over the weekend, it was the calm before the storm, and the showers began in earnest on Tuesday with 16 new polls in 13 states. States representing five of the six FHQ categories were represented, and as a result there was a pretty good cross-section of the race. [Only the Lean Trump category was not represented in this wave of new polling.] That particular cross-section continues to point toward a Democratic swing from election day 2016 to the polling picture in 2020. Right now, that shift stands at 6.84 points in the Democrats' direction.

And in the one state that made another change, the shift from 2016 to now is below average but not by much. Less than a week since it jumped the partisan line into Toss Up Biden territory, new polling has pushed Georgia back to the Trump side. But the marginal Biden lead before is an even more tenuous Trump advantage now. After the addition of the new surveys, the Peach state went from Biden +0.03 to Trump +0.007. 

It is tied in Georgia with two weeks to go, and that represents a nearly five point shift from election day four years ago. 

On to the polls... 


Polling Quick Hits:
Alabama
(Trump 55, Biden 38)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +19.96]
In the Yellowhammer state, Moore Information weighed in for the first time and found much what other surveys have collectively discovered throughout 2020: Trump maintains a sizable advantage, but one that is off the mark compared to his performance there in 2016. But the president coming in under his prior showing is only part of the equation. Biden, for his part, is ahead of Clinton's pace by nearly four points. And while this new poll matches the Biden number in the FHQ averages, Trump's share of support in the poll lags his own average level of support by more than three points. 


Arkansas
(Trump 58, Biden 34)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +24.62]
What a difference a few months makes. The weekend before FHQ went live with its first daily electoral college projection of the cycle, Hendrix College released a survey that not only had Trump with less than 50 percent in the Natural state, but ahead by just two points. What was an outlier then continues to look like an outlier now. And that is more true at this point given an update from Hendrix that shows Trump expanding that June edge by 12 times. Contrary to the earlier Hendrix poll this one and the other surveys from other pollsters that have been in the field there have had the president in a mid-50s to mid-60s range while Biden has more often been in the 30s. Compared to Alabama, however, the swing in Arkansas has been minimal. Trump is just half point behind where he was in 2016 and the former vice president is a shade under two points above Clinton's performance there.


Arizona
(Biden 47, Trump 42)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.07]
Data Orbital conducted a survey in the Grand Canyon state during the first week in October and had Biden out in front by five points. The margin is the same now as both candidates have tacked on an additional point of support in that time. That brings Biden's share in the series closer to his average share of support in the FHQ averages, but the firm continues to be less optimistic about Trump's support than some other pollsters. Arizona is close, but it is polls like these that keep the vice president steadily ahead there.


Colorado
(Biden 51, Trump 43)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +12.69]
This RMG Research survey -- its first in the state in calendar 2020 -- is now the third poll released out of Colorado over the last two days, and although it finds Biden in good shape, it has the race the closest of the set. Most of that difference is on the Trump side. The president is at his peak level in Centennial state polling here while Biden splits the difference between where he was in yesterday's pair of polls. Being below 50 percent in the YouGov poll was unusual in view of the other polls of the state this year, but even a 51 percent share here is on the lower end of the former vice president's range in recent Colorado surveys. 


Florida
(Biden 48, Trump 47)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.28]
The Sunshine state has been in the Biden +3 area for a while now at FHQ, but polls like the new University of North Florida may provide some evidence that that is changing. In early October the university pollster had the Democratic nominee ahead by six with more than 50 percent of the respondents backing him. What is of note here, however, is that within the UNF series, this poll closely mirrors the poll conducted in Florida in February. FHQ spent some time during the late summer talking about regression to, if not the mean, then the pre-Biden surge period before June and July. This may just be some evidence of such a regression or it could more simply be a manifestation of partisan coming home as election day nears. Regardless, Florida, like Arizona, is close but consistently tipped in the former vice president's direction.  


Georgia
(Trump 48, Biden 47 via Emerson | Trump 45, Biden 45 via Siena/NYT Upshot)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +0.007]
Again, Georgia may have flipped back to Toss Up Trump based on the addition of these two polls, but FHQ will say what we said when the Peach state hopped the partisan line onto Biden turf last week: as long as Georgia remains this close, it does not matter which side of the partisan line it is. The story is that Georgia is close at all. Well, as was mentioned above, it was close before and is even closer now even with the change. This is the first time Emerson has been in the field in the Peach state in calendar 2020, but the update from Siena showed no change over its September survey. And together neither did much to dislodge the state from its perch as the most competitive state on the board. 


Kentucky
(Trump 56, Biden 39)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +18.54]
Kentucky is the third of the Strong Trump states with new surveys out today, and the Mason-Dixon results closely resemble the 57-38 lead Trump currently holds in the FHQ averages. It is not close in the Bluegrass state either in the averages here or in this first time survey of Kentucky. However, it lends even more credence to the dynamic cited above. Even in reliably red states Trump is well off his 2016 mark. And this is more acute in Kentucky than it was in Alabama and (especially) Arkansas. The swing in the Bluegrass state is approaching twice the size of the overall average shift across the country. Trump is more than six points behind his showing there four years ago, and Biden is more than five points ahead of where Clinton was in November 2016.


Minnesota
(Biden 49, Trump 44)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +8.30]
The Change Research poll of Minnesota likely voters is another of the first timers in today's batch of polls. And while there is no natural comparison, one can say that this is the closest any poll of the Land of 10,000 Lakes has found the race there since early September in the immediate aftermath of convention season. But since that point -- in all of the September and October polling -- Biden has been at or over 50 percent in eight of 15 polls. This one finds the Democratic nominee below the majority level, but at a point that is well within his range in the state. Trump, on the other hand is back at his peak of support in post-convention polling in this survey. Minnesota may or may not be narrowing, but it will take more polls like this to do, but to do so in the remaining 14 days. That is a steep climb in a state that has been reliably in the Biden column.


North Carolina
(Biden 50, Trump 48 via ABC/WaPo | Biden 51, Trump 47 via East Carolina University)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +1.79]
In North Carolina, the thing that grabs the eye in two similar looking surveys is that Biden is at or above 50 percent in both of them. That is happening more frequently in recent Tar Heel state polling. October has seen the state surveyed 17 times and of that group, eight have had Biden above the majority mark. If one drops that just a point to 49 percent, Biden has been at or over that mark in 12 of 17 polls. And although the race is close in North Carolina, it must be troubling to the Trump campaign that the state has regularly been tilted in the former vice president's direction and furthermore that he is closing in on 50 percent there. Yes, Biden's average share at FHQ rounds up to just 48 now, but that is trending upward Yet, so has Trump's, just at a lesser clip as undecideds come off the board.


Ohio
(Biden 48, Trump 47)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +0.53]
It may get old saying this about the states that have continued to hover around the partisan line this fall, but Ohio is also close. And the new Pulse Opinion Research results in a survey of the Buckeye state demonstrate that nicely. Furthermore, the race has tightened through the lens of the Pulse series of polls. Biden held four point leads in polls in both July and September and that advantage has now dissipated. But this survey brings Pulse in line with other recent surveys in the state. In fact, it exactly matches the Quinnipiac poll of the state from last week among the major party candidates. 


Pennsylvania
(Biden 49, Trump 45 via Ipsos | Biden 50, Trump 47 via Pulse Opinion Research)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +5.38]
The two new additions to Pennsylvania polling today are similar in a few ways. First, both find Biden's advantage over the president in the commonwealth below his graduated weighted average margin there. However, both also have the former vice president hovering right around his average share of support in the Keystone state, meaning that it is the Trump data that is different. Indeed, the president is above his 44 percent (rounded) share of support at FHQ in both surveys, but certainly within his range in recent polling.  Looking at each poll on its own, the Ipsos survey continues a series where Biden continues to oscillate in the 49-51 percent range while Trump has most often been stuck at 45 percent. In other words, there is not much change here. But that is not the case with the Pulse survey. In the last poll from the firm, the two major party candidates were tied in August. But rather than attribute that to some Biden surge in the time since, it is more likely that the August survey was an outlier. This latest poll more closely resembles the July Pulse poll when Biden led 51-46.

 
Texas
(Biden 47, Trump 46)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +1.62]
Texas continues to look like the North Carolina of the Trump coalition of states. And the latest Data for Progress survey of the Lone Star state dose nothing to really change that. As in the Tar Heel state, the underdog occasionally leads and that is true of this DfP poll. Yet, this survey represents a narrowing of the race for the 38 electoral votes in Texas. The early October poll from DfP had Biden up two. While Biden held his ground at 47 percent, Trump rose a point to 46 percent. Alternatively, this is just plain old survey variability. Regardless, Texas continues to favor Trump.


Wisconsin
(Biden 51, Trump 45)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +6.20]
The other Ipsos survey on the day -- a leftover from late Monday -- comes from Wisconsin. But like the Pennsylvania survey from Ipsos, this update to a poll from last week does not show any real change over that time. Biden lost a point, but continues to consistently be around 50 percent in the series while Trump trails often in the mid-40s. That just does not stray that much from the 50-43 advantage Biden has in the FHQ averages. 


The Electoral College Spectrum1
DC-3
VT-3
(6)2
IL-20
(162)
WI-10
(253)
AK-3
(125)
TN-11
(60)
MA-11
(17)
OR-7
(169)
PA-203
(273 | 285)
MO-10
(122)
KY-8
(49)
MD-10
(27)
NJ-14
(183)
NV-6
(279 | 265)
SC -9
(112)
AL-9
(41)
HI-4
(31)
ME-2
(185)
FL-29
(308 | 259)
KS-6
(103)
SD-3
(32)
CA-55
(86)
CO-9
(194)
AZ-11
(319 | 230)
NE CD1-1
MT-3
(97)
ID-4
(29)
NYI-29
(115)
VA-13
(207)
NC-15
ME CD2-1
(335 | 219)
NE-2
(93)
AR-6
(25)
DE-3
(118)
NH-4
(211)
GA-16
(203)
IN-11
(91)
OK-7
(19)
WA-12
(130)
NM-5
(216)
OH-18
(187)
UT-6
(80)
ND-3
(12)
ME CD1-1
CT-7
(138)
MN-10
(226)
IA-6
(169)
MS-6
(74)
WV-5
(9)
RI-4
(142)
NE CD2-1
MI-16
(243)
TX-38
(163)
LA-8
(68)
WY-3
NE CD3-1
(4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 285 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trump's is on the right in bold italics.

3 Pennsylvania
 is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. The tipping point cell is shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is.

Tuesday was another day where there may have been the beginnings of some evidence that Trump is closing the gap in the waning days of the 2020 presidential campaign. And while there may be some truth to that it was often subtle and often masked by a continued steadiness in polls that represent an update to a series of previous polls. From pollster to pollster, there may be some changes, but within-pollster effects are minimal at best. This ends up being another day, then, in which the president did not make up any real ground on the Democratic nominee. And that is even with Georgia coming back over the partisan line into his column. 

It is that Georgia move that provides the only changes for the day. The Peach state turned pink on the map and Spectrum and flipped its possible switch on the Watch List below. But again, that is to be expected. As close as Georgia is, it has the greatest potential to change hands of any state on the board. 

But with two weeks to go, Trump still has that more than five point gap to make up in order to reclaim North Carolina, Arizona, Florida and Pennsylvania to get to 270 electoral votes. And if that follows the order on the Spectrum above, then Trump would likely flip Nevada in the process as well. But at this last date, that is a tall task. Not impossible, but tough.


Where things stood at FHQ on October 20 (or close to it) in...
2016
2012
2008


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NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State
Potential Switch
Georgia
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Biden
New Hampshire
from Strong Biden
to Lean Biden
New Mexico
from Strong Biden
to Lean Biden
Ohio
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Biden
Pennsylvania
from Lean Biden
to Toss Up Biden
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

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Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


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Related posts:




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Tuesday, February 25, 2020

2020 Democratic Delegate Allocation: ARKANSAS

ARKANSAS

Election type: primary
Date: March 3
Number of delegates: 36 [7 at-large, 4 PLEOs, 20 congressional district, 5 automatic/superdelegates]
Allocation method: proportional statewide and at the congressional district level
Threshold to qualify for delegates: 15%
2016: proportional primary
Delegate selection plan


--
Changes since 2016
If one followed the 2016 series on the Republican process here at FHQ, then you may end up somewhat disappointed. The two national parties manage the presidential nomination process differently. The Republican National Committee is much less hands-on in regulating state and state party activity in the delegate selection process than the Democratic National Committee is. That leads to a lot of variation from state to state and from cycle to cycle on the Republican side. Meanwhile, the DNC is much more top down in its approach. Thresholds stay the same. It is a 15 percent barrier that candidates must cross in order to qualify for delegates. That is standard across all states. The allocation of delegates is roughly proportional. Again, that is applied to every state.

That does not mean there are no changes. The calendar has changed as have other facets of the process such as whether a state has a primary or a caucus.

While Arkansas retained its Super Tuesday position on the 2020 primary calendar, the Natural state took a circuitous route getting [back] there. Following the 2016 cycle, the law passed in 2015 to shift the Arkansas presidential primary from May to March expired. That reverted the primary to the late May date on which it has been scheduled throughout much of the post-reform era. But in 2019, the Arkansas legislature once again moved to reposition the Arkansas presidential primary for the 2020 cycle and beyond. The difference was that the legislation was passed and signed into law with no sunset clause, and the primary is scheduled for the first Tuesday after the first Monday in March until the state legislature acts to change that.

One additional difference over 2016 is also that Arkansas lost one district delegate as the other categories' totals remained constant. But outside of that, much remains the same in 2020 as it was in 2016 in the Natural state.


Thresholds
The standard 15 percent qualifying threshold applies both statewide and on the congressional district level.


Delegate allocation (at-large and PLEO delegates)
To win any at-large or PLEO (pledged Party Leader and Elected Officials) delegates a candidate must win 15 percent of the statewide vote. Only the votes of those candidates above the threshold will count for the purposes of the separate allocation of these two pools of delegates.

See New Hampshire synopsis for an example of how the delegate allocation math works for all categories of delegates.


Delegate allocation (congressional district delegates)
Arkansas's 20 congressional district delegates are split across four congressional districts and have some muted variation across districts from the measure of Democratic strength Arkansas Democrats are using based on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections in the state. That method apportions delegates as follows...
CD1 - 4 delegates [Jonesboro]
CD2 - 6 delegates [Little Rock]
CD3 - 5 delegates* [Hot Springs]
CD4 - 5 delegates* [Fayetteville]

*Bear in mind that districts with odd numbers of national convention delegates are potentially important to winners (and those above the qualifying threshold) within those districts. Rounding up for an extra delegate initially requires less in those districts than in districts with even numbers of delegates.


Delegate allocation (automatic delegates/superdelegates)
Superdelegates are free to align with a candidate of their choice at a time of their choosing. While their support may be a signal to voters in their state (if an endorsement is made before voting in that state), superdelegates will only vote on the first ballot at the national convention if half of the total number of delegates -- pledged plus superdelegates -- have been pledged to one candidate. Otherwise, superdelegates are locked out of the voting unless 1) the convention adopts rules that allow them to vote or 2) the voting process extends to a second ballot. But then all delegates, not just superdelegates will be free to vote for any candidate.

[NOTE: All Democratic delegates are pledged and not bound to their candidates. They are to vote in good conscience for the candidate to whom they have been pledged, but technically do not have to. But they tend to because the candidates and their campaigns are involved in vetting and selecting their delegates through the various selection processes on the state level. Well, the good campaigns are anyway.]


Selection
All 31 pledged delegates in Arkansas will be selected at the state convention on May 30. District delegates will be chosen in district caucuses at the convention based on district results to the March primary while the full body will select both PLEO and then at-large delegates based on the statewide results.

Importantly, if a candidate drops out of the race before the selection of statewide delegates, then any statewide delegates allocated to that candidate will be reallocated to the remaining candidates. If Candidate X is in the race in late May when the Arkansas statewide delegate selection takes place but Candidate Y is not, then any statewide delegates allocated to Candidate Y in the March primary would be reallocated to Candidate X. [This same feature is not something that applies to district delegates.] This reallocation only applies if a candidate has fully dropped out. Candidates with suspended campaigns are still candidates and can fill those slots allocated them.

Monday, March 25, 2019

Arkansas Presidential Primary to Super Tuesday

Governor Asa Hutchinson (R) quietly signed SB 445 into law last Thursday, March 21.

Arkansas law now calls for a consolidated primary election -- including the presidential primary -- on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in March in presidential election years. More importantly, this shifts Arkansas once again into a position on Super Tuesday. At this time, that now aligns the Arkansas primary with contests in at least eleven other states (or other political units). Of the twelve contests in total on Super Tuesday, Arkansas would have the tenth most delegates at stake on the Democratic side. However, the Natural state may also benefit from having a number of regional partners from North Carolina to Texas on the first multi-contest date on the 2020 calendar.

Unlike the May to March shift the presidential primary in the Natural state made four years ago, this move is permanent. It does not sunset as the 2015 change did at the end of 2016.

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The Arkansas presidential primary change will be reflected on the 2020 FHQ presidential primary calendar.

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Related:
2/6/19: Out of Arkansas, An Apparent Challenge to the New Hampshire Primary

2/11/19: Arkansas Lawmaker Signals a Scaling Back of Presidential Primary Legislation

2/16/19: Amendment to Arkansas Bill Eyes March for Presidential Primary Move

3/1/19: New March Presidential Primary Bill Flies Through Arkansas Senate Committee

3/9/19: Arkansas Senate Makes Quick Work of March Presidential Primary Bill

3/13/19: Arkansas House Committee Advances March Presidential Primary Bill

3/19/19: On to the Governor: Super Tuesday Bill Passes Arkansas House


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Tip of the cap to Richard Winger at Ballot Access News for the heads up on the news of the move.


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Tuesday, March 19, 2019

On to the Governor: Super Tuesday Bill Passes Arkansas House

The Arkansas state House on Tuesday, March 19 took up SB 445, the bill to shift presidential year primaries from mid-May up to the first Tuesday after the first Monday in March.

Although there has been some resistance to this bill from county clerks in the Natural state and from some lawmakers for a variety of reasons across both legislative chambers, the Senate-passed presidential primary bill has enjoyed widespread support. That trend continued in a 74-8 vote to pass SB 445. Ten Democrats joined the majority of Republicans in the lower chamber in favor while only three Republicans cast nay votes against.

The measure will now be enrolled and sent to Governor Hutchinson (R) for his consideration. As the bill's Senate sponsor mentioned while the legislation was being considered there, the governor backs the bill. Arkansas now joins Utah as a Super Tuesday state in waiting. Legislation is before the governor in both states to move the primaries in line with other states on March 3, 2020.


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Hat tip to Richard Winger of Ballot Access News for passing along the news of the bill's passage to FHQ.

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Related:
2/6/19: Out of Arkansas, An Apparent Challenge to the New Hampshire Primary

2/11/19: Arkansas Lawmaker Signals a Scaling Back of Presidential Primary Legislation

2/16/19: Amendment to Arkansas Bill Eyes March for Presidential Primary Move

3/1/19: New March Presidential Primary Bill Flies Through Arkansas Senate Committee

3/9/19: Arkansas Senate Makes Quick Work of March Presidential Primary Bill

3/13/19: Arkansas House Committee Advances March Presidential Primary Bill

3/25/19: Arkansas Presidential Primary to Super Tuesday


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Wednesday, March 13, 2019

Arkansas House Committee Advances March Presidential Primary Bill

After a hearing on SB 445 that saw opposition to the measure moving the presidential year primary from May to March, the Arkansas House Committee on State Agencies and Governmental Affairs passed the legislation on a voice vote.

While the committee passed the bill on to the House floor with a do pass recommendation, there was some resistance. As with the recent floor vote passing the bill on the Senate side, opposition to the two month move came from the from the membership itself. Representative Bruce Cozart (R-24th, Hot Springs) raised the issue that farmer/legislators might face with a later (April) fiscal session pushed back by a conflicting March primary election. The Libertarian Party of Arkansas took issue with the impact of an earlier filing deadline for independent candidates. And those representing both Arkansas county clerks and school boards brought up concerns with respect to the unevenness of the elections calendar from March in presidential years to May in gubernatorial years.

Despite that opposition, the committee passed the bill behind arguments that this legislation would 1) provide Arkansas voters with a voice in the presidential nomination process and 2) actually resolve the uncertainty around primary dates. On the latter point, SB 445 would make permanent the shift of the consolidated primary election in Arkansas rather than making the move, as the legislature did in 2015, but sunsetting the change after 2016. Future legislatures could still change the dates of the primaries, of course, but they would not be forced to look again at moving the date up if it was already in March.

There are not many other states that have uneven consolidated elections calendars like this, but Alabama is one, shifting primaries from March in presidential years to June in midterm years.

SB 445 now moves to the full House for consideration. It has already passed the Senate.


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Related:
2/6/19: Out of Arkansas, An Apparent Challenge to the New Hampshire Primary

2/11/19: Arkansas Lawmaker Signals a Scaling Back of Presidential Primary Legislation

2/16/19: Amendment to Arkansas Bill Eyes March for Presidential Primary Move

3/1/19: New March Presidential Primary Bill Flies Through Arkansas Senate Committee

3/9/19: Arkansas Senate Makes Quick Work of March Presidential Primary Bill

3/19/19: On to the Governor: Super Tuesday Bill Passes Arkansas House

3/25/19: Arkansas Presidential Primary to Super Tuesday


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Saturday, March 9, 2019

Arkansas Senate Makes Quick Work of March Presidential Primary Bill

On Thursday, March 7, the Arkansas state Senate moved with little vocal dissent to pass SB 445. The measure would shift up from late May to the first Tuesday in March the consolidated primary, including the presidential primary, in the Natural state.

In an 18-7 vote with another ten members either voting present, not voting or excused the bill passed and was sent to the state House for its consideration. Only Republicans supported the bill while the Democratic caucus was split between opposing the measure and voting present. Two Republicans voted no and explained why as the bill was considered on the Senate floor. One member, Sen. James Sturch (R-19th, Batesville), stood against the legislation due to the unresolved complaints from county elections officials (a dispute that came up during the committee hearing for the bill). The other Republican member in opposition, Sen. Blake Johnson (R-20th, Corning), argued that the bill's residual impact on when the state legislature holds fiscal sessions would disproportionately affect those members in the state in agriculture/farming.

Regardless, the SB 445 easily passed the state Senate and moves Arkansas closer to permanently shifting its presidential election year primaries to March. The House will take up the bill starting next week.


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Related:
2/6/19: Out of Arkansas, An Apparent Challenge to the New Hampshire Primary

2/11/19: Arkansas Lawmaker Signals a Scaling Back of Presidential Primary Legislation

2/16/19: Amendment to Arkansas Bill Eyes March for Presidential Primary Move

3/1/19: New March Presidential Primary Bill Flies Through Arkansas Senate Committee

3/13/19: Arkansas House Committee Advances March Presidential Primary Bill

3/19/19: On to the Governor: Super Tuesday Bill Passes Arkansas House

3/25/19: Arkansas Presidential Primary to Super Tuesday


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Friday, March 1, 2019

New March Presidential Primary Bill Flies Through Arkansas Senate Committee

Rather than continue to amend his original bill, state Senator Trent Garner (R-27th, El Dorado) filed a new version of his legislation to shift up the date of the Arkansas presidential primary from May to the first Tuesday in March.

SB 445 was introduced on Tuesday, February 26 and the impetus behind the measure was to start with a clean slate and make some technical corrections to standardize the Arkansas election code. The new bill also moves the preferential primary from late May to the first Tuesday in March, but it makes the change permanent (something that was not the case in 2015 when the primary in the Natural state was similarly shifted but only temporarily). The legislation would permanently schedule the Arkansas consolidated primary for March in presidential election years and May in gubernatorial (midterm) years, while also allowing for school board elections to take place in either spot or during the November general election.

Garner in introducing the bill to the Senate State Agencies and Government Affairs Committee during a hearing on Thursday, February 28 made all the typical arguments for an earlier primary, focusing mainly on the potential attention the move to Super Tuesday would facilitate in the state and closed by saying that Governor Asa Hutchinson supported the shift. While there was some discussion among the committee members on the bill, most of it followed similar lines and was favorable. A representative for county clerks and elections administrators raised some red flags about the constant back and forth nature of the timing of Arkansas primaries in presidential years over time, but did not oppose the move.

After a brief hearing, the committee, on a voice vote with minimal dissent, signed off on the bill with a do pass recommendation. The measure now heads to the state Senate for consideration of the full chamber.


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Related:
2/6/19: Out of Arkansas, An Apparent Challenge to the New Hampshire Primary

2/11/19: Arkansas Lawmaker Signals a Scaling Back of Presidential Primary Legislation

2/16/19: Amendment to Arkansas Bill Eyes March for Presidential Primary Move

3/9/19: Arkansas Senate Makes Quick Work of March Presidential Primary Bill

3/13/19: Arkansas House Committee Advances March Presidential Primary Bill

3/19/19: On to the Governor: Super Tuesday Bill Passes Arkansas House

3/25/19: Arkansas Presidential Primary to Super Tuesday

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Saturday, February 16, 2019

Amendment to Arkansas Bill Eyes March for Presidential Primary Move

New Hampshire can rest easy again.

Yes, the Iowa Democrats released their draft delegate selection plan this week, and the new process was seemingly distinct enough to avoid any future "similar contest" designation from Secretary of State Gardner. But the Granite state also lost a potential threat in Arkansas this past week as well.

Legislation introduced last week in the Natural state would have scheduled the Arkansas primary for the second Tuesday in February, the date tentatively reserved by the national parties for the New Hampshire primary. No, the threat was not much of a threat to the first-in-the-nation status New Hampshire has enjoyed. Secretary Gardner, after all, could easily move the primary in the Granite state to an earlier date in response. But with an amendment to that Arkansas legislation (SB 276), both New Hampshire's status and tentative position on the calendar are in the clear. And Arkansas would, if the amended bill passes and is signed into law, avoid any national party penalties as well.

The amendment shifts the proposed preferential primary date -- the initial round in Arkansas -- to the first Tuesday in March with the general primary -- the runoff round for other offices -- following four weeks later. This reverses the sequence that has been established in Arkansas law for years; that the runoff is set first and the initial round is set some set number of weeks before that general primary. It is a counterintuitive set up, but one that is more natural under the proposed amendment.

Although the bill was twice on the agenda of the State Agencies and Governmental Affairs Committee in the Arkansas state Senate for an initial hearing this past week, it was bumped down the list both times. Part of that was to allow for the amendment to be added before the bill was heard. Now amended, the new version is now on the committee agenda for the coming week.

The question then becomes whether Arkansas will join other states on Super Tuesday.


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Related:
2/6/19: Out of Arkansas, An Apparent Challenge to the New Hampshire Primary

2/11/19: Arkansas Lawmaker Signals a Scaling Back of Presidential Primary Legislation

3/1/19: New March Presidential Primary Bill Flies Through Arkansas Senate Committee

3/9/19: Arkansas Senate Makes Quick Work of March Presidential Primary Bill

3/13/19: Arkansas House Committee Advances March Presidential Primary Bill

3/19/19: On to the Governor: Super Tuesday Bill Passes Arkansas House

3/25/19: Arkansas Presidential Primary to Super Tuesday

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Monday, February 11, 2019

Arkansas Lawmaker Signals a Scaling Back of Presidential Primary Legislation

Last week legislation was filed in Arkansas to move the presidential primary in the Natural state from May into February on the date tentatively set aside for the New Hampshire primary.

Regardless of the pedestrian challenge to the position of the always nimble presidential primary in the Granite state, Arkansas breaching February in 2020 would carry with it certain penalties from the national parties. And losing half of the Democratic delegation and around two-thirds of the Republican delegation to the national conventions looks to be enough to deter any further push to maximize the position of the Arkansas primary in 2020.

According to the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette, Garner is already reconsidering the date of the primary:
In its current form, Senate Bill 276, sponsored by state Sen. Trent Garner, R-El Dorado, would set the primary election in February 2020. But Garner said Thursday that he aims to move the primary election to the first Tuesday after the first Monday in March, which would be March 3, 2020. Garner said he plans to fix the bill with an amendment today. 
The 2016 primary election "had a lot of energy and candidates coming here, and I think it worked out well for everybody involved," he said. Trump was among those coming to the state. 
"Let's have that same success," Garner said. 
"We are determining through the committee process whether to make [the March primary] permanent or not," Garner said. SB276 is in the Senate State Agencies and Governmental Affairs Committee. 
"My thought process is we should [make it permanently held in March] because it was so successful. But that will be determined by the committee," Garner said. "I am very open to listening to the will of the body and the committee to determine if that's what we need to do to move forward." 
State Republican Party Chairman Doyle Webb said the party supports Garner's legislation. 
"The change allows us to comply with party rules in the selection of delegates to the [Republican National Convention]," Webb said in a text message to this newspaper.
[NOTE: Webb is not only the Arkansas Republican Party chairman but the general counsel to the Republican National Committee as well. In other words, a rebuke of the February primary option was inevitable from the chief interpreter of the RNC rules.]

As FHQ pointed out last week, these moves have never come easily in Arkansas because they have typically meant moving the whole consolidated primary up with the presidential primary. That appears to be problematic for at least one subset of officeholders (or prospective officeholders). Arkansas judges will also be on the ballot on the date of the presidential primary, but the runoff for those elections would not be until the November election. Adding nearly three months would greatly increase the general election campaign for judicial candidates.


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Related:
2/6/19: Out of Arkansas, An Apparent Challenge to the New Hampshire Primary

2/16/19: Amendment to Arkansas Bill Eyes March for Presidential Primary Move

3/1/19: New March Presidential Primary Bill Flies Through Arkansas Senate Committee

3/9/19: Arkansas Senate Makes Quick Work of March Presidential Primary Bill

3/13/19: Arkansas House Committee Advances March Presidential Primary Bill

3/19/19: On to the Governor: Super Tuesday Bill Passes Arkansas House

3/25/19: Arkansas Presidential Primary to Super Tuesday


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Wednesday, February 6, 2019

Out of Arkansas, An Apparent Challenge to the New Hampshire Primary

This morning new legislation was introduced in the Arkansas state legislature to move the May consolidated primary -- including the presidential primary -- into February.

SB 276, filed by state Senator Trent Garner (R-27th, El Dorado), would push the general primary from the third Tuesday in June to the first Tuesday in March. But here is the catch: the language of the nomination process in the Natural state is unconventional. The general primary refers to a runoff election, but that is the election described/scheduled in the current elections statute. The scheduling of the preferential primary -- the first round of the nomination process -- follows from that general primary date. Currently, that occurs four weeks prior to the general primary on the third Tuesday in May.

But while Garner's bill would move the general primary to a date compliant with the national party rules, again, it is a runoff. Under the legislation, the preferential primary -- the one that matters here -- would occur three weeks prior to the first Tuesday in March.

That falls on the second Tuesday in February.

...the same day as the date on which the New Hampshire presidential primary currently and tentatively scheduled.

Is this a true challenge to the New Hampshire primary?

Not really. First, Arkansas had a difficult enough time moving into March for the 2016 cycle to join the SEC primary. That entailed a last minute deal being cut in the state Senate during a 2015 special session to get a temporary primary date change approved. And that was after a similar measure failed during the regular session that same year. Then, efforts two years ago to move the primary back to March for 2020 again fell flat.

These bills have always found resistance in the state Senate and over moving the primary into winter which elongates the general election campaign. It is not a financial cost, then, that state senators have balked at in the past, but rather a change in the regular rhythms of Arkansas elections for offices up and down the ballot. And it has not helped that the past moves -- 1988, 2008 and 2016 -- have not delivered the sort of attention decision makers in the state have promised and/or desired.

Now, add to that an additional layer: encroaching on New Hampshire's turf if this bill becomes law and violating the national party rules on scheduling in the process. The penalties -- losing half of the Democratic delegation and around two-thirds of the Republican delegation -- do not make the move attractive.

To add insult to injury, Garner's bill is not aggressive enough. It would shift the Arkansas primary into the tentative position reserved for the presidential primary in Granite state, but it certainly would not keep the New Hampshire secretary of state moving the primary there to an earlier date after the Arkansas legislature has adjourned and is powerless to respond. It is that ability that has helped keep New Hampshire at the front of the presidential primary queue.

This may be another "flamethrower" but it is likely to meet the same fate as those in the past.

--
Related:
2/11/19: Arkansas Lawmaker Signals a Scaling Back of Presidential Primary Legislation

2/16/19: Amendment to Arkansas Bill Eyes March for Presidential Primary Move

3/1/19: New March Presidential Primary Bill Flies Through Arkansas Senate Committee

3/9/19: Arkansas Senate Makes Quick Work of March Presidential Primary Bill

3/13/19: Arkansas House Committee Advances March Presidential Primary Bill

3/19/19: On to the Governor: Super Tuesday Bill Passes Arkansas House

3/25/19: Arkansas Presidential Primary to Super Tuesday


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The Arkansas bill has been added to the FHQ 2020 presidential primary calendar.


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Monday, June 4, 2018

[2017-18 State Legislative Review: Proposed Primary Movement] Bids to Move Back to March Meet Dead Ends in Arkansas

This post is part of a series examining efforts -- both attempted and successful -- to move presidential primary election dates for 2020 during the now-adjourning 2017-2018 state legislative sessions in capitols across the country. While shifts tend to be rare in sessions immediately following a presidential election, introduced legislation is more common albeit unsuccessful more often than not.

--
During the 2016 cycle, for the third time during the post-reform era, the Arkansas legislature again shifted up the date of its presidential primary, joining a group of mainly southern states in the SEC primary coalition.

After some inter-chamber wrangling over how to accomplish the primary shift, legislation ultimately became law, but only temporarily. At the conclusion of the 2016 cycle, the new law met its sunset and the Arkansas primary reverted to its previous May date for subsequent cycles. That is, unless and until the legislature made the decision to make a permanent change.

To that end, the 2017 state legislature in the Natural state introduced a trio of bills aiming to place the primaries in March rather than May. The first came from the principal behind the 2015 effort to schedule an earlier primary and sought to shift a consolidated primary to what will be the second Tuesday in March for 2020.1 But the bill -- SB 122 -- state Senator Gary Stubblefield (R-6th, Branch) filed faced just enough resistance to derail the legislation. In two late January (2017) votes, Stubblefield's bill came up just short of the majority of the members of the Senate required for final passage. Despite having more yeas than nays in both cases, the legislation fell short of the 18 needed; a majority of the 35 member state Senate.2

The no votes were from a coalition of eight of the nine Democratic members and seven Republicans, and the concerns were not exactly partisan:
Some senators raised concerns about having to campaign and ask volunteers to campaign in winter weather and creating campaign seasons that would last all year. Some advocated deciding the primary date on an election-by-election basis.
Additionally, Governor Asa Hutchinson (R) opposed the Senate bill, citing issues with the transition to four year terms for county elected officials. But Hutchinson also deferred to the legislature on the matter.

--
None of that deterred members of the state House in February (2017) from launching their own effort thereafter to move the consolidated primary from May to March. HB 1697 was introduced and withdrawn due to technical issues with the bill.3 Later that bill was replaced with HB 1707 by the same author, Representative Michelle Gray (R-62nd, Melbourne), and the same robust list of co-sponsors.

Initially, HB 1707 would have shifted up the general primary -- the runoff -- to the fourth Tuesday in March and the preferential primary three weeks before that on the first Tuesday in the month. But a concurrent piece of legislation -- one which later became law -- widening the gap between the two steps of the nominations process from three to four weeks working its way through the chamber forced an amendment to HB 1707. The amended language reconciled the House bill with the rejected Senate version by scheduling the general primary for the first Tuesday in April and the preferential primary for four weeks before that.

That version overwhelmingly passed the House, 73-10, but like the Senate version before it, got bottled up in the Senate and died as the session came to a close.

--
While this is yet another story of a 2017 bill with a 2020 primary date change failing, there are some notes to flag from the 2017 maneuvering in Arkansas for when the 2020 cycle transitions into its post-midterm period and the 2019 state legislative sessions.

First, unless state Senator Stubblefield does not return to the general assembly in 2019, then there will likely be another attempt at moving the primary from May to March permanently.

Second, there may be some changes to the make up of the Arkansas state legislature in the 2018 midterms, but the state Senate was where the permanent move of the presidential primary to March in the Natural state found resistance. And even then, the proposal only just barely failed to pass. The House passed its version.

Finally, while Governor Hutchinson did not support the shift from May to March, he did defer to the legislature to make the decision. If the a bill to move the Arkansas primary can be shepherded through the state Senate, then the governor will not necessarily stand in the way.

However, all of that is a story for 2019 (but with roots in the failures to make the change permanent in both 2015 and 2017).


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The Arkansas bills have been added to the FHQ 2020 presidential primary calendar.


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1 That would not be the case in every cycle, but due to the combination of the way that Arkansas codifies the scheduling of its primaries and the calendar in 2020, the Arkansas primary, under the provisions of this bill, would have fallen on the second Tuesday in March -- March 10, 2020.

The way Arkansas sets this up is unique. Although, the sequence does not apply to a presidential primary, there are two steps to the Arkansas nomination process for other offices in the context of a consolidated primary: a preferential primary and a general primary. This is not that different from a handful of other states, but the terminology is. A general primary in Arkansas is called a runoff elsewhere. And truth be told, that is the shorthand that is used in Arkansas, but not in the language of the statute.

Said statute establishes the date of the general primary -- the second step in the sequence -- first. Currently, that is set for the third Tuesday in June. Based on that marker -- the date of the general primary -- the first step preferential primary is set for four weeks prior. That would mean that the presidential preference vote would occur in late May concurrent with the preferential primary.

And the intent of Stubblefield's bill was to keep that set up largely similar, but to shift it up on the calendar by more than two months. However, the goal was also to reestablish and make permanent the SEC primary position Arkansas had on the first Tuesday in March for the 2016 cycle. This bill fell short on that mark because there will be five Tuesday in March 2020. Setting the general primary for the first Tuesday in April and the preferential primary for four weeks before would establish a system where Arkansas would toggle back and forth between a position on the first Tuesday in March and the second Tuesday in March depending on how many Tuesdays there are in March in a given year.

This could be reconciled if the preferential primary was the established baseline from which the general primary scheduling is based, rather than vice versa. But it is not. Again, Arkansas is unique.


2 This is distinct from rules in other legislative settings in and out of Arkansas requiring a majority of those voting. For a bill to pass the Arkansas state Senate, 18 is the number -- a majority of the full Senate membership whether every member is present and voting or not. That will remain so as long as the full membership is 35 in number.

3 The bills are identical to each other with the exception of a few places where current law was struck and new passages were added but not underlined (in the original) to denote what was being added or changed in the law by the bill. HB 1707 fixed those issues and became the vehicle for the attempted primary change.

Thursday, November 3, 2016

The Electoral College Map (11/3/16)



New State Polls (11/3/16)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Clinton
Trump
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Arizona
10/29-10/31
+/-3.0%
2229 likely voters
45
44
0
+1
--
Arizona
10/30-11/1
+/-3.7%
719 likely voters
40
45
1
+5
+1.46
Arkansas
10/18-10/27
+/-4.1%
585 likely voters
31
51
18
+20
+11.64
California
10/25-10/31
--
1498 likely voters
53
33
7
+20
+22.88
Colorado
10/17-10/24
--
1004 adults
44
34
0
+10
--
Colorado
11/1-11/2
+/-4.38%
500 likely voters
44
38
7
+6
+4.18
Florida
11/1-11/2
+/-4.0%
603 likely voters
49
45
2
+4
+2.09
Georgia
10/30-11/1
+/-3.7%
707 likely voters
44
45
1
+1
+3.05
Michigan
11/2
+/-2.89%
1150 likely voters
47
44
2
+3
+7.04
New Hampshire
10/29-11/1
+/-4.4%
500 likely voters
39
40
4
+1
--
New Hampshire
10/31-11/2
+/-4.0%
600 likely voters
43
48
4
+5
--
New Hampshire
10/31-11/2
+/-4.4%
500 likely voters
42
42
8
+/-0
+5.09
North Carolina
10/27-11/1
+/-2.88%
1150 likely voters
44
49
3
+5
+1.45
Texas
10/30-11/1
+/-3.8%
679 likely voters
40
49
1
+9
--
Texas
10/31-11/1
+/-3.6%
700 likely voters
35
49
8
+14
+7.51
Utah
10/29-10/31
+/-4.0%
750 likely voters
31
42
2
+11
--
Utah
10/30-11/2
+/-4.9%
402 likely voters
31
37
2
+6
--
Utah
11/1-11/2
+/-3.0%
1000 likely voters
20
40
8
+20
+9.861
1Excluding the two head-to-head online panel surveys in Utah lowers Trump's average advantage there to 8.00 points. Those polls are outliers in view of the majority of surveys in the Beehive state during 2016 and serve as an anchor on the data. The change would shift Utah within the Lean Trump category, closer to Toss Up Trump. McMullin garnered 21% in the Rassmussen survey, 24% support in the Monmouth survey and 28% in the Emerson poll. He currently has an FHQ graduated weighted average share of support of 22.81%, trailing both Trump and Clinton.


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Changes (11/3/16)
5 days to go.

Another fairly busy day brought 18 surveys from eleven different states. For the most part the drift toward Trump continued, but that trend was clearer in some states than others. It was a bad day for Clinton, for example, in New Hampshire where a trio of polls found her tied or behind the New York businessman. What is interesting about New Hampshire is that it had been rather impervious to Trump for Clinton. Through that late September period before the first debate when the former Secretary of State's fortunes were ebbing, her support in the Granite state barely budged. That is different now. Although the tide has turned, the echo of the older data is keeping Clinton's advantage there comfortable enough. It is notable, though, that Pennsylvania and New Hampshire swapped spots on the Electoral College Spectrum. Typically those within category shifts are pretty minor, but any movement among states near or next to the tipping point state is worth highlighting.

But that tipping point state -- Colorado -- is back on the list of states with new polls today. While the Centennial state turned in a decent day for Trump yesterday -- pulling closer but not into the lead -- it reversed course today with a couple of wider margins in Clinton's favor. Yes, one of those is dated, but that poll plus another Clinton +6 was enough to ease Colorado back onto the Watch List. If Trump is going to get to 270, the shortest path will be to sweep the toss ups and take the two states above -- Colorado and New Hampshire -- where the durability of Clinton's leads has faltered to some degree. That is still a tall order, but not as tall as it once was. And mind you, that path heads straight up to the top of the middle column in the Spectrum in order.

The only other change was in Utah. The Beehive state switched places with Indiana on the Spectrum at the far end of the Lean Trump category. It is worth noting that Trump has consolidated enough support in Utah to push back within range of 40 percent. No, that does not look great, but when one's main rivals in the state are roughly splitting the remaining 60 percent, then one is in good enough shape to win. [Incidentally, that same sort of Trump consolidation seems to be at work in Texas. But instead of topping out at 40 percent as in Utah, he is closing in on 50 percent. Gone are those recent polls that had Trump and Clinton tight in the low to mid-40s in the Lone Star state.]

The map and the 340-198 electoral vote distribution remain the same as they have, but that is more a function of there being no new surveys in Ohio and Nevada and a favorable Clinton poll in North Carolina. If any states are going to flip given the current trajectory of the race, then it will be those three. Florida remains slightly more insulated, but could be considered a fourth state, taking things right up to that tipping point.


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The Electoral College Spectrum1
MD-102
(13)
RI-4
(162)
NH-4
(263)
TX-38
(161)
TN-11
(61)
HI-4
(17)
NJ-14
(176)
CO-94
(272 | 275)
SC-9
(123)
AR-6
(50)
VT-3
(20)
OR-7
(183)
FL-29
(301 | 266)
MO-10
(114)
ND-3
(44)
MA-11
(31)
NM-5
(188)
NC-15
(316 | 237)
IN-11
(104)
NE-53
(41)
CA-55
(86)
MN-10
(198)
NV-6
(322 | 222)
UT-6
(93)
KY-8
(36)
NY-29
(115)
MI-16
(214)
OH-18
(340 | 216)
MS-6
(87)
AL-9
(28)
IL-20+13
(136)
ME-23
(216)
IA-6
(198)
KS-6
(81)
ID-4
(19)
DE-3
(139)
WI-10
(226)
AZ-11
(192)
SD-3
(75)
WV-5
(15)
WA-12
(151)
VA-13
(239)
GA-16+13
(181)
LA-8
(72)
OK-7
(10)
CT-7
(158)
PA-20
(259)
AK-3
(164)
MT-3
(64)
WY-3
(3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics.
To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College.

3 Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral college votes to candidates in a more proportional manner. The statewide winner receives the two electoral votes apportioned to the state based on the two US Senate seats each state has. Additionally, the winner within a congressional district is awarded one electoral vote. Given current polling, all five Nebraska electoral votes would be allocated to Trump. In Maine, a split seems more likely. Trump leads in Maine's second congressional district while Clinton is ahead statewide and in the first district. She would receive three of the four Maine electoral votes and Trump the remaining electoral vote. Those congressional district votes are added approximately where they would fall in the Spectrum above.

4 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category.



NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.


The Watch List1
State
Switch
Alaska
from Lean Trump
to Toss Up Trump
Colorado
from Toss Up Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Indiana
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
Iowa
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Clinton
Mississippi
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Nevada
from Toss Up Clinton
to Toss Up Trump
New Hampshire
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
Ohio
from Toss Up Clinton
to Toss Up Trump
Oregon
from Lean Clinton
to Strong Clinton
Pennsylvania
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
Utah
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (11/2/16)

The Electoral College Map (11/1/16)

Happy Halloween, 2016

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