Showing posts with label Indiana. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Indiana. Show all posts

Friday, October 30, 2020

The Electoral College Map (10/30/20)

Update for October 30.


The final full work week prior to election day next Tuesday came to a close Friday laden with another [totally expected] round poll releases. In all, there were 37 new surveys added from 21 states, fueled by a 16 state wave from Swayable that offered some interesting results that were not necessarily in sync with what has been established in state-level polls across the country in 2020. Across the full set of the day's surveys five of the FHQ categories were represented with only the small group of Lean Trump states left out. 

But as this race eases into the weekend before voting concludes next week, things are probably pretty close to locked in at FHQ. As the days dwindle, movement in the order will likely be confined to the states on the Watch List below. And even among that group of eight states -- now that New Hampshire has rejoined the List -- only three are within a fraction of a point of shifting over the partisan line and altering the overall electoral vote tally. The trajectory of recent polling suggests that Georgia is likely to stay on the Biden side of the line and that Iowa is closing, pushing toward the former vice president as well. Ohio, on the other hand, has moved in the opposite direction toward the periphery of even being included on the Watch List. 

Aside from those three and barring an absolute flood of polling from North Carolina and/or Texas (and Maine's second congressional district for that matter), those states are also likely to stay just where they are at FHQ. Both have proven to be have been consistently close but persistently on their respective sides of the partisan line. That does not mean, however, that either is destined to fall in their projected categories come Tuesday (or in the following few days), but rather that each is within a range where a polling error of two or three points could easily place either in the other candidate's coalition of states once the dust has settled.

On to the polls...


Polling Quick Hits:
Connecticut
(Biden 51, Trump 26 via Sacred Heart University)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +23.99] 
Biden 47, Trump 34 in April poll

Clearly Sacred Heart does not aggressively push their undecideds. There is still a 20 percent chunk of respondents in this latest survey that fall in that category. But even with such a high share of undecideds, Biden still has a 25 point advantage over Trump in a state that will be blue when the votes come in. 


Florida
(Biden 52, Trump 45 via Public Policy Polling | Biden 50, Trump 47 via Harris Poll)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.08] 
Public Policy Polling: Biden 48, Trump 44 in August poll
Harris: Biden 48, Trump 48 in mid-October poll

FHQ mentioned this yesterday and will repeat it today given these two new surveys out of the Sunshine state: The race in Florida may in fact be narrowing, but Biden continues to hit 50 percent in polls at a higher clip as election day approaches than he did in earlier times. Both updates also shifted in the Democratic nominee's favor as well. 


Georgia
(Trump 48, Biden 47 via Landmark Communications)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +0.41] 
Trump 49, Biden 45 in poll last week

The Landmark Communications series of polls in the Peach state this year has tended to favor the president with only one exception: the poll in the field the day after the first presidential debate at the end of September. Biden led that survey by a couple of points, but has consistently trailed Trump in the series. Yet, the president's edge shrunk in the last week since the previous Landmark survey. Although the poll shows Trump in the lead, the movement toward Biden is consistent with other recent polling of Georgia.


Kentucky
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +18.09] 
No previous Bluegrass poll

That the president had but 52 percent of respondents backing him in this Bluegrass C&T  poll is largely attributable to the nearly 10 percent of the sample that remained undecided. Like Connecticut, however, Kentucky is a safe state, but one that tips in Trump's direction. But it should be noted that this matches the lowest share of support the president has had in any Kentucky poll all year. But Biden has been fairly stable in the upper 30s in recent polls and the Bluegrass state will be red on Tuesday or soon thereafter.


Michigan
(Biden 54, Trump 44 via Public Policy Polling | Biden 51, Trump 44 via RMG Research | Biden 54, Trump 41 via Kiaer Research)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +7.43] 
Public Policy Polling: Biden 50, Trump 43 in poll last week
RMG Research: Biden 48, Trump 42 in mid-October poll
Kiaer Research: Biden 50, Trump 35 in June poll

The big thing in Michigan at this late date is that after weeks of being on the cusp of cresting above 50 percent in the FHQ averages, Biden has finally done so after another batch surveys on Friday showing the former vice president over that threshold across the board. And with the exception of the Kiaer survey, the Democratic nominee's edge has increased from poll-to-poll as well. Even in that survey, Biden maintains a double digit lead.


Nevada
(Biden 50, Trump 44 via Gravis Marketing)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +4.65] 
No previous Gravis poll [Current FHQ averages in Nevada: Biden 49, Trump 44 (rounded)]

While this Gravis poll of the Silver state basically falls right on the established FHQ average margin in Nevada, it did bump the margin up toward the five point line that separates the Toss Up and Lean categories. Nevada remains a toss up under the FHQ averages, but that may be partially explained by the general lack of polling overall in the state. There have been just 21 surveys of Silver state voters, but Biden has been hovering around 50 percent much of the time. The former vice president has hit or surpassed that threshold eight time with half coming during the month of October alone. 


New Hampshire
(Biden 53, Trump 45 via University of New Hampshire | Biden 52, Trump 44 via Saint Anselm)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +10.81] 
UNH: Biden 55, Trump 43 in mid-October poll
Saint Anselm: Biden 53, Trump 41 in early October poll

While much of the new polling today shifted in Biden's direction, the latest updates from Granite state university polls saw some contraction in the margins in both over the last surveys in the series. Despite that decrease, however, the president continues to lag overall by more than ten points in a state that was decided by less than a point four years ago. Trump did make up some ground, pulling out of the low 40s in both polls. He currently sits at 42 percent in the FHQ averages.


North Carolina
(Trump 48, Biden 47 via Pulse Opinion Research | Biden 51, Trump 46 via Harris Poll | Trump 48, Biden 46 via Cardinal Point Analytics | Biden 50, Trump 48 via East Carolina | Biden 52, Trump 46 via Marist)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +1.85] 
Pulse Opinion Research: Trump 49, Biden 48 in mid-October poll
No previous Harris poll
Cardinal Point: Trump 48, Biden 47 in July poll
ECU: Biden 51, Trump 47 in mid-October poll
Marist: Biden 51, Trump 44 in July poll

The one take home message from another slew of polling out of the Tar Heel state is that North Carolina is close. That is not news. But on top of that, there is little change across any of these polls from their prior times in the field in the state. It was movement of a point for either candidate and no more than a two point swing in any of them. Of course, a two point swing can matter in a tightly contested state. But there was a two point swing in each candidate's favor.


Pennsylvania
(Biden 52, Trump 45 via Public Policy Polling | Biden 51, Trump 46 via Harris Poll)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +5.43] 
Public Policy Polling: Biden 51, Trump 46 in poll last week
Harris: Biden 51, Trump 46 in mid-October poll

As tiring as it might get saying this, there were another two polls in the Keystone state today and both, again, had Biden around 50 percent and Trump in the mid-40s. The consistency across pollsters in Pennsylvania is what continues to be most noteworthy. The uncertainty in the commonwealth is less in the polls and more about turnout and any court challenges about the vote counting process there. 


Texas
(Trump 50, Biden 46 via RMG Research)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +1.45] 
No previous RMG poll [Current FHQ averages in Texas: Trump 48, Biden 46 (rounded)]

FHQ often talks about how often Biden tops 50 percent in the blue wall states that are in the Lean Biden category, but it is an indicator of sorts for the president in red state polling as well. Of the 67 surveys conducted thus far in the Lone Star state, Trump has hit or surpassed the majority mark in roughly a fifth of them. A little less than a quarter of those have fallen in the month of October, a pace similar to the rest of the year. Biden, on the other, hand has been there just once. It is that difference that helps to explain the narrow lead the president has maintained in Texas throughout 2020. The Lone Star state has been close all along, but like North Carolina on the other side of the partisan line for Biden, has been tipped in the president's favor.


Wyoming
(Trump 59, Biden 31 via University of Wyoming)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +39.52] 
No previous University of Wyoming poll [Current FHQ averages in Wyoming: Trump 68, Biden 29 (rounded)]

A rare update in Wyoming shows Trump coming in well under what one might expect in the Equality state for a Republican presidential nominee. However, even with a share of support under 60 percent and nearly ten points off his average at FHQ, the president is far out in front in the state occupying the last cell on the far right end of the Electoral College Spectrum below. The polling has been scant in the Cowboy state in 2020, but it collectively has both candidates within a point of their parties' presidential performance in the state in 2016.


Swayable (October battleground and assorted polls -- initial public wave of releases):
Alabama: Trump 56, Biden 37 [Current FHQ margin: Trump +19.75] 
Ohio: Trump 55, Biden 44 [Current FHQ margin: Trump +1.00] 
Indiana: Trump 53, Biden 42 [Current FHQ margin: Trump +11.36] 
Florida: Trump 51, Biden 46
Texas: Trump 49, Biden 48
Georgia: Biden 51, Trump 48
North Carolina: Biden 50, Trump 48
Pennsylvania: Biden 52, Trump 46
Arizona: Biden 52, Trump 44 [Current FHQ margin: Biden +2.98] 
Wisconsin: Biden 54, Trump 45 [Current FHQ margin: Biden +6.49] 
Virginia: Biden 55, Trump 44 [Current FHQ margin: Biden +11.79] 
Illinois: Biden 54, Trump 43 [Current FHQ margin: Biden +18.32] 
Michigan: Biden 59, Trump 40
New Jersey: Biden 62, Trump 38 [Current FHQ margin: Biden +20.09] 
California: Biden 62, Trump 35 [Current FHQ margin: Biden +29.36] 
New York: Biden 65, Trump 33 [Current FHQ margin: Biden +29.56] 

This is an interesting wave of polls from Swayable made all the more so by a couple of glaring standouts. Not only is the order not particularly in line with the established order of states at FHQ, but the world where Trump is ahead by 12 in Ohio and Biden is up 19 in neighboring Michigan is a strange world indeed. But a 31 point gap between the two in these surveys is a significant departure from the eight points that separated the two Rust Belt states in 2016 and the roughly equivalent space between them in the averages at FHQ. The picture here at FHQ is one of a uniform swing for Michigan and Ohio relative to each other from four years ago. Yet, the snapshot in the small sample Swayable polls is one big shifts but in opposite directions. Take these with a grain of salt. 

One other footnote here with respect to Ohio is that the average margin in the Buckeye state rounds up to Trump +1 right on the nose. But since the margin there is technically Trump +0.9985, the Buckeye state remains on the Watch List below, but only just barely. 




NOTE: 


The Electoral College Spectrum1
DC-3
VT-3
(6)2
NJ-14
(156)
WI-10
(253)
AK-3
(125)
TN-11
(60)
MA-11
(17)
OR-7
(163)
PA-203
(273 | 285)
MO-10
(122)
KY-8
(49)
MD-10
(27)
IL-20
(183)
NV-6
(279 | 265)
SC -9
(112)
SD-3
(41)
HI-4
(31)
ME-2
(185)
FL-29
(308 | 259)
MT-3
NE CD1-1
(103)
AL-9
(38)
NY-29
(60)
CO-9
(194)
AZ-11
(319 | 230)
KS-6
(99)
ID-4
(29)
CA-55
(115)
VA-13
(207)
NC-15
ME CD2-1
(335 | 219)
IN-11
(93)
AR-6
(25)
DE-3
(118)
NH-4
(211)
GA-16
(351 | 203)
NE-2
(82)
OK-7
(19)
WA-12
(130)
NM-5
(216)
IA-6
(187)
UT-6
(80)
ND-3
(12)
ME CD1-1
CT-7
(138)
MN-10
(226)
OH-18
(181)
MS-6
(74)
WV-5
(9)
RI-4
(142)
NE CD2-1
MI-16
(243)
TX-38
(163)
LA-8
(68)
WY-3
NE CD3-1
(4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 285 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trump's is on the right in bold italics.

3 Pennsylvania
 is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. The tipping point cell is shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is.

All those surveys -- again, 37 polls in 21 states -- and there was little in the way of change that materialized at FHQ. The new Swayable poll out of the Land of Lincoln decreased the margin there enough to shift Illinois past both New Jersey and Oregon in the order, moving it closer to the partisan line. The same was true in neighboring Indiana, where the margin contract to the point that the Hoosier state traded spots in the order with Nebraska. Indiana is now the most competitive of the Strong Trump states. And the two university surveys out of the Granite state nudged New Hampshire back onto the Watch List a day after at least one outlier from ARG moved it off the list.

But that was it.  Friday came and went with a raft of new polling data that mostly confirmed the status quo in this race for the White House. 

4 days to go.


Where things stood at FHQ on October 30 (or close to it) in...
2016
2012
2008


--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State
Potential Switch
Georgia
from Toss Up Biden
to Toss Up Trump
Iowa
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Biden
Kansas
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
Nevada
from Toss Up Biden
to Lean Biden
New Hampshire
from Strong Biden
to Lean Biden
New Mexico
from Strong Biden
to Lean Biden
Ohio
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Biden
Pennsylvania
from Lean Biden
to Toss Up Biden
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


--
Related posts:




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Tuesday, October 27, 2020

The Electoral College Map (10/27/20)

Update for October 27.


Once the week hits Tuesday, the flow of new survey data gets turned up. Or it least it has the last several weeks as election day has approached. This Tuesday -- a Tuesday just one week removed from election day on November 3 -- was no different. There were 22 polls released since the last FHQ update from 17 different states representing all six categories. The balance continued to tilt in the former vice president's direction overall but also in this batch of surveys. Obviously the map still depicts a tally that favors Biden, but the Democratic nominee saw the margins in 11 of those 17 states. Six of the eight toss up states at FHQ had new polls released today -- only Ohio and Texas were not represented -- and Biden's margin ticked up in four of them. But the two where Trump closed the gap were notable. Unfortunately, for the president, both Florida and North Carolina continue to be consistently tipped toward Biden. 

Anyway, there is a lot to look at today, so on to the polls... 


Polling Quick Hits:
Arizona
(Biden 49, Trump 46)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +2.88] 
The update from OH Predictive in Arizona maintains the status quo in the series. Earlier this month, the firm pegged the presidential race in the Grand Canyon state at Biden, 49-45. Trump gained a point, then, but this latest survey is consistent with all of the polls in the series since July with the exception of the outlier OH Predictive survey that had Biden ahead by ten points. 


California
(Biden 65, Trump 29)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +29.56] 
Further west in California, the race for the biggest electoral vote prize looks as predictable as it has in most recent cycles. Biden has the edge in the latest UC-Berkeley poll, but this one dies represent a slight contraction from the 67-28 lead the former vice president held in the mid-September survey of the Golden state. What is perhaps most interesting is that after the addition of this poll, the FHQ average in the state stood at Biden 61-32. That represent almost no swing from election day 2016 (Clinton won 62-32 in California.) to 2020 polling


Florida
(Biden 50, Trump 48 via Florida Atlantic | Trump 49, Biden 44 via Susquehanna)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.12] 
The pair of polls out of the Sunshine state today both shifted in Trump's direction since the last surveys in their respective series. Biden retained the lead in FAU poll, but saw his advantage cut in half since the last poll earlier this month. However, the new poll pushes back toward the tie the university pollsters found in early September. The former vice president led in the last Susquehanna poll as well, but that three point advantage in late September disappeared in the interim period and was replaced by this latest Trump +5 survey. And while 49 percent is toward the top of the president's range in his adopted home state, Biden's 44 percent share is unusual. The former vice president has dipped below 45 percent in Florida polls in 2020, but in 102 surveys of the Sunshine state this year, it has only happened four times. That makes this one an outlier.


Georgia
(Biden 51, Trump 46)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +0.25] 
Florida was hardly the only place where Biden ended up a bit far afield of his normal range. But in the new Civiqs update, the Democratic nominee's share ran ahead of his established average here at FHQ rather than behind it as in the Susquehanna survey of Florida. Currently, the FHQ average in the Peach state sits at a 47-47 tie, and the last two iterations of the Civiqs polls have tended to have Biden not only ahead, but topping 50 percent. In the 32 polls conducted in Georgia since the beginning of September, Biden has been at or over 50 percent just six times. It happens, and far more frequently as compared to Georgia polling before September, but it is still not necessarily a common landing point for Biden. Still, this poll represents a two point swing toward Biden since the last poll -- Biden, 50-47 -- from Civiqs last month.


Indiana
(Trump 48, Biden 40)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +11.45] 
The first publicly available Ragnar Research survey of Indiana in calendar 2020 finds Trump's support ebbing to its lowest level in the state all year. It is the Trump number, then, in this survey that is more off target, lagging about five points off the president's established average share at FHQ. As of now, the average in the Hoosier state has Trump out to a comfortable 53-41 advantage, which leaves Indiana about where the average swing from 2016 to the polling now. Biden has gained a couple of points on Clinton's showing there four years ago, and the president has trailed off by more than four points. 


Iowa
(Biden 50, Trump 46)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +0.63] 
There is perhaps a reason Joe Biden is heading to Iowa on Friday. Polls like the update from RABA Research in the state point toward a race that has not only narrowed during October, but has begun to favor the former vice president. Biden did lead 48-46 in the last RABA poll at the end of September and that edge has doubled since then with the Democratic nominee now topping 50 percent. That is a level that Biden has hit or surpassed in a quarter of the 12 surveys released this month in the Hawkeye state. Furthermore, he has been tied or ahead in ten of those 12 polls. As Biden has risen, Trump has stayed around a 47 percent average share of support in Iowa.


Kansas
(Trump 52, Biden 38)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +9.37] 
Although it offered a very small sample -- just over 300 registered voters -- the Fort Hays State survey was on par with where the president has been both in other recent polls in the Sunflower state and in the FHQ average. But this is another poll where the Biden number was off the mark. Generally, the former vice president has outperformed the Clinton baseline from 2016 by six points, but this survey has him much closer to where Clinton ended up in Kansas four years ago. Kansas is still very much a red state at the high end of the Lean Trump category, but it is also a state with an above average swing toward the Democrats during this cycle. It is a ten point shift from election day 2016 to the polling in 2020 with Trump losing four points off his pace in that time. 


Louisiana
(Trump 59, Biden 36)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +17.59] 
Interestingly, the shift in Louisiana has been far less pronounced. Biden has run almost even with Clinton in the Pelican state while Trump lags just a couple of points behind his showing there. Of course, polling has not exactly been prevalent in Louisiana in calendar 2020, but the new University of New Orleans survey finds Trump toward his apex in Louisiana polling this year. Biden, meanwhile ends up at the bottom of his range. The end result is a poll that pushes the FHQ averages toward the 2016 finish in the state. 


Maryland
(Biden 58, Trump 33)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +30.73] 
Today's update is the first Gonzales Research survey of the Old Line state since May. And the underlying story the polls have collectively told is one of Biden falling short of 60 percent in Maryland. But the two polls in this series are the only ones to show that all year. And at Biden, 58-33, this poll is further off the 63-32 advantage the former vice president currently holds in the FHQ averages. That would represent a below average five point swing toward the Democrats since 2016 with Biden gaining nearly three points on Clinton and Trump losing two. 


Michigan
(Biden 53, Trump 43)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +7.16] 
Yet another update to the Ipsos series in the Great Lakes state finds Biden incrementally adding to his 52-44 lead from a week ago. But that is both a small change and one that is in line with where Ipsos has had the race in Michigan over the last two months. However, while the margin in this survey falls outside of the Biden +6-9 point range into which the bulk of Michigan surveys have recently fallen, it is yet another poll with the former vice president at or over 50 percent. And his FHQ average share of support continues to track toward 50 percent as well. 


Minnesota
(Biden 53, Trump 39)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +8.51] 
Gravis Marketing was last in the field in Minnesota in June and had Biden out to a commanding 58-42 lead among a sample of registered voters. The switch to likely voters appears to have come with a less aggressive prompt of undecided voters and saw both candidates lose support as compared to the summer poll. But this was another poll in the Land of 10,000 Lakes with Biden north of 50 percent and President Trump continuing to hover in the low 40s. And ultimately the survey is not that far from the current FHQ average in Minnesota. The Democratic nominee now leads the president here 51-42. With a week to go, Minnesota does not appear to be the flip opportunity the president's reelection campaign came into the cycle envisioning. 


Mississippi
(Trump 55, Biden 41)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +15.41] 
Mississippi, like Louisiana above, is another Deep South state where the 2020 picture through the lens of the state-level polls looks quite similar to where the race ended in the Magnolia state in 2016. And the new Civiqs poll -- its first in Mississippi this calendar year -- is consistent with the current 55-40 Trump advantage in the FHQ averages. Both the poll and the averages find Biden in line with Clinton's showing in the state in 2016 as Trump is just more than two points off his mark from four years ago.


Montana
(Trump 49, Biden 47)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +7.80] 
Not surprisingly, a Public Policy Polling survey that has Montana closer than it has been in any presidential poll of the state all year also has Biden at his peak level there. But the Trump side of the equation also contributes to that tight margin. The president has only been below 49 percent once all year, so this one is also at the bottom of his range in the Treasure state. Two weeks ago, PPP did not find the race as close. Then, Trump maintained a 52-46 advantage that is more in line with the 51-44 edge the president has in the FHQ averages. 


Nevada
(Biden 50, Trump 41 via UNLV Lee Business School | Biden 49, Trump 43 via Siena/NYT Upshot)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +4.55] 
The two new polls out of the Silver state today tell a similar story but took different routes in getting there. In the UNLV survey, Biden rose four points to 50 percent since the university pollsters September poll, and Trump held steady at 41 percent. That Biden around 50 percent and Trump in the low 40s outcome was also what Siena showed in Nevada, but that polls change since earlier this month was minimal. Biden tacked on an additional point, but here, too, Trump held pat. Both surveys depict a widening Biden lead that is a bit out in front of the FHQ averages in the Silver state. Here Biden is ahead 49-44.


North Carolina
(Biden 51, Trump 47 via Public Policy Polling | Biden 49, Trump 48 via Ipsos | Biden 48, Trump 47 via RMG Research | Biden 48, Trump 48 via Survey USA)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +1.80] 
Tuesday was another day that witnessed a rash of poll releases in the Tar Heel state. And all operated within a pretty tight range. Biden led in three of the four surveys, and they all overstate both candidates' support relative the 48-46 edge the former vice president continues to hold in North Carolina. But all four poll have margins that are on par with that Biden +2 lead at FHQ. Both the PPP and Ipsos updates were in line with their surveys out earlier this month. Nether candidate shifted more than a point in either. The RMG Research poll was barely any different, but found Trump moving up two points and drawing the Biden advantage in the last poll down to just a point. The largest change was in the Survey USA poll. But even that was indicative of a regression to the mean from an outlier than anything else. The Democratic nominee's 50-45 lead from early October disappeared and was replaced with a tie that was a return to what the race in North Carolina looked like in the firm's September poll. There may have been a lot of new surveys out of North Carolina today, but they all pointed toward a pretty steady race there. As FHQ has said, North Carolina is close (and has been), but is still consistently tipped the former vice president's way.


Pennsylvania
(Biden 52, Trump 45)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +5.39] 
The steadiness of the North Carolina polls is mirrored in the Civiqs series in the Keystone state. All three October surveys from the firm have had Biden stable at 52 percent and Trump firmly entrenched in the mid-40s. While that overstates the former vice president's support compared to the FHQ averages (Biden, 50-44), Trump's position in the October Civiqs polls has been proximate to his average. But again, one would expect polls to increasingly overstate the averages here at FHQ as more and more undecideds come off the board. The bottom line is that this is another Pennsylvania survey with Biden above 50 percent in Lean Biden state where he is closing in on 50 percent in the averages. 


South Carolina
(Trump 51, Biden 44)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +6.74] 
Last but not least, Starboard Communications conducted its first survey of the Palmetto state in calendar 2020. And while it shifted things ever so slightly in the president's direction, it fell right on the 51-44 advantage that Trump currently holds in the FHQ averages. If that is what South Carolina looks like on election next week, then it would represent about a seven point swing toward the Democrats since 2016. That is consistent with the average shift calculated across all states. 



NOTE: 


The Electoral College Spectrum1
DC-3
VT-3
(6)2
IL-20
(162)
WI-10
(253)
AK-3
(125)
TN-11
(60)
MA-11
(17)
OR-7
(169)
PA-203
(273 | 285)
MO-10
(122)
KY-8
(49)
MD-10
(27)
NJ-14
(183)
NV-6
(279 | 265)
SC -9
(112)
SD-3
(41)
HI-4
(31)
ME-2
(185)
FL-29
(308 | 259)
MT-3
NE CD1-1
(103)
AL-9
(38)
NY-29
(60)
CO-9
(194)
AZ-11
(319 | 230)
KS-6
(99)
ID-4
(29)
CA-55
(115)
VA-13
(207)
NC-15
ME CD2-1
(335 | 219)
NE-2
(93)
AR-6
(25)
DE-3
(118)
NH-4
(211)
GA-16
(351 | 203)
IN-11
(91)
OK-7
(19)
WA-12
(130)
NM-5
(216)
IA-6
(187)
UT-6
(80)
ND-3
(12)
ME CD1-1
CT-7
(138)
MN-10
(226)
OH-18
(181)
MS-6
(74)
WV-5
(9)
RI-4
(142)
NE CD2-1
MI-16
(243)
TX-38
(163)
LA-8
(68)
WY-3
NE CD3-1
(4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 285 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trump's is on the right in bold italics.

3 Pennsylvania
 is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. The tipping point cell is shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is.

All that polling data and nary a big change to speak of. Instead, it was all subtle changes -- minimal movement in the margins -- that marked Tuesday. With a week left in the voting phase of the campaign, the map remained Biden 351-187 in the electoral vote tally, and the order stayed exactly the same as it was a day ago. However, the Watch List welcomed Kansas back after it recently left. The Sunflower state is now within a point of shifting into the Strong Trump category from the Lean Trump group of states. This race is steady as she goes in the polls as filtered through the FHQ graduated weighted average. 

7 days to go.


Where things stood at FHQ on October 27 (or close to it) in...
2016
2012
2008


--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State
Potential Switch
Georgia
from Toss Up Biden
to Toss Up Trump
Iowa
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Biden
Kansas
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
Nevada
from Toss Up Biden
to Lean Biden
New Hampshire
from Strong Biden
to Lean Biden
New Mexico
from Strong Biden
to Lean Biden
Ohio
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Biden
Pennsylvania
from Lean Biden
to Toss Up Biden
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


--
Related posts:




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Wednesday, October 14, 2020

The Electoral College Map (10/14/20)

Update for October 14.


Changes (October 14)
StateBeforeAfter
Georgia
Toss Up Trump
Toss Up Biden
As the calendar flipped under three weeks until election day on November 3, Wednesday was met with a host of new state-level polling. Including some leftovers from late Tuesday, there were 21 new surveys from 13 states from across the spectrum. All six categories here at FHQ were represented. And for once a tsunami of new polling data actually triggered some changes. Georgia jumped the partisan line in order and for the second time this month became a Toss Up Biden state by the slimmest of margins. 

But as has been the case with these partisan line-jumping changes in Georgia and Ohio especially is that the moves, although consequential, are less important than the fact that both states continue to be the closest two states on the board here at FHQ. And that should likely be the take home message from this latest shift: the Peach state is close rather than Georgia is now blue. The simple fact remains that Georgia is still closer to switching back to Toss Up Trump than Ohio is to join Georgia on the Biden side of the partisan line. Obviously that could change as new polling data is revealed, but for now, both states are close. 

And not to beat a dead horse here, but if the conversation on November 3 is that Georgia and Ohio are still the most competitive states, then the former vice president is probably in good enough shape in states to the Biden side of Georgia and Ohio to be well above the 270 electoral vote mark. The order may end up being wrong where it counts in that middle column of the Spectrum in the end -- these things happen -- but it has been awfully consistent over time in this race. 

Anyway to the (flood of) polls...


Polling Quick Hits:
Florida
(Trump 48, Biden 46 via Trafalgar Group | Biden 49, Trump 47 via St. Pete Polls)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.32]
The pair of Sunshine state polls yesterday painted a similar picture, but the two from today are less consistent. And while one could raise the fact that the St. Pete Poll is more consistent with both the polls from a day ago and the average shares of support for both candidates, the truth of the matter is that both surveys are consistent with their preceding September polls. The leading candidate dropped a point in both and that is it. The polls may differ, but that neither has changed all that much over a month is the prevailing datapoint here. 


Georgia
(Biden 48, Trump 46 via Survey USA | Biden 51, Trump 44 via Quinnipiac)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +0.03] 
Georgia was another state with a couple of polls out today. One of them -- the Survey USA poll -- is more in line with the 47-47 (rounded) tie in the FHQ averages in the Peach state. The other from Quinnipiac shows some signs of being an outlier. Now, if one puts any stock in the notion that President Trump's debate performance and Covid diagnosis were injurious to his reelection chances and further that that would be reflected in this polls, then perhaps this Quinnipiac survey is less an outlier. The survey the university pollster conducted in the state immediately prior to the debate also had Biden ahead, but his advantage was 50-47. Biden's support has not really changed much since then, but Trump's definitely trailed off over the same period. Of course, being consistent with that narrative is one thing. Actually fitting in with other data is another. And clearly this one is off target among other recent Georgia polls. And to expand the scope a bit, put it this way: If Ohio and Georgia are truly as close in the order as they are in the Spectrum below, then there is little chance that while Ohio is Biden +1 that Georgia is simultaneously Biden +7. This one is an outlier unless further information comes along to confirm it in the days ahead. 


Indiana
(Trump 49, Biden 42)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +11.99]
This is the first Survey USA poll of the Hoosier state in calendar 2020 and it generally shows a race that is closer than many surveys there have. Polling has been limited in Indiana but this is just the second survey to find Trump under 50 percent in the state. The Biden number is in range of his FHQ average share of support, but it is that below average Trump share that is driving the margin down in this poll. This is not 2008 and Indiana is not a toss up or even a lean for that matter. 


Iowa
(Trump 50, Biden 44)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +1.28]
FHQ is not going to spend much time on these midwest surveys from David Binder Research. The sample across Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin was just 600 likely voters evenly split into state-level subsamples of 200. That not only leads to super high margins of error, but also means that this trio of polls has the potential to significantly diverge from the established state of the race in any of the three. That is probably most clear in Iowa. The president consistently leads there, but more narrowly than six points in most recent polls (other than Survey Monkey). Trump is toaward the upper end of his range while Biden is at the low end of his in this one. 


Louisiana
(Trump 54, Biden 36)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +16.74]
Trafalgar Group was not only in the field in Florida recently but in the Pelican state as well. And in Louisiana, Trump's support has held steady since the last poll from the firm in August. Biden meanwhile has dropped a couple of points in the same time span. This survey has both candidates lagging behind their average shares of support, but is within range of the overall average margin in Louisiana. And the end result is that Louisiana holds its ground where it was in the order. 


Michigan
(Biden 51, Trump 44 via Ipsos | Biden 48, Trump 39 via EPIC-MRA)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +7.19]
That same picture of consistency carries over into Michigan where the pair of polls from Ipsos and EPIC-MRA do not differ much from the previous polls in either series. Like the two surveys out of Florida today, the difference relative to the immediately prior polls is a point here and there. Nevermind that the margins in both surveys are in line with the overall average in the Great Lakes state. Wash, rinse, repeat. The story is the same in Michigan as well. 


Minnesota
(Biden 52, Trump 41)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +8.42]
Again, take these small sample David Binder Research surveys with a grain of salt. There are polls that have Biden up double digits in Minnesota but they are few compared to the bulk of surveys that find the race in the upper single digits. This update does show a tighter race than the Binder survey did in July when Biden was up 18. Trump gained more than Biden lost from a poll that came in during the tail end of the former vice president's early summer polling surge. But the Democratic nominee continues to maintain a comfortable lead in a state viewed as a flip opportunity in the Trump campaign. 


Montana
(Trump 51, Biden 44)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +8.60]
It has been a while since MSU Bozeman was last in the field in the Treasure state with a survey. And although Trump's lead has stretched from five to seven points, the real change is in the share of support for third party candidates and those respondents who were undecided back in April. The two major party candidates control 95 percent of the support now, but only 85 percent then. More minds have been made up in the last six months and the president still holds a large enough lead, but one that is far below the 21 point edge the president had on election day in 2016.


New Hampshire
(Biden 55, Trump 43 via UNH | Biden 51, Trump 41 via Suffolk)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +10.69]
Polling has been sporadic in the Granite state in 2020 compared to past cycles, but it has picked up in recent days and begun to more consistently find Biden ahead by double digits. That is true in both the releases today. In the last few weeks the former vice president has added a couple of points to his share of support in the UNH series of polls as Trump lost a point on his. That previous poll was in the field just before the first presidential debate, and that may have been something of a catalyst to the change, but it could just as easily be statistical noise. Regardless both of today's surveys have Biden above 50 percent in New Hampshire and his average share is approaching 53 percent. If Trump is going to flip what was a state he narrowly lost in 2016, then something is going to have to change and quickly. 


North Carolina
(Biden 46, Trump 42 via Siena/NYT Upshot | Biden 48, Trump 48 via Ipsos |
Biden 50, Trump 45 via Survey USA | Biden 48, Trump 46 via Susquehanna Polling and Research |
Biden 47, Trump 45 via RMG Research)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +1.74]
FHQ could probably do a separate post on all of the polls released from North Carolina over the last two days. But they all tell a similar story. With the exception of the Ipsos survey, Biden leads and by more than the current FHQ margin in the Tar Heel state. And pollsters that have conducted surveys in North Carolina during this cycle -- Upshot and Survey USA -- Biden's edge has increased since the last poll. [Ipsos had the race tied in September and still does now.] That has pushed what had been a consistent 47-46 (rounded) average advantage for the Democratic nominee to a 48-46 (round) lead. That change is small, but significant in a state that the president absolutely needs in order to get to 270. 


Ohio
(Biden 48, Trump 47)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +0.49]
The Georgia poll from Quinnipiac may have been an outlier, but the Ohio survey is more on target compared to other recent polls in the Buckeye state. Biden has held leads there, but again, they have tended to be small and the president still has the slight advantage overall. But while it could be argued that polling in, say, North Carolina indicates a change in the direction of the race there (toward Biden), the same is not the case in Ohio (like a number of states above). Through the Quinnipiac lens, the race has not changed at all since a September survey before the first debate. This one is well within normal polling variation.


Pennsylvania
(Biden 49, Trump 43)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +5.50]
The thing about polls of Pennsylvania at this point is that most of them fall into a range of five to six points with a few that pop up outside of that. Obviously, that does little to change the commonwealth's position in the order on the Spectrum below and the new RMG Research survey follows suit. Again, it is the consistency that is the story, one that makes Trump's prospects dim but certainly not extinguished in the Keystone state. Again, however, time is running out to reverse course there and elsewhere. 


Wisconsin
(Biden 53, Trump 43)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +6.34]
That sentiment is true in Wisconsin as well. And yes, this latest David Binder Research poll does nothing to change the president's fortunes in the Badger state, but it is a survey with a limited number of respondents. Despite that, double digit Biden leads in polls have not been uncommon in Wisconsin of late and the margin there has begun to tick upward. But this survey is consistent on the Trump number relative to the average share at FHQ and Biden's support runs a bit ahead of his. 



[Note that Survey Monkey released another round of polling in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. But as that wave was in the field from mid-September through mid-October, it overlaps with the previous round. Interviews from September 15-30 would essentially be double counted, and FHQ has opted as a result to withhold those polls until the full and separate October wave is complete.]


NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2020 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.


The Electoral College Spectrum1
DC-3
VT-3
(6)2
IL-20
(162)
WI-10
(253)
SC-9
(125)
TN-11
(60)
MA-11
(17)
OR-7
(169)
PA-203
(273 | 285)
MO-10
(116)
KY-8
(49)
MD-10
(27)
NJ-14
(183)
NV-6
(279 | 265)
AK-3
(116)
AL-9
(41)
CA-55
(82)
ME-2
(185)
FL-29
(308 | 259)
KS-6
(103)
SD-3
(32)
NY-29
(111)
CO-9
(194)
AZ-11
(319 | 230)
NE CD1-1
MT-3
(97)
ID-4
(29)
HI-4
(115)
VA-13
(207)
NC-15
ME CD2-1
(335 | 219)
NE-2
(93)
AR-6
(25)
DE-3
(118)
NH-4
(211)
GA-16
(351 | 203)
IN-11
(91)
OK-7
(19)
WA-12
(130)
NM-5
(216)
OH-18
(187)
UT-6
(80)
ND-3
(12)
ME CD1-1
CT-7
(138)
MN-10
(226)
IA-6
(169)
MS-6
(74)
WV-5
(9)
RI-4
(142)
NE CD2-1
MI-16
(243)
TX-38
(163)
LA-8
(68)
WY-3
NE CD3-1
(4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 285 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trump's is on the right in bold italics.

3 Pennsylvania
 is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. The tipping point cell is shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is.

There was a flood of polling data released today on the state-level and while one can point to some examples of Biden stretching out his advantage over the president, there was just as much if not more to suggest that the race has barely changed if at all. One place where things did change -- and on the weight of a likely outlier poll -- was Georgia. The Peach state jumped the partisan line and rejoined the former vice president's coalition of states. But that margin -- Biden +0.03 -- suggests that it may not be there to stay. Again, the take home message is that Georgia remains close, and that is not what the president's campaign wants at this point in time. That is all one needs to know about why the president will be there on Friday. Georgia, however, retains its cell (just not its shade) on the Spectrum and switches potential changes on the Watch List below. Other than that, though, everything else is as it was a day ago. 

20 days to go.


Where things stood at FHQ on October 14 (or close to it) in...
2016
2012
2008


--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State
Potential Switch
Georgia
from Toss Up Biden
to Toss Up Trump
New Hampshire
from Strong Biden
to Lean Biden
New Mexico
from Strong Biden
to Lean Biden
Ohio
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Biden
Pennsylvania
from Lean Biden
to Toss Up Biden
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


--
Related posts:




Follow FHQ on TwitterInstagram and Facebook or subscribe by Email.