Showing posts with label South Dakota. Show all posts
Showing posts with label South Dakota. Show all posts

Sunday, October 25, 2020

The Electoral College Map (10/25/20)

Update for October 25.


FHQ called last weekend the calm before the storm. And that certainly ended up being at least somewhat prophetic as an avalanche of new polling data was released throughout the last week. But this weekend has been less sedate on the polling release front. Yes, yesterday's update was buoyed by some late Friday polls, but Sunday saw eight new polls out of seven mainly battleground states. The only exception was a rare update in South Dakota. But other than that, the focus of today's releases was either in blue wall states the president flipped in 2016 or in the Sun Belt, where the polling indicates that Joe Biden is potentially making inroads. In four of the states, the margins moved in Biden's direction. But the president importantly had new surveys in Florida and North Carolina that nudged those states toward him. Both remained Biden toss ups however. The Georgia margin did not change and the Peach state is still tilted in the former vice president's direction by the slimmest of margins.

On to the polls... 


Polling Quick Hits:
Florida
(Biden 50, Trump 48)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +3.26]
The YouGov update in the Sunshine state may have bumped the margin there toward Trump, but that did not mean that the president was ahead in either the poll or in the FHQ graduated weighted averages of Florida polls. In this case, it just meant that the margin in the poll favored Biden but by less than his average margin at FHQ. This was the first YouGov survey in the series to include leaners, and while that bolstered both candidates' support, it did not alter the two point advantage Biden had in the last poll in September (or in the baseline with no leaners in this poll). Notably, Florida is another state where the Democratic nominee is closing in on a 50 percent average share of support. And that is borne out in the data. Half of the 28 October Florida surveys have found Biden at or above 50 percent (including this YouGov poll). 


Georgia
(Biden 49, Trump 49)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +0.14]
Across the northern Florida border in Georgia YouGov continued to show a competitive race. Trump's narrow 47-46 edge in the firm's September poll has given way to a tie in October. What is more, leaners were included in this survey as well, but their inclusion did not break the tie in the baseline numbers. But this survey overall is consistent with the 47-47 (rounded) race in the FHQ averages. Yet, Georgia is inching toward Biden. Nine of the 14 October polls have had the former vice president tied or ahead of Trump.


Michigan
(Biden 55, Trump 42)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +7.09]
In the Great Lakes state Gravis Marketing was back in the field for the first time since July. In those three months Trump remained stationary at 42 percent even as Biden was growing his share of support into the mid-50s. The Democratic nominee has yet to hit 50 percent in his average share of support in Michigan, but this poll is among 20 this month (of 28 total) that has had Biden at or above 50 percent. Biden may be gaining on the majority mark in the FHQ averages, but this 55 percent share is well out in front of the averages at the peak of his recent polling there. 


North Carolina
(Biden 51, Trump 47 via YouGov | Trump 49, Biden 46 via Trafalgar Group)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +1.81]
There were two new surveys in the Tar Heel state that told opposing stories. Often when FHQ discusses such a situation, it is a Trafalgar poll on one side providing that counterpoint. Like the other two YouGov surveys on the day, this update in North Carolina also included leaners. And that transition helped the president more compared to the baseline data without leaners. Those leaners, then, were not what fueled the difference between the 48-46 advantage Biden held in September and now. Instead, it was just movement in the former vice president's direction. The opposite was true in the Trafalgar series in North Carolina. The president gained a point since September, but through the Trafalgar lens, the race for the 15 electoral votes at stake in the Old North state continued to be pretty static. But to provide some context on the Trafalgar polls in North Carolina in general, there have been 25 polls conducted in whole or in part in October and 20 of those have found Biden ahead with three more that had the race tied. That leaves just two polls with Trump in the lead there. Unlike the blue wall states, Biden is not closing in on 50 percent in North Carolina, not at the same pace anyway. Still, 11 of 25 October polls have found Biden at or above 50 percent in North Carolina. 


South Dakota
(Trump 51, Biden 40)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +19.31]
This is the first time Mason-Dixon has been in the field in South Dakota in calendar 2020. In fact, this is the first pollster other than Survey Monkey to gauge presidential preference in the Mount Rushmore state all year. This also happens to be the tightest the race has appeared in any 2020 survey of South Dakota. "Tight" is a relative term in this context. An 11 point Trump lead is hardly evidence that South Dakota is going to slip across the partisan line and turn blue, but it is another data point that suggests a sizable swing from the 2016 election to polling in this cycle. Trump won the state by 30 points four years ago, so even if the average swing across the country is closing in on seven points (toward the Democrats) in that time, a 19 point shift is around triple the average swing. Again, Trump will not lose South Dakota but the potential shift there matters. [Please note that there is also a rather large combined chunk of support for other candidates and undecideds in this poll that affects that potential swing as well.]


Texas
(Biden 48, Trump 45)
[Current FHQ margin: Trump +1.39]
On the whole, the UT-Tyler series of surveys in the Lone Star state has indicated a closer race than in 2016, but has mostly favored Trump throughout 2020. But this reversal of the 48-46 Trump advantage in the university pollster's September survey is just the second time a poll in the series has found Biden ahead in Texas. The other was during Biden's peak polling period in June and July. Again, Texas looks a lot like North Carolina but on the Trump side of the partisan line. That is true of the two states' FHQ averages. Both stand at 48-46 (rounded) with Biden ahead in North Carolina and Trump in Texas. The question is whether that will hold. October polling in Texas thus far has been tipped more in Biden's direction. Of the 11 surveys conducted in Texas this month, the Democratic nominee has been tied or had in eight of them. And average margin reflects that. It has tracked downward toward the partisan line, but also toward inclusion on the Watch List below. 


Wisconsin
(Biden 54, Trump 43)
[Current FHQ margin: Biden +6.26]
The final Sunday poll release comes from Gravis Marketing out of Wisconsin. Like the firm's Michigan poll above, the one in the Badger state has Biden running more out ahead of his established FHQ average share of support than the president is his. But this is another one where the president barely budged from the low 40s since the last Gravis poll in Wisconsin in July as Biden saw his support push into the mid-50s.  And also like Michigan, October polling in Wisconsin has been Biden-favorable. 15 of the 21 surveys conducted in the state this month have found the former vice president at or above 50 percent. And with fewer than 10 days until the voting phase of this election concludes, that is not a bad spot to be in for Democrats after they lost the state in 2016 for the first time since 1984.



NOTE: 


The Electoral College Spectrum1
DC-3
VT-3
(6)2
IL-20
(162)
WI-10
(253)
AK-3
(125)
TN-11
(60)
MA-11
(17)
OR-7
(169)
PA-203
(273 | 285)
MO-10
(122)
KY-8
(49)
MD-10
(27)
NJ-14
(183)
NV-6
(279 | 265)
SC -9
(112)
SD-3
(41)
HI-4
(31)
ME-2
(185)
FL-29
(308 | 259)
MT-3
NE CD1-1
(103)
AL-9
(38)
NY-29
(60)
CO-9
(194)
AZ-11
(319 | 230)
KS-6
(99)
ID-4
(29)
CA-55
(115)
VA-13
(207)
NC-15
ME CD2-1
(335 | 219)
NE-2
(93)
AR-6
(25)
DE-3
(118)
NH-4
(211)
GA-16
(351 | 203)
IN-11
(91)
OK-7
(19)
WA-12
(130)
NM-5
(216)
IA-6
(187)
UT-6
(80)
ND-3
(12)
ME CD1-1
CT-7
(138)
MN-10
(226)
OH-18
(181)
MS-6
(74)
WV-5
(9)
RI-4
(142)
NE CD2-1
MI-16
(243)
TX-38
(163)
LA-8
(68)
WY-3
NE CD3-1
(4)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (Biden's toss up states plus the Pennsylvania), he would have 285 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Biden's number is on the left and Trump's is on the right in bold italics.

3 Pennsylvania
 is the state where Biden crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election, the tipping point state. The tipping point cell is shaded in yellow to denote that and the font color is adjusted to attempt to reflect the category in which the state is.

As the race for the White House begins its last full week little changed at FHQ. The map looks just as it did a day ago and so, too, does the Watch List below. Texas may be approaching inclusion on the List, but it is not there yet. On the Electoral College Spectrum, none of the battlegrounds yielded their positions in the order. However, South Dakota did trade slots with Alabama, moving one spot closer in the order to the partisan line. 

9 days to go.


Where things stood at FHQ on October 25 (or close to it) in...
2016
2012
2008


--
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Biden and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State
Potential Switch
Georgia
from Toss Up Biden
to Toss Up Trump
Iowa
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Biden
Nevada
from Toss Up Biden
to Lean Biden
New Hampshire
from Strong Biden
to Lean Biden
New Mexico
from Strong Biden
to Lean Biden
Ohio
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Biden
Pennsylvania
from Lean Biden
to Toss Up Biden
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

--
Methodological Note: In past years, FHQ has tried some different ways of dealing with states with no polls or just one poll in the early rounds of these projections. It does help that the least polled states are often the least competitive. The only shortcoming is that those states may be a little off in the order in the Spectrum. In earlier cycles, a simple average of the state's three previous cycles has been used. But in 2016, FHQ strayed from that and constructed an average swing from 2012 to 2016 that was applied to states. That method, however, did little to prevent anomalies like the Kansas poll that had Clinton ahead from biasing the averages. In 2016, the early average swing in the aggregate was  too small to make much difference anyway. For 2020, FHQ has utilized an average swing among states that were around a little polled state in the rank ordering on election day in 2016. If there is just one poll in Delaware in 2020, for example, then maybe it is reasonable to account for what the comparatively greater amount of polling tells us about the changes in Connecticut, New Jersey and New Mexico. Or perhaps the polling in Iowa, Mississippi and South Carolina so far tells us a bit about what may be happening in Alaska where no public polling has been released. That will hopefully work a bit better than the overall average that may end up a bit more muted.


--
Related posts:




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Tuesday, May 26, 2020

2020 Democratic Delegate Allocation: SOUTH DAKOTA

SOUTH DAKOTA

Election type: primary
Date: June 2
Number of delegates: 21 [4 at-large, 2 PLEOs, 10 congressional district, 5 automatic/superdelegates]
Allocation method: proportional statewide and at the congressional district level
Threshold to qualify for delegates: 15%
2016: proportional primary
Delegate selection plan [includes post-coronavirus plans]


--
Changes since 2016
If one followed the 2016 series on the Republican process here at FHQ, then you may end up somewhat disappointed. The two national parties manage the presidential nomination process differently. The Republican National Committee is much less hands-on in regulating state and state party activity in the delegate selection process than the Democratic National Committee is. That leads to a lot of variation from state to state and from cycle to cycle on the Republican side. Meanwhile, the DNC is much more top down in its approach. Thresholds stay the same. It is a 15 percent barrier that candidates must cross in order to qualify for delegates. That is standard across all states. The allocation of delegates is roughly proportional. Again, that is applied to every state.

That does not mean there are no changes. The calendar has changed as have other facets of the process such as whether a state has a primary or a caucus.

South Dakota returned to its early June primary date for 2000 after three consecutive cycles in February. The presidential nomination contest has remained there ever since. And that includes the 2020 cycle. Not much, then, changed from 2016 to 2020. At least nothing changed with the delegate selection process in South Dakota until the coronavirus intervened in March 2020.

Since South Dakota Democrats have several pre-primary steps involved in their process, given the late date of the primary, the party had to act quickly to move those scheduled in-person events to virtual fora. The primary and indeed the entire timeline of delegate selection remained the same, but all in-person components were moved online.

Another change post-coronavirus was that the South Dakota secretary of state opted in early April to mail out absentee voting applications to all registered South Dakotans. That has been a common response at the heights of election administration in states across the country since March. The one added layer to the South Dakota absentee voting application process is that voters must also show identification in order to receive a ballot. Typically that process has been handled in person at county elections offices. However, that requirement has been relaxed and voters have the option of photocopying their ID and emailing to county auditors after they have mailed in their ballots.

The early voting window opened on April 17 and applications were mailed out in late April and early May, giving South Dakota voters time to complete the process. But those are a lot of steps for elections administrators to complete considering the number of vote-by-mail voters will likely increase as compared to other years.

In-person voting locations will continue to operate for early voting and voting on election day.

All mail-in absentee ballots are due to county election offices on or before 7pm on Tuesday, June 2. 

Overall, the Democratic delegation in South Dakota decreased by four delegates from 2016 to 2020. And the entirety of that loss was felt in the district delegate column. All of the other categories of delegates -- PLEO, at-large and superdelegate -- remained the same in 2020 as they were in 2016.


[Please see below for more on the post-coronavirus changes specifically to the delegate selection process.]


Thresholds
The standard 15 percent qualifying threshold applies both statewide and on the congressional district level.


Delegate allocation (at-large and PLEO delegates)
To win any at-large or PLEO (pledged Party Leader and Elected Officials) delegates a candidate must win 15 percent of the statewide vote. Only the votes of those candidates above the threshold will count for the purposes of the separate allocation of these two pools of delegates.

See New Hampshire synopsis for an example of how the delegate allocation math works for all categories of delegates.


Delegate allocation (congressional district delegates)
South Dakota's 10 congressional district delegates are spread across one at-large congressional district. As such there is no variation across any districts. However, the measure of Democratic strength South Dakota Democrats are using based on the results of the 2016 presidential and 2018 gubernatorial elections in the state is used to determine the number of statewide caucus delegates each of seven regional districts (comprised of five state legislative districts each) receives. Regional caucuses ensure that the slates have representation from multiple areas across the state.

It is that statewide caucus on March 21 that selects slates of delegates for each candidate that will be allocated based on the results of the June 2 primary. In the end the allocation of those 10 "district" delegates will be proportional based on the statewide result. That is the same as it is for the two categories of statewide delegates as described above.



Delegate allocation (automatic delegates/superdelegates)
Superdelegates are free to align with a candidate of their choice at a time of their choosing. While their support may be a signal to voters in their state (if an endorsement is made before voting in that state), superdelegates will only vote on the first ballot at the national convention if half of the total number of delegates -- pledged plus superdelegates -- have been pledged to one candidate. Otherwise, superdelegates are locked out of the voting unless 1) the convention adopts rules that allow them to vote or 2) the voting process extends to a second ballot. But then all delegates, not just superdelegates will be free to vote for any candidate.

[NOTE: All Democratic delegates are pledged and not bound to their candidates. They are to vote in good conscience for the candidate to whom they have been pledged, but technically do not have to. But they tend to because the candidates and their campaigns are involved in vetting and selecting their delegates through the various selection processes on the state level. Well, the good campaigns are anyway.]


Selection
With such a late primary (at least in the context of the original calendar), South Dakota Democrats had already built into their delegate selection process some pre-primary elements. But those components were shifted to remote processes in March. Both the March 14 regional caucuses (seven districts comprised of five state legislative districts each) and the March 21 statewide caucus made up a two-tiered caucus process to select slates of district delegates for each candidate. Following the June 2 primary, the results will determine how many delegates from those slates will fill slots allocated to the candidates.

PLEO and then at-large delegates will be selected at a virtual June 20 state convention. Delegates to that state convention are either state committee members or delegates elected at the county level to attend the state convention.

[The timeline laid out above has not changed. However, all of the in-person meeting from the March 14 regional caucuses to the March 21 statewide caucus to the June 20 state convention were or have been changed to remote meetings since the outbreak of the coronavirus.]


Importantly, if a candidate drops out of the race before the selection of statewide delegates, then any statewide delegates allocated to that candidate will be reallocated to the remaining candidates. If Candidate X is in the race in mid-June when the South Dakota statewide delegate selection takes place but Candidate Y is not, then any statewide delegates allocated to Candidate Y in the early June primary would be reallocated to Candidate X. [This same feature is not something that applies to district delegates.] This reallocation only applies if a candidate has fully dropped out.  This is less likely to be a factor with just Biden left as the only viable candidate in the race, but Sanders could still gain statewide delegates by finishing with more than 15 percent statewide. Under a new deal struck between the Biden and Sanders camps, Biden will be allocated (or reallocated) all of the statewide delegates in a given state. However, during the selection process, the state party will select Sanders-aligned delegate candidates in proportion to the share of the qualified statewide vote.

Tuesday, October 25, 2016

The Electoral College Map (10/25/16)



New State Polls (10/25/16)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Clinton
Trump
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Arizona
10/21-10/24
+/-4.9%
401 likely voters
45
46
3
+1
+1.12
Arkansas
10/21
+/-4.6%
463 likely voters
33
56
5
+23
+18.20
Colorado
10/20-10/22
+/-2.46%
1581 likely voters
45
43
4
+2
+4.19
Florida
10/20-10/22
+/-2.41%
1646 likely voters
46
46
5
+/-0
--
Florida
10/20-10/24
+/-2.8%
1251 likely voters
48
45
0
+3
+2.38
Idaho
10/21-10/23
+/-3.0%
1023 likely voters
23
52
9
+29
+25.16
Indiana
10/22-10/24
+/-2.3%
1596 registered voters
38
49
8
+11
+9.41
Michigan
10/23
+/-2.78%
1241 likely voters
49
41
5
+8
+6.91
Minnesota
10/20-10/22
+/-4.0%
625 likely voters
47
39
6
+8
+6.93
Nevada
10/20-10/22
+/-3.5%
826 likely voters
46
42
4
+4
--
Nevada
10/20-10/22
+/-2.68%
1332 likely voters
44
47
3
+3
--
Nevada
10/20-10/23
+/-3.5%
800 likely voters
48
41
4
+7
+1.24
North Carolina
10/20-10/22
+/-2.33%
1764 likely voters
44
47
5
+3
--
North Carolina
10/20-10/23
+/-3.5%
792 likely voters
46
39
6
+7
+1.61
Ohio
10/20-10/22
+/-2.2%
1971 likely voters
42
46
6
+4
+0.68
Pennsylvania
10/20-10/22
+/-2.19%
1997 likely voters
45
42
7
+3
+5.44
South Dakota
10/18-10/20
+/-5.0%
400 registered voters
37
44
12
+7
+12.12
Virginia
10/20-10/22
+/-2.31%
1787 likely voters
48
43
5
+5
+6.68
Wisconsin
10/20-10/22
+/- 2.31%
1795 registered voters
46
41
6
+5
+6.58


Polling Quick Hits:
Two weeks left.

The day brought with it 19 new survey releases from 15 states from across the Spectrum. Only the Strong Clinton group of states lacked any polls.


Arizona:
Monmouth's first poll in the Grand Canyon state looked a lot more like some of the head-to-head polls there throughout the year with both major party candidates in mid-40s. But this was a multi-way survey. Both have had those surveys with third party candidates included where they have pushed into the mid-40s, but not with any level of consistency (and it has rarely been both simultaneously). The one constant is that the margin is narrow, matching the overall average in the state. Arizona along with Iowa and Ohio are the three closest states at FHQ.


Arkansas:
Being the former first lady in the Natural state does not appear to be paying Clinton any dividends there. Arkansas continues to be in the right most column on the Electoral College Spectrum and the new Hendrix College poll did little to change that picture.


Colorado:
The first of the eight battleground polls from Remington is from Colorado. Generally speaking, this series is a bit more Republican-leaning than most polls in these states have been of late. There have been some close polls in the Centennial state since the first debate, but they have been outnumbered by those finding a wider Clinton advantage. Clinton's lead is only two points, but that did little to shake Colorado's position as the least competitive of the eight FHQ toss up states. It is much closer to being a Lean Clinton state than jumping the partisan line into Trump territory.


Florida:
There just is not a lot of evidence of anything other than a narrow, but durable Clinton lead in Florida.  Things look as they did four years ago in the state, but with Clinton about two points ahead of where Obama was relative to Romney in 2012. The two new polls did not change that.


Idaho:
Without more data, there is nothing yet to suggest that Evan McMullin is replicating his near parity with Trump in Utah polling in Idaho. Trump is still well ahead in the Gem state and the Republican vote there is not split like it is in Utah.


Indiana:
Indiana is like a lot of the lean states on both sides of the partisan line: one candidate is in the mid- to upper 40s while the other is hovering around the 40 percent mark. This Gravis poll fits that pattern. That trend has been more of a barrier to Trump as he has needed at least one Lean Clinton state (and all of the toss ups) to get to 270. While Clinton is in a similar position in Lean Trump states, those have not been necessary to her path to 270.


Michigan:
Trump has gained ground on Clinton in Michigan across the two Mitchell surveys out over the last two weeks. But that is of less consequence when the New York businessman continues to consistently trail there by margins within the lean range.


Minnesota:
Minnesota is a lot like Michigan but less frequently surveyed. And as of now, both are right next to each other in the Spectrum below. Like the description of lean states above, the leader in Minnesota is in the mid-40s and the trailing candidate is around 40 percent.


Nevada:
Remington provides a break in the Clinton run of polling leads in the Silver state since the first debate. But that one Trump lead does little to uproot Nevada's position as a state just slightly tipped toward the former Secretary of State.


North Carolina:
See Nevada. The story is the same in the Tar Heel state with Clinton having established a small but consistent lead since the first debate.


Ohio:
While the first debate can be seen as a turning point in some states -- like Nevada and North Carolina above -- that has not been the case in Ohio. There was a spike in Clinton support, but it was shorter lived. After the second debate -- the town hall and Trump tape -- the polls narrowed in the Buckeye state. The data are not robust in that time, but the established range across the scant polling is roughly tied to Trump +4. That change in trajectory has drawn the average closer here at FHQ, but kept Ohio just on the Clinton side of the partisan line.


Pennsylvania:
The Remington poll in Pennsylvania may be some sign of a change in direction in the Keystone state,  but the evidence since the first debate has been clear enough: Pennsylvania is a Lean Clinton state and one that has moved away from Trump in October. There has not been a poll this close since before the first debate.


South Dakota:
Polling has been light in South Dakota, but what little there has been has the Mount Rushmore state in exactly the same spot on the Electoral College Spectrum that it was in after the election in 2012. It is still a red state.


Virginia:
This Remington poll is a good one for Trump in Virginia. But since the first debate, he has been in the 30s in about three-quarters of the polls since then. That is not a winning position with two weeks to go, especially if Clinton is inching toward the 50 percent mark.


Wisconsin:
Wisconsin is much like its midwestern brethren above. Like Michigan and Minnesota, Trump is stuck around 40 percent and not showing any signs of pushing above that threshold. And with just 14 days until November 8, Clinton does not appear to be coming down to Trump's level in the polls across these states either.


--
Changes (10/25/16)
The day's flood of polling could only be felt here at FHQ on the Electoral College Spectrum. There was some shuffling among the clustered Lean Clinton states with Minnesota most noticeably jumping three spots deeper into the Clinton group of states. Meanwhile, a rare poll from South Dakota also shifted the Mount Rushmore state three positions toward Clinton and the partisan line while remaining in the Strong Trump group of states. Idaho pushed in the opposite direction on the Spectrum, moving toward the very end of the line up against neighboring Wyoming.

Both the map and the Watch List remained unchanged from a day ago.




The Electoral College Spectrum1
MD-102
(13)
RI-4
(162)
PA-20
(263)
MO-10
(126)
TN-11
(61)
HI-4
(17)
NJ-14
(176)
CO-94
(272 | 275)
AK-3
(116)
AR-6
(50)
VT-3
(20)
OR-7
(183)
FL-29
(301 | 266)
SC-9
(113)
ND-3
(44)
CA-55
(75)
NM-5
(188)
NC-15
(316 | 237)
IN-11
(104)
KY-8
(41)
MA-11
(86)
MN-10
(198)
NV-6
(322 | 222)
UT-6
(93)
NE-53
(33)
NY-29
(115)
MI-16
(214)
OH-18
(340 | 216)
MS-6
(87)
AL-9
(28)
IL-20+13
(136)
ME-23
(216)
IA-6
(198)
KS-6
(81)
WV-5
(19)
DE-3
(139)
VA-13
(229)
AZ-11
(192)
SD-3
(75)
OK-7
(14)
CT-7
(146)
WI-10
(239)
GA-16+13
(181)
LA-8
(72)
ID-4
(7)
WA-12
(158)
NH-4
(243)
TX-38
(164)
MT-3
(64)
WY-3
(3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics.
To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College.

3 Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral college votes to candidates in a more proportional manner. The statewide winner receives the two electoral votes apportioned to the state based on the two US Senate seats each state has. Additionally, the winner within a congressional district is awarded one electoral vote. Given current polling, all five Nebraska electoral votes would be allocated to Trump. In Maine, a split seems more likely. Trump leads in Maine's second congressional district while Clinton is ahead statewide and in the first district. She would receive three of the four Maine electoral votes and Trump the remaining electoral vote. Those congressional district votes are added approximately where they would fall in the Spectrum above.

4 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category.



NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.


The Watch List1
State
Switch
Colorado
from Toss Up Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Indiana
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
Mississippi
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Ohio
from Toss Up Clinton
to Toss Up Trump
Oregon
from Lean Clinton
to Strong Clinton
Pennsylvania
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
Utah
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/24/16)

The Electoral College Map (10/23/16)

The Electoral College Map (10/22/16)

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