The Electoral College Map (8/20/08)

Well, things are getting interesting. [Haven't they been all along?] Recent poll movement toward McCain continues with the incorporation of twelve new polls in eleven states. Blue state margins are tightening, especially in states like Iowa and Minnesota and the toss up states have taken on a decidedly McCain tilt of late. Recently, both Colorado and Nevada have moved toward the Arizona senator. Also, after a pro-Obama blip in the polling in Florida, the Sunshine state has returned to polling numbers that reflect the weighted average we have here. Which is to say, a toss up favoring McCain.

New Polls (Aug. 17-20)
State	Poll	Margin (With Leaners/ Without Leaners)
Florida	Rasmussen	+2/+3
Georgia	Rasmussen	+9/+7
Illinois	Rasmussen	+15/+15
Indiana	Survey USA	+6
Iowa	Univ. of Iowa	+5.1/+6.5
Louisiana	Rasmussen	+18/+17
Minnesota	Survey USA	+2
New York	Siena	+8
North Carolina	Civitas	+6
Ohio	Public Policy Polling	0
Ohio	Rasmussen	+5/+4
Pennsylvania	Susquehanna	+5

In Ohio, though, the back and forth continues. The tie in the latest PPP poll and another McCain advantage in this month's Rasmussen poll of the Buckeye state (one that largely mirrors the firm's poll of the state last month), swings Ohio back over to McCain's side. The switch of those 20 electoral votes brings to fruition the closer feeling the race has taken on of late. In fairness, though, I should mention that Ohio reclaimed its position as the closest state in our averages. After yielding the title to Nevada after last week's Rasmussen poll in the Silver state, Ohio not only shifted over to McCain, but did so by the smallest of margins: 0.07 points. Due to the weight being placed on the most recent poll, a subsequent result that favored McCain by less than 1.5 points or a poll favoring Obama would shift the state back to the Illinois senator. Needless to say, Ohio continues to be on the Watch List (below).

[One other note, given the updated discussion yesterday regarding Rasmussen's reporting of both "leaners" numbers and those without leaners: If the without leaners data are used, Obama still leads in Ohio even with this new poll included.]

Changes (Aug. 17-20)
State	Before	After
Ohio	Toss Up Obama	Toss Up McCain

That 20 electoral vote shift now brings the tally in the electoral college to 278-260 in Obama's favor. Despite the shift, the election appears to be hinging on the results in the four closest states in our average: Colorado, Nevada, Ohio and Virginia. But given the current dynamics of the race -- seemingly favoring McCain -- you can begin to envision more of those light blue states being brought more seriously into play. That isn't to say that McCain isn't making efforts in any of those states -- he is -- but they are certainly more attainable if the winds are blowing in his direction. Colorado and Nevada are already marked, but states like Michigan and New Hampshire are also worth increased attention if McCain is pushing into the blue states. I exclude Pennsylvania from that discussion because unlike any of the other toss up states favoring Obama, the Keystone state is actually trending toward Obama. Even the lower margins in the most recent polls of Pennsylvania are running above where the weighted average has the state charted. That being the case, the average typically inches up every time there is a poll that runs above the established average.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

At the same time, if the political winds were to shift [What, two wind references in one post? I know, I have a problem.] back in Obama's direction -- and they are likely to do so at least a little with the Democrats' convention next week -- the current trend could reverse itself. McCain, though, seems to be in a good spot now. Obviously, polling is moving in his direction, but what happens when the dynamics of campaign spending are altered. Seth Masket over at Enik Rising has a post up asking that very same question. McCain's time of spending furiously is almost at its end. Following the GOP convention, the Arizona senator will be party to the spending cap placed on him by the federal matching funds system. Currently, he's spending the uncapped money collected for use prior to the general election campaign. Granted, he'll have some help from the coordinated efforts of the Republican National Committee, but will we see any drop for McCain after his convention (Well, not directly after it, but in the period afterward.)? Put differently, will Obama be able to use his decision to opt out of federal funding to his advantage to regain his footing in the race? That's definitely something to consider (Perhaps for the comments section.).

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4 (7)**	WA-11 (165)	PA-21 (264/295)	FL-27 (369/196)	LA-9 (67)
VT-3 (10)	MN-10 (175)	CO-9*** (273/274)	NC-15 (384/169)	ID-4 (58)
RI-4 (14)	DE-3 (178)	NV-5 (278/265)	SC-8 (154)	NE-5 (54)
MD-10 (24)	OR-7 (185)	OH-20 (298/260)	SD-3 (146)	WY-3 (49)
IL-21 (45)	NJ-15 (200)	VA-13 (311/240)	TX-34 (143)	AR-6 (46)
CT-7 (52)	IA-7 (207)	ND-3 (314/227)	GA-15 (109)	TN-11 (40)
ME-4 (56)	WI-10 (217)	MT-3 (317/224)	MS-6 (94)	KY-8 (29)
NY-31 (87)	NM-5 (222)	IN-11 (328/221)	WV-5 (88)	AL-9 (21)
CA-55 (142)	MI-17 (239/316)	MO-11 (339/210)	AZ-10 (83)	UT-5 (12)
MA-12 (154)	NH-4 (243/299)	AK-3 (342/199)	KS-6 (73)	OK-7 (7)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including New Hampshire (all Obama's toss up states, but Michigan), he would have 299 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That state is referred to as the victory line.

Even with the shift in McCain's direction, the Electoral College Spectrum hasn't changed all that much (nor has the map for that matter). What has happened is that you begin to see the state of play differently. We've moved in short order from talking about how far Obama could potentially push into those pink states to which ones McCain may now be able to pull off. That said, surprisingly tight margins recently in Iowa and Minnesota didn't pull either into the toss up category. And those same four states -- Colorado, Nevada, Ohio and Virginia -- remain the most vital components of either candidate amassing 270 electoral votes. Of course, as Allen -- from Election Projection -- aptly said earlier today, Obama still has more paths to victory. That is certainly true, but if things continue on their current trajectory, that may change as well.

The Watch List*
State	Switch
Alaska	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
Florida	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
Georgia	from McCain lean	to Strong McCain
Mississippi	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Nevada	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
New Mexico	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
North Carolina	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
Ohio	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Virginia	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Washington	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
Wisconsin	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

As for the Watch List, there are a couple of alterations to Sunday's list to note. Minnesota has shifted from being on the list as a state to potenially shift from Strong Obama to an Obama lean to now being completely off the list. However, if you look a the Spectrum above, you'll see that the North Star state has not shifted at all. Truth be told, Minnesota is a victim of the definition of what's included on the Watch. It is no longer within a fraction of a point of switching back to that Strong Obama distinction, but it is within exactly one point of it (...tied with seldom-polled Delaware). Ohio is the only other change. As I mentioned, the Buckeye state remains on the list but is now slated for a potential move toward Obama instead of a move in McCain's direction.

[Note: I purposely avoided the VP topic here. If you'd like to weigh in on the latest speculation, please follow the link to the VP thread immediately below in "Recent Posts". Thanks.]


Recent Posts:
On VP Predictions: Timing and Choices

Is Rasmussen's Inclusion of "Leaners" Affecting the Electoral College Outlook Now? An Update

The New Ohio Poll and McCain's VP Choice

The Electoral College Map (8/17/08)

The latter half of the week closed with just a handful of new polls. That is quite a departure from recent weeks when the bulk of polling releases had been backloaded, occurring between Wednesday and Friday (No, there have not been many polls released over the weekend since primary season ended, and yes, I did put Wednesday's polls in the mid-week update due to the delay caused by my foray into the 2004 data.). Still, even with just six new polls from five states out, there were some shake ups throughout FHQ's various depictions of the race's dynamics.

New Polls (Aug. 14-17)
State	Poll	Margin (With Leaners/ Without Leaners)
Colorado	Rocky Mountain News	+3
Colorado	Rasmussen	+1/+2
Maine	Rasmussen	+14/+13
Minnesota	Rasmussen	+4/+4
North Carolina	Rasmussen	+6/+4
Texas	University of Texas	+10

The first impression is that that is a lot of red. Must be good for McCain, right? Yes, but maybe not for that reason. North Carolina and Texas are a toss up and a lean state, respectively and both continue to hold steady in those positions favoring McCain. The same is true of Maine, though the Pine Tree state is blue, not red. With the new polls in Colorado and Minnesota, though, we see a bit of a divergence from what we have become accustomed to in both. Colorado is beginning to look a lot like Nevada: a western state that remains blue but is trending in McCain's direction. Each have been and continue to be toss up states and the polls in each reflect that. An overwhelming majority of the Colorado polls released since Obama clinched the Democratic nomination have been within the margin of error, but since mid-July half of the six polls have favored McCain. That's departure from the pattern that had dominated before that: close polls favoring Obama. And Minnesota? The North Star state also saw a change from typical polling patten.

Changes (Aug. 14-17)
State	Before	After
Minnesota	Strong Obama	Obama lean

Minnesota becomes the first blue state to move away from Obama into another category since Ohio turned pink based on a Rasmussen poll in late July. But Ohio is a toss up state. We'd expect, to some extent, a toss up state to be more volatile than a state that is either a lean or strong. Minnesota was actually the last such state to move away from Obama all the way back on June 3. [Yeah, the day Obama wrapped up the nomination.] I glanced back through the maps to the point where I adopted the weighted average on April 30, and Minnesota -- a state that has hovered around the line between strong and lead all along -- was the only blue state (lean or strong) to have moved away from Obama in that time. By comparison, McCain has had 6 lean or strong states (Alaska, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, South Dakota and Texas) move away from him since mid-June (not counting the states that shifted in one direction and moved back). Just two of those six (Alaska and South Dakota) have come since mid-July, though.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

So, while some states have shown signs of trending toward McCain of late, that movement has yet to manifest itself in the electoral vote tally. The electoral college still favors Obama by a 298-240 margin. Obama, though, is now 10 electoral votes down in his strong category. The total of Obama strong state electoral votes remains larger than the sum of electoral votes in both McCain's strong states and the states leaning in his direction. That cushion is not as big anymore, though. And while that isn't readily apparent on the map above, we can begin to see it in the Electoral College Spectrum (ECS).

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4 (7)**	WA-11 (165)	PA-21 (264/295)	FL-27 (369/196)	LA-9 (67)
VT-3 (10)	MN-10 (175)	CO-9*** (273/274)	NC-15 (384/169)	ID-4 (58)
RI-4 (14)	DE-3 (178)	OH-20 (293/265)	SC-8 (154)	NE-5 (54)
MD-10 (24)	OR-7 (185)	NV-5 (298/245)	SD-3 (146)	WY-3 (49)
IL-21 (45)	NJ-15 (200)	VA-13 (311/240)	TX-34 (143)	AR-6 (46)
CT-7 (52)	IA-7 (207)	ND-3 (314/227)	GA-15 (109)	TN-11 (40)
NY-31 (83)	WI-10 (217)	IN-11 (325/224)	MS-6 (94)	KY-8 (29)
ME-4 (87)	NM-5 (222)	MT-3 (328/213)	WV-5 (88)	AL-9 (21)
CA-55 (142)	MI-17 (239/316)	MO-11 (339/210)	AZ-10 (83)	UT-5 (12)
MA-12 (154)	NH-4 (243/299)	AK-3 (342/199)	KS-6 (73)	OK-7 (7)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including New Hampshire (all Obama's toss up states, but Michigan), he would have 299 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That state is referred to as the victory line.

Minnesota's shift doesn't look like all that big a deal now. In fact, it hasn't moved at all. The North Star state changed colors but maintained the same position in the ECS. What is different is that, for the first time, a state other than Pennsylvania is in the Victory Line slot. That more accurately reflects what is (and has been) happening in the race. Pennsylvania has been trending toward Obama while Colorado has not. While not necessarily favoring McCain, the margins in the Centennial state have drawn closer to zero. With Colorado and Pennsylvania basically switching places, the result is that Obama's path to 270 is not as clear. If Colorado and Nevada are trending toward McCain (They are both still in blue above the Partisan Line.) that makes Ohio that much more important. If both western states turn pink, Ohio is the state that would put Obama over the top. Without those two western states and Ohio, McCain becomes president. In fact let's look at it this way: if Colorado and Nevada move into McCain's column and Ohio holds its position, the Victory and Partisan line would converge on the Buckeye state's spot in the ECS. In other words, if the election played out that way, we would basically have a replay of the 2004 election. And this election was supposed to be so much different than those before it. It may yet be, but with the way things are shaping up at the moment, we're looking at another close election with the map changing very little.

The Watch List*
State	Switch
Alaska	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
Florida	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
Georgia	from McCain lean	to Strong McCain
Minnesota	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
Mississippi	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Nevada	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
New Mexico	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
North Carolina	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
Ohio	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
Virginia	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Washington	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
Wisconsin	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

So what should we be watching for in the next week? New polling in any of the twelve states above could potentially bring about the changes charted in the Watch List. Minnesota is the only change on the list since Thursday. But that tighter Rasmussen poll didn't shift the state enough to pull it firmly into the lean category. The North Star state continues to oscillate relatively tightly around the line between the lean and strong categories. Finally, even though Colorado jumped both New Hampshire and Pennsylvania in the ECS, the average still isn't close enough to warrant its inclusion on the Watch List. If the Centennial state keeps trending toward McCain, though, it will work its way to that point.


Recent Posts:
Which States are Underpolled in the Presidential Race?

The Electoral College Map (8/14/08)

2008 vs. 2004, Part II: What Happened in the Final 100 Days in 2004 and What That May Mean for the Rest of This Campaign

The Electoral College Map (8/14/08)

The upside to waiting until late in the day to update our electoral college projections is that there is a chance to incorporate all or most of the polls from that day. The downside is that you have to incorporate all those new polls. And when you are already behind adding in the new polls into the existent averages, you make meeting a goal of "I'll have an update up later tonight" that much more difficult to attain. [At least I had that 2004 material up. 2004!?!] Regardless of the timing, there have been 17 new polls released in 14 states since Sunday. Six of those 14 states are toss ups by FHQ's measure and one more state moved into that category with the addition of new polling.

New Polls (Aug. 10-13)
State	Poll	Margin (With Leaners/ Without Leaners)
Alaska	Moore	+3
Alaska	Hays	+5
Colorado	Public Policy Polling	+4
Florida	Insider Advantage	+4
Iowa	Rasmussen	+5/+5
Kansas	Rasmussen	+14/+15
Kentucky	Survey USA	+18
Nevada	Rasmussen	+3/+3
New Jersey	Quinnipiac	+10
North Carolina	Survey USA	+4
Oregon	Rasmussen	+10/+10
Pennsylvania	Franklin & Marshall	+8 /+5 (reg.)/(likely)
Virginia	Insider Advantage	0
Virginia	Rasmussen	+1/+1
Virginia	Survey USA	+1
Washington	Survey USA	+7
Wisconsin	Strategic Vision	+5

That should serve as a hint that, surprisingly, it was not Nevada that moved over to McCain as a result of the Rasmussen poll that gave the Arizona senator a slight lead in the Silver state. And hey, it was less than 24 hours ago that I lamented the fact that Nevada had not been polled in almost a month. I still think that Nevada has been under-polled given how close it appears. Let's sink some of the resources that have been sunk into (over-)surveying New York and put that into Nevada. The Empire state ain't movin' folks. I expect it to be an easy win for Obama on November 4. Nevada, however, is a close state. By our measure, it is now the closest state, surpassing Ohio to claim that distinction. But I'll save that discussion for when we get to the Electoral College Spectrum below.

Changes (Aug. 10-13)
State	Before	After
Alaska	McCain lean	Toss Up McCain

With that small rant over, let's shift the focus to Alaska. The Last Frontier (I'm not a Star Trek fan, but I have to fight my subconscious every time I type that. Alaska is not, in fact, the Final Frontier.) on the weight of two new polls moves into the toss up category. That Ivan Moore poll from late July slipped under the radar somehow, but at least I wasn't the only one to miss it. Of course Nate Silver is reporting that poll as having a 2.4 point margin. His link to the poll is dead now and everyone else seems to be reporting it as a 3 point margin. Pushing that point aside for the moment, Alaska is now close enough to be considered a toss up. Yikes if you're McCain. This is a state that Bush won by 25 points in 2004. That's over 20 points that Alaska as slid since November 2004. Now, just to be clear, Alaska still favors McCain but has inched closer to Obama based on these two polls. Bush's approval (of lack thereof) and the Stevens' indictment have put a distinct blemish on the Republican brand in the state and that has translated into the presidential trial heats drawing closer together. [Just for the sake of transparency -- or at least accurate reporting -- I should note that the Moore poll was released a full week before that indictment was handed down.]

[Click Map to Enlarge]

Alaska moved and Nevada didn't, so the shift I expected when I saw the new Silver state poll (but before I imputed it into the state's weighted average) didn't actually happen. As a result the electoral vote tallies for each candidate remain unchanged. McCain, though, loses three more electoral votes from the lean plus strong state total that is, by our estimation, safer for the moment. That total comes to 154 electoral votes for McCain which is over twenty electoral votes fewer now than what Obama has in just his strong category (175 EVs). And that brings into even starker contrast the difference between where McCain-Obama stand in regard to the Electoral College Spectrum (ECS) and where Bush and Kerry were four years ago at this time. The intensity of support for Bush has certainly given way to a far different picture for the Republican standard bearer in 2008. If Obama can force McCain to play defense in those eight states (86 EVs), McCain will be at a distinct disadvantage as we near the heart of this campaign. I have no idea what Obama's schedule is coming off his vacation -- he does have a running mate to name -- but would a quick trip to Alaska be that out of the way? That sort of move could turn 5 point poll leads in the state into more than just an outlier. Granted, driving back from my own vacation in late July, I saw a truck with Alaska tags that sported a "NObama!" bumper sticker. That isn't representative of the entire state but I'm willing to err on the side of caution and give the GOP some credit in a state that has only voted for a Democratic presidential candidate once in its history (LBJ in 1964).

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4 (7)**	WA-11 (165)	NH-4 (252/290)	NC-15 (357/196)	LA-9 (67)
VT-3 (10)	MN-10 (175)	PA-21*** (273/286)	FL-27 (384/181)	ID-4 (58)
RI-4 (14)	DE-3 (178)	OH-20 (293/265)	SC-8 (154)	NE-5 (54)
MD-10 (24)	OR-7 (185)	NV-5 (298/245)	SD-3 (146)	WY-3 (49)
IL-21 (45)	NJ-15 (200)	VA-13 (311/240)	TX-34 (143)	AR-6 (46)
CT-7 (52)	IA-7 (207)	ND-3 (314/227)	GA-15 (109)	TN-11 (40)
NY-31 (83)	WI-10 (217)	IN-11 (325/224)	MS-6 (94)	KY-8 (29)
CA-55 (138)	NM-5 (222)	MT-3 (328/213)	WV-5 (88)	AL-9 (21)
ME-4 (142)	MI-17 (239/316)	MO-11 (339/210)	AZ-10 (83)	UT-5 (12)
MA-12 (154)	CO-9 (248/299)	AK-3 (342/199)	KS-6 (73)	OK-7 (7)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Obama's toss up states, but Michigan), he would have 299 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***Pennsylvania is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That state is referred to as the victory line.

Alaska jumps both Florida and North Carolina on the ECS in the process of becoming a toss up, but with so many new polls being released there were a few shake ups, though, nothing major. Nevada is so close to being a tie now that it jumped Ohio, becoming the least blue state. Those two, along with Virginia are the most closely contested states at this point according to our weighted averages. And even with three polls, Virginia held steady; now firmly within the area that would put the state on the Watch List. Outside of that Pennsylvania is the only other state of note. The Keystone state nearly ceded its position as the Victory Line to New Hampshire. The two are separated by only two one-hundredths of a point. However, I should add one caveat since Pennsylvania is part of the discussion. Franklin and Marshall reported both their likely voter numbers and registered voter numbers in their Pennsylvania poll. Most are reporting that poll as a 5 point Obama advantage, but FiveThirtyEight has decided to use the registered voter numbers and is reporting the 8 point margin among that sample group. Here's the thing: I don't particularly want to wade into this debate here, but I will be open about how each of those results affects the average. With the likely voters 5 point margin, Pennsylvania is not as close to New Hampshire's average (two tenths of a point instead of two one-hundredths), but the 8 point, registered voter margin pushes the commonwealth's average right up against the Granite state's.

The Watch List*
State	Switch
Alaska	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
Florida	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
Georgia	from McCain lean	to Strong McCain
Minnesota	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
Mississippi	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Nevada	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
New Mexico	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
North Carolina	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
Ohio	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
Virginia	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Washington	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
Wisconsin	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Pennsylvania, though, is comfortably within the range of toss up states, but it is trending away from the Partisan line and thus not close enough to be included on the Watch List. The states most likely shift to categories (or across partisan distinctions) have added two states since Sunday. Alaska's new polls put the state on the Watch, but only barely so. Actually, Alaska's presence on the list depends on whether you use the 3 point margin in the Moore poll or the 2.4 point margin (mentioned above) that Nate Silver has reported. The 2.4 point margin would lower the average enough to pull Alaska off the list entirely. As it is, with the three point margin, the Last Frontier is right on the line between categories. Wisconsin slips on to the Watch as well. That five point Obama advantage in the latest Strategic Vision poll out of the Badger state continues a pattern of tighter, yet comfortably Obama, polls. Wisconsin has hovered around the line between lean and toss up for most of this cycle, so this isn't a shock. The state is getting tighter though.

At some point I'd like to address how wide the gaps are between some of these categories, but that point isn't today. Since I've brought in the Wednesday polls to this update, I may have created less work for myself on the weekend update. If that proves to be true I'll make some statements about those spreads then. It would certainly help our understanding of both the Electoral College Spectrum and the Watch List.


Recent Posts:
2008 vs. 2004, Part II: What Happened in the Final 100 Days in 2004 and What That May Mean for the Rest of This Campaign

2008 vs. 2004, Part I: What Things Would Have Looked Like 4 Years Ago This Time

The Electoral College Spectrum

The Electoral College Map (8/10/08)

After this past week's look into the hypothetical, let's return to the non-truncated version of state trial-heat polls data and glance at the electoral college outlook. Despite eleven new polls out in 9 states, little changed in FHQ's projections of how the electoral college would breakdown.

New Polls (Aug. 6-9)
State	Poll	Margin (With Leaners/ Without Leaners)
Alabama	Capital Survey Research Center	+13
Massachusetts	Rasmussen	+16/+15
Michigan	Rasmussen	+4/+7
Missouri	Rasmussen	+6/+7
New Jersey	Rasmussen	+10/+8
New York	Quinnipiac	+21
New York	Rasmussen	+19/+20
Oregon	Survey USA	+3
Washington	Rasmussen	+12/+12
Wisconsin	Rasmussen	+7/+4
Wisconsin	Wisconsin Policy Research Institute	+6

It is difficult to say definitively whether this set of polling is more favorable to McCain or Obama, but what we can discern is that, on the whole, they maintain the status quo in FHQ's weighted averages. If, for the sake of parsimony, we focus on this data and count the Rasmussen polls "with leaners," none of these state polls break more than three points from our average with the exceptions of Alabama and Oregon. It is odd though that both polls echo the previous polls in those states by the same firms. Capital Survey Research Center's late June poll in Alabama showed the same 13 point McCain advantage that it does now. Likewise, the Oregon poll from Survey USA has the exact same 3 point Obama edge that the firm's mid-June poll in the Beaver state had. In both cases the polls show significantly smaller margins than the combination of other polls show. Other than the Zogby poll in June (11 point McCain lead) and the June poll from Rasmussen, no Alabama poll has had a margin less than 18 points since February. In Oregon, no poll other than Survey USA has shown the state to be any closer than eight points since late March. These two polls then are out of the ordinary compared to most of the other polls from both states while at the same time being consistent with past polls conducted within the last two months in these states by the same firms.

Of the remaining states where polling data has been released since Wednesday, Michigan and Missouri are also of note given that the pair of states is within the toss up category. In Missouri, the polling results have been erratic since mid-May, but still comes out closer to McCain than Obama currently. Of the ten polls since that point, six have favored McCain and the other four have given the edge to Obama. May is also the month to note in Michigan polling as well. The three polls released in the Wolverine state in May all showed McCain ahead by small margins. Once the calendar turned to June (and Obama claimed the Democratic nomination), the polling margins moved in Obama's direction. The Illinois senator's bounce there peaked in late June and early July before a series of polls showed a tighter race there (yet one that still favors Obama). Incidentally, Michigan has been blue since just after Obama wrapped up the nomination. Based mostly on those May polls showing McCain ahead, Michigan had moved into and stayed in the red (during the span of FHQ electoral college projections from April 30 through June 11). Long story short, Michigan is a toss up state that favors Obama while Missouri is a toss up state that favors McCain.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

With no changes to the map, the underlying 298-240 electoral college tally remains static. Obama maintains that 58 electoral vote advantage based in large part on the number of electoral votes in states in which he holds a solid advantage over McCain. As I mentioned in the hypothetical look at what our averages would be by including just polls conducted since June, this is not unlike the delegate advantage that Obama held over Clinton following his post-Super Tuesday sweep of contests during February. That provided him with the cushion necessary to effectively win the nomination. Are we looking at a similar scenario here? We cannot definitively say, but that 81 electoral vote advantage in "strong" states is the difference at the moment. How the toss up states break will have a great deal to say about who ultimately wins this election, but if those states are divided approximately evenly between both McCain and Obama, then it looks as if Obama will likly have enough electoral votes to claim victory.

The Electoral College Spectrum
HI-4	WA-11	NH-4	FL-27	KS-6
VT-3	MN-10	PA-21*	AK-3	ID-4
RI-4	DE-3	NV-5	SC-8	NE-5
MD-10	NJ-15	OH-20	SD-3	WY-3
IL-21	OR-7	VA-13	TX-34	AR-6
CT-7	IA-7	ND-3	GA-15	TN-11
NY-31	WI-10	IN-11	MS-6	KY-8
CA-55	NM-5	MT-3	WV-5	AL-9
ME-4	MI-17	MO-11	AZ-10	UT-5
MA-12	CO-9	NC-15	LA-9	OK-7
* Pennsylvania is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That state is referred to as the victory line.

Having said that, though, our Electoral College Spectrum (states ranked from most pro-Obama to most pro-McCain) still shows a two state spread between the partisan line and the victory line (where the candidates pass or would pass the 270 electoral vote threshold) with the latter just within the blue states that signify Obama advantages. McCain, given the current FHQ averages, has the least amount of work to do in Ohio and Nevada to swing those states in his direction. Given the current trends, Colorado and/or Michigan are likely to supplant Pennsylvania as the victory line state. Since June, only Rasmussen has shown anything less than a 7 point margin in the Keystone state, while Colorado and Michigan have had, on average, tighter margins during the same period. Regardless of the victory line, McCain's best bets for switches are the six toss up states in light blue.

The Watch List*
State	Switch
Florida	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
Georgia	from McCain lean	to Strong McCain
Minnesota	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
Mississippi	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Nevada	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
New Mexico	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
North Carolina	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
Ohio	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
Virginia	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Washington	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Turning our attention the the Watch List (states most likely to switch categories), Nevada and Ohio remain the only two states among those six that are at all close to moving into the red. And while McCain can play offense in those two states, the Arizona senator likely has to play defense in Virginia to prevent Obama from picking off the Old Dominion. Of the remaining states on the list, only Florida and New Mexico are bordering on coming into play.

One thing to keep an eye on as we head into the new week is how the Olympics will affect the frequency of polling. Will the polling firms opt to scale back their polling operations while at least some of America's (a majority?) attention is shifted to the games in Beijing? We've had bursts of polling recently, but there still appears to be a general underlying trend of about 20 polls every week. If there is a drop below that line over the course of the next two weeks, we'll likely have an easy answer to this question. If there isn't a drop, good for us. More polls.


Recent Posts:
On VP Announcement Timing and Graphic Naming -- Some Housekeeping

What Would Happen If...

The Electoral College Map (8/6/08)

The Electoral College Map (8/6/08)

The latter half of the week has been the time for releasing polling recently. That has made the last two Wednesday electoral college posts pretty skimpy though. Still, there were 9 new polls out in 7 states since Sunday. Of those seven states, four were already McCain states that became even more so with the addition of these polls. Arizona had been drifting away from its home state senator and nearly into "McCain lean" territory, but two new polls there provided him with some added cushion that moved the state more firmly into the red.

New Polls (Aug. 3-6)
State	Poll	Margin (With Leaners/ Without Leaners)
Alabama	Rasmussen	+20/+18
Arizona	Rasmussen	+19/+16
Arizona	Public Policy Polling	+12
Connecticut	Rasmussen	+13/+15
Florida	Public Policy Polling	+3
Florida	Survey USA	+6
Massachusetts	Suffolk	+9
Oklahoma	Oklahoma Poll	+32
Washington	Elway	+12

Florida, after moving toward Obama in recent polling has shown a resurgence of support for McCain since August began. The Sunshine state is still considered a toss up here even when those August polls are included. However, only one out of four Florida polls in July favored McCain, but the two polls out so far this month have favored McCain.

In the blue states where new polling results were released, the news was mixed. Connecticut and Washington are still comfortably blue for Obama. Massachusetts is still a solid Obama state as well, but a single digit lead in the latest Suffolk poll (down 14 points since the firm last polled the Bay state in late June) was an eye-opening result out of a states that is a typically dependable Democratic state. FHQ sees Massachusetts similar to the way it viewed Arizona when it was on the Watch List (see below). It may be trending in a direction contrary to where you might expect, given the circumstances, but ultimately voters will pull the lever for the candidate of the party they have supported in recent cycles.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

Despite the new polling, though, nothing changed as far as the outlook in the electoral college is concerned. Obama maintains 298-240 electoral vote advantage. Things did change in the rankings though. Pennsylvania remains the breaking point where each candidate passes (or would pass) the 270 electoral vote total necessary to claim the White House, but the states where polling has been released since Sunday generally moved in McCain's direction. Oklahoma suplants Utah as the reddest state and the remaining red states moved further into the red as well. Of the three blue states represented, Connecticut held its position while Massachusetts and Washington switched places. So, even though there was movement toward McCain, it didn't particularly help in terms of shifting any "blue state" electoral votes his way. In the case of Florida, though, the good news for McCain is that while it is still a toss up, it is now moving in his direction at least. That is a valuable 27 electoral votes the Arizona senator likely would not want to relinquish.

The Electoral College State Rankings
HI-4	MA-12	NH-4	FL-27	KS-6
VT-3	MN-10	PA-21*	AK-3	ID-4
RI-4	DE-3	NV-5	SC-8	NE-5
MD-10	OR-7	OH-20	SD-3	WY-3
IL-21	NJ-15	VA-13	TX-34	AR-6
CT-7	IA-7	ND-3	GA-15	TN-11
NY-31	WI-10	IN-11	MS-6	KY-8
CA-55	NM-5	MT-3	WV-5	AL-9
ME-4	MI-17	MO-11	AZ-10	UT-5
WA-11	CO-9	NC-15	LA-9	OK-7
* Pennsylvania is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election.

The new polling out of Arizona pulls the Grand Canyon state off the Watch List, and was replaced by the addition of Florida and Massachusetts. McCain likely will not win Massachusetts (and I doubt he is putting much effort in in the Bay state), but protecting his position relative to Obama in Florida is an important piece of his electoral college equation. On that, Florida's reappearance on the Watch List (as potentially shifting from a toss up favoring McCain to a more comfortable McCain lean) is certainly welcome news.

The Watch List*
State	Switch
Florida	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
Georgia	from McCain lean	to Strong McCain
Massachusetts	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
Minnesota	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
Mississippi	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Nevada	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
New Mexico	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
North Carolina	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
Ohio	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
Virginia	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Washington	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Recent Posts:
Did Obama or McCain Win July?

About Those Rules: What Obama's New Florida/Michigan Stance Means for 2012 and Beyond

The Electoral College Map (8/3/08)