Saturday, August 7, 2010

RNC Finalizes Primary Schedule Rules for 2012

Ballot Access News has the highlights and FHQ will have a broad overview either Sunday night or Monday morning.

BAN seems to think that state legislatures will fall in line next year and pass laws complying with both parties' rules since they largely coincide now. Richard Winger used the word "likely" to describe state legislative action. FHQ is and has always been of the opinion that overlapping rules between the parties is a good first step in that direction, but passing election law modifications is far from a certainty. As I have maintained, all it takes is one state to derail the best of intentions. And the parties should be commended for working together. It was a necessary and sensible move.


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Saturday, July 31, 2010

Obama v. Pawlenty (2012 Trial Heats, July '10)

[Click to Enlarge]

The next series of updates are for candidates with only three polls (or less) conducted in hypothetical 2012 general election match ups against President Obama. As such, the trend analyses for Tim Pawlenty, Ron Paul and Jeb Bush are more susceptible to wild fluctuations given the relatively scant level of data available compared to the four candidates (Gingrich, Huckabee, Palin and Romney) covered thus far. These are clearly cases where other variables -- presidential approval and state of the economy -- may be helpful in balancing out polls like the Politico internet poll. In the midst of many other polls, that survey merely appears as an outlier. It is still an outlier for a candidate with just a few polls against Obama, but in such a case, it serves as a distinct statistical anchor. In such cases, the straight average "feels" more trustworthy for the three candidates with more than one survey conducted against Obama.

That is true for Tim Pawlenty. The Politico survey underestimates both Obama's and Pawlenty's shares of poll respondents given the other data available. It is difficult to fathom, for instance, either Obama below 40% support or Pawlenty, despite a lack of national name recognition, mustering just more than 20% support. Now, to be completely honest, a simple average is just as susceptible to outliers, but the numbers for Obama are much closer to the range in which they lie against the Big Four prospective Republican candidates. Similarly, Pawlenty's numbers, while still low, are at least closer the level of support an unknown, yet named, Republican candidate.

More than anything, this may have been what spurred Pawlenty and his inner circle to produce and release the video FHQ mentioned on Thursday. The timing was a bit abnormal, but the intent is clear, despite nary a mention of a presidential race or 2012. And hopefully, it will serve as an impetus for other polling outlets to include Pawlenty in future surveys. Political junkies thinking of 2012 can hope so at least. Trips to Iowa certainly aren't hurting those chances either.

2012 Presidential Trial Heat Polling (Obama v. Pawlenty)
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
ObamaPawlentyUndecided
Politico [Internet]
July 9-14, 2010
+/- 3.1%
1011 likely voters
392140
Public Policy Polling
Dec. 4-7, 2009
+/- 2.8%
1253 likely voters
483517
Public Policy Polling
Oct. 16-19, 2009
+/- 3.5%
766 likely voters
5030
20
Average


45.6728.67
--
Regression Average


38.320.99--


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Thursday, July 29, 2010

And they're off!!! Next Stop 2012.

FHQ has often said of the 2012 Republican presidential nomination aspirants that they are running for 2012, but have simultaneously wondered if some or all would actually be running in 2012. Well, Tim Pawlenty has turned whispers and political junkie wonderings into an overt running for 2012 with his new Freedom First PAC video.



We often talk around these parts about the frontloading of presidential primaries and caucuses, but the candidates do it too. I can't think of anything happening earlier in a given presidential cycle since Michigan and Arizona held first step caucuses in 1986 with 1988's GOP nomination in mind. This pre-dates even those moves. Look, neither Pawlenty nor the video say anything about 2012. However, this is an introduction. This is an action taken with something higher than merely fundraising for congressional and gubernatorial candidates as impetus. Normally, I'd shrug something like this off; especially given that it is happening during the usually (media) dead months of summer. This is the time of Gary Condit and shark attacks, not subtle presidential introductions. Yet, this is clever. It has been timed to make a splash but to do so so as to not overlap with the most intense part of the midterm election campaign. It is also timed to get someone who had less name recognition than the balloon boy to get his name out there before an actual announcement that could get lost amongst the bigger names early next year when the expected announcements will likely come.

There's a long way to go until 2012, and this may all be for naught. At the very least, though, it has given those of us who follow such things, something to talk about.

Speaking of Pawlenty, FHQ will have a 2012 trial heat poll update for him later.


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Obama v. Gingrich (2012 Trial Heats, July '10)

[Click to Enlarge]

And Newt Gingrich?

The last of the Big Four routinely brought up the rear in terms of performance against Obama relative to the other three (Huckabee, Palin and Romney) during 2009. So far behind did the former speaker lag that Public Policy Polling dropped him from consideration. However, the Georgian did so well in some of the surveys of early primary/caucus states that they brought him back in 2010.

Not unlike the other three, Gingrich has seen President Obama's support dry up in these monthly glimpses into the state of the 2012 race. But it isn't all about Obama trailing off; Gingrich has crept up as well. His polling average is right on 40%, but his time-adjusted estimate brings the former speaker closer to Obama. Gingrich does not fare as well as Huckabee or Romney, but bests Palin against Obama. He settles in just in between both extremes. What is lacking on Gingrich is that there are fewer polls and that PPP surveys make up three-quarters of the data on him. Now, to be fair, PPP makes up the majority of all the candidates' data, but some more variation would likely be helpful. As with the other candidates*, most of the non-PPP polls show Obama with a larger lead. Rasmussen is the exception. But Rasmussen has not asked the Gingrich question yet. Perhaps that will change as we near 2011 and the time when presidential announcements begin to be made.

2012 Presidential Trial Heat Polling (Obama v. Gingrich)
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
ObamaGingrichUndecided
Public Policy Polling
July 9-12, 2010
+/- 3.8%
667 likely voters
45
46
9
Public Policy Polling
June 4-7, 2010
+/- 3.8%
650 likely voters
473914
Public Policy Polling
May 7-9, 2010+/- %
707 likely voters
49429
Public Policy Polling
April 9-11, 2010+/- 3.9%
622 likely voters
45
45
10
CNN
April 9-11, 2010
+/- 3.5%
907 reg. voters
5543--
Clarus Research
March 17-20, 2010
+/- 3%
1050 reg. voters
483616
Clarus Research
Aug. 14-18, 2009
+/- 3.1%
1003 voters
523415
Public Policy Polling
Aug. 14-17, 2009
+/- 3.3%
909 likely voters
494110
Public Policy Polling
July 15-16, 2009
+/- 4.1%
577 likely voters
5042
9
Public Policy Polling
June 12-16, 2009
+/- 3.9%
638 likely voters
494110
Public Policy Polling
May 14-18, 2009
+/- 3.1%
1000 likely voters
533611
Public Policy Polling
April 17-19, 2009
+/- 3.7%
686 likely voters
52399
Average


49.4540.00
--
Regression Average


46.8242.24--

*This seems to hurt Palin the most. She is the candidate most often polled against Obama by other polling firms.

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Wednesday, July 28, 2010

Obama v. Romney (2012 Trial Heats, July '10)

[Click to Enlarge]

Among the four candidate who are surveyed most frequently in hypothetical 2012 general election match ups against President Obama, Mitt Romney does the best. [Yes, that spoils the Gingrich results on some level, but so be it.] The former Massachusetts governor's numbers are on par with Mike Huckabee's as measured by both the straight average of polls conducted and the regression trend estimate, but Romney actually leads Obama in the latter -- the only candidate to do so. While Romney tended to keep Obama's level of support at low levels as compared to most of the other Republicans polled, the 2008 presidential candidate also failed to muster much support of his own during the first half on 2009. Since July of last year, though, Romney has fared far better against Obama compared to the other Republicans across a variety of polling houses.

That consistency across polls has boosted Romney, whereas his closest competitor -- at least by our measure -- Mike Huckabee has been very consistent in the Public Policy Polling surveys while lagging in other polls. Again, that speaks toward Romney's inching upward more than it speaks to Huckabee falling. For all intents and purposes, the two hold a very similar position in relation to Obama in a potential general election race. Romney has some establishment support within the Republican Party, perhaps even similar to what McCain enjoyed in 2008. However, Romney looked good heading into the 2008 primary season too only to fall by the wayside once McCain was able to string together victories in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida heading into the pivotal Super Tuesday states. He will have to show a lot of establishment support if he wants to avoid that fate again.

2012 Presidential Trial Heat Polling (Obama v. Romney)
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
ObamaRomneyUndecided
Politico [Internet]
July 9-14, 2010
+/- 3.1%
1011 likely voters
393526
Public Policy Polling
July 9-12, 2010
+/- 3.8%
667 likely voters
43
46
11
Public Policy Polling
June 4-7, 2010
+/- 3.8%
650 likely voters
4542
13
Public Policy Polling
May 7-9, 2010+/- %
707 likely voters
464411
Public Policy Polling
April 9-11, 2010+/- 3.9%
622 likely voters
44
45
10
CNN
April 9-11, 2010
+/- 3.5%
907 reg. voters
5345--
Clarus Research
March 17-20, 2010
+/- 3%
1050 reg. voters
454114
Public Policy Polling
March 12-14, 2010
+/- 2.6%
1403 likely voters
44
44
12
Harris [Internet]
March 10-12, 2010
+/- --%
2344 adults
463915
Public Policy Polling
Feb. 13-15, 2010
+/- 3.5%
743 likely voters
4543
12
Public Policy Polling
Jan. 18-19, 2010
+/- 2.8%
1151 likely voters
44
42
15
Public Policy Polling
Dec. 4-7, 2009
+/- 2.8%
1253 likely voters
474212
Rasmussen
Nov. 24, 2009
+/- 3.5%
800 likely voters
44
44
5
Public Policy Polling
Nov. 13-15, 2009
+/- 3%
1066 likely voters
4843
9
Public Policy Polling
Oct. 16-19, 2009
+/- 3.5%
766 likely voters
4840
12
Public Policy Polling
Sept. 18-21, 2009
+/- 3.9%
621 likely voters
483913
Clarus Research
Aug. 14-18, 2009
+/- 3.1%
1003 voters
473815
Public Policy Polling
Aug. 14-17, 2009
+/- 3.3%
909 likely voters
474012
Rasmussen
July 16-17, 2009
+/- 3%
1000 likely voters
45
45
3
Public Policy Polling
July 15-16, 2009
+/- 4.1%
577 likely voters
4940
11
Public Policy Polling
June 12-16, 2009
+/- 3.9%
638 likely voters
484012
Public Policy Polling
May 14-18, 2009
+/- 3.1%
1000 likely voters
533512
Public Policy Polling
April 17-19, 2009
+/- 3.7%
686 likely voters
503911
Average


46.341.18
--
Regression Average


42.9743.04--


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Romney still ahead in New Hampshire (2012) -- July 2010

No surprises here:

Romney: 31%
Gingrich: 14%
Paul: 13%
Huckabee: 12%
Palin: 9%
Pawlenty: 3%
Daniels: 1%

Someone else: 5%
Undecided: 11%

Sample: 415 Republican voters
Margin of Error: +/- 4.81%
Conducted: July 23-25, 2010

I won't dwell on these results. More than anything, they simply maintain the status quo: Romney looks good in New Hampshire. Ho hum. However, I will add one note of caution. This was a survey of Republican voters in the Granite state. It does not in any way account for the mass of independents that will surely participate in the Republican primary with Democrats idle in 2012. The argument could be made that Romney would benefit even more from the inclusion of independents. Yet, New Hampshire primary voters have been known to be, oh, I don't want to say quirky, but willing to take a flyer on someone other than the frontrunner. While there is no definitive frontrunner for the Republican nomination at this point, Romney is the New Hampshire frontrunner and that gains him some points in laying claim to that tag at the national level.

Speaking of Romney, FHQ will have an update -- with graphics -- of his trial heat numbers against Obama later today.


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Tuesday, July 27, 2010

Obama v. Huckabee (2012 Trial Heats, July '10)


[Click to Enlarge]

On to Mike Huckabee.

How does the former Arkansas governor and 2008 presidential candidate fare against Obama? We are far removed from concerns over gubernatorial commutations of late 2009, but less distance is between those following the prospective 2012 race and talk of Huckabee sitting it out. Indeed, Huckabee has recently reminded those following the 2012 frivolities from this great distance that he does quite well in polls against the president in those hypothetical match ups. There is truth to that notion. The 2008 GOP nomination runner up has consistently been the best positioned Republican in most polls that survey him alongside Palin and Romney (and less frequently Gingrich) against Obama, yet one doesn't get the feeling that the elites within the Republican Party are all that enamored of Huckabee much less his chances for the nomination in 2012 or the general election against Obama. [In fact, Romney, among those named as 2012 possibilities, most strongly holds that distinction.]

Here, though, is Huckabee very closely matched against Obama in polls in 2009 and 2010. If you scroll below to the time series regression, it is evidence of a trend toward parity among the two men in a future race. Still, very much like Obama in 2006-2007, Huckabee is in the position of needing early primary/caucus wins in 2012 to legitimately enter the discussion. The establishment is not behind him like Romney, nor is there as much grassroots passion behind him as Palin commands. That is not a good combination despite good numbers. Unlike Romney, Huckabee cannot lean on the "I'm the better general election candidate" if it is a Palin-Huckabee argument. He doesn't have either of the establishment or grassroots pieces of the nomination puzzle. The former governor has to hope to catch lightning in a bottle again and win Iowa to force the issue.


2012 Presidential Trial Heat Polling (Obama v. Huckabee)
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
ObamaHuckabeeUndecided
Politico [Internet]
July 9-14, 2010
+/- 3.1%
1011 likely voters
393525
Public Policy Polling
July 9-12, 2010
+/- 3.8%
667 likely voters
45
47
8
Public Policy Polling
June 4-7, 2010
+/- 3.8%
650 likely voters
4644
10
Public Policy Polling
May 7-9, 2010+/- %
707 likely voters
46458
Public Policy Polling
April 9-11, 2010+/- 3.9%
622 likely voters
45
47
9
CNN
April 9-11, 2010
+/- 3.5%
907 reg. voters
5445--
Clarus Research
March 17-20, 2010
+/- 3%
1050 reg. voters
473914
Public Policy Polling
March 12-14, 2010
+/- 2.6%
1403 likely voters
46
44
10
Public Policy Polling
Feb. 13-15, 2010
+/- 3.5%
743 likely voters
4643
11
Public Policy Polling
Jan. 18-19, 2010
+/- 2.8%
1151 likely voters
44
45
11
Public Policy Polling
Dec. 4-7, 2009
+/- 2.8%
1253 likely voters
50446
Rasmussen
Nov. 24, 2009
+/- 3.5%
800 likely voters
45
41
8
Public Policy Polling
Nov. 13-15, 2009
+/- 3%
1066 likely voters
4944
7
Public Policy Polling
Oct. 16-19, 2009
+/- 3.5%
766 likely voters
4743
10
Public Policy Polling
Sept. 18-21, 2009
+/- 3.9%
621 likely voters
484111
Clarus Research
Aug. 14-18, 2009
+/- 3.1%
1003 voters
483815
Public Policy Polling
Aug. 14-17, 2009
+/- 3.3%
909 likely voters
474410
Public Policy Polling
July 15-16, 2009
+/- 4.1%
577 likely voters
484210
Public Policy Polling
June 12-16, 2009
+/- 3.9%
638 likely voters
50438
Public Policy Polling
May 14-18, 2009
+/- 3.1%
1000 likely voters
52399
Public Policy Polling
April 17-19, 2009
+/- 3.7%
686 likely voters
49429
Average


46.8842.5--
Regression Average


43.9143.46--


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Obama v. Palin (2012 Trial Heats, July '10)

[Click to Enlarge]

As FHQ has not updated its 2012 presidential trial heat poll graphics since December, there is a lot of catching up to do. And what better place to start than with the most talked about candidate, former Alaska governor Sarah Palin.

Let me make a few notes before diving in to all of this. First of all, I will spare you the mess of all the candidate data being dumped into one post by splitting this up into one post per candidate. We'll start with Palin and move on to the other candidates who have been surveyed multiple times in a hypothetical match ups against the president. I don't know whether I'll continue this practice in the future, but it makes sense in trying to synthesize all of the data from the first half of 2010. One addition I have made here is to add a table with all the past numbers included (dates, sample sizes, margin of error, etc.). [You'll find that at the conclusion of the post.] Such an inclusion likely works against the traditional -- all candidates in one -- presentation of the data if kept permanently (and I think it should be. There is too much data now not to.). The best course of action in future is likely to have timely breaking news-type updates when new polls are released followed by updated graphics for each candidate and finally a post discussing the trends across all candidates. That is how we will procede in the short term anyway.

There are a few other things to mention as well. Obviously, things are getting bunched up with so many polls having been conducted in the cases of some candidates. This is most problematic in terms of reporting the polling firms on the figure itself. It is really pronounced in the case of Obama v. Palin. I doubt this practice will be able to survive for much longer. FHQ is currently looking into some Flash- and Java-based alternatives that will allow users to simply hover over a data point on the graph and receive the attendant information. I'll keep you posted on that progress and in the meantime, if anyone has suggestions on how to do that relatively quickly and easily, please just drop a note in the comments section or shoot me an email.

And what of Obama and Palin?

For the sake of brevity, FHQ will confine this catch-up analysis to the overall trend throughout 2010. A poll-by-poll analysis eight months into the year seems like overkill. Public Policy Polling has surveyed this match up every month since March 2009 and as such is by far the most consistent player on the 2012 polling front. Palin has fairly regularly brought up the rear compared to the other three regulars (Gingrich, Huckabee and Romney) against Obama and yet, she, like the others has seen her share of respondents increase in 2010 as Obama's approval has declined. The one noticeable trend is that Palin does better in the PPP (and Rasmussen) surveys than she does in polls conducted by other firms. That is likely to elicit the classic robo-call versus live (phone) interview debate among some, but with so few polls from other outlets, FHQ will simply rate it as something to keep tabs on in the future. Palin's PPP presence has shifted from consistently in the 30s in 2009 to consistently in the 40s in 2010. Other firms are more likely to find her in the 30s in 2010.

The bottom line in this hypothetical match up is that Obama stays closer to 50% against Palin than he does against any of the other regular GOP names in the presidential race. I'll dispense with the straight averages comparison -- it is included in the table below -- but will mention the regression time series. Taking that trend into consideration, Obama leads Palin 49-41. That is all well and good, but none of this particularly matters until and unless the Republican nomination race in 2012 boils down to a two person race where general election electability becomes the argument a la Obama v. Clinton in 2008.

2012 Presidential Trial Heat Polling (Obama v. Palin)
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
ObamaPalin
Undecided
Politico [Internet]
July 9-14, 2010
+/- 3.1%
1011 likely voters
48
3616
Time
July 12-13, 2010
+/- --%
1003 adults/873 r.v.
5534
4
Public Policy Polling
July 9-12, 2010
+/- 3.8%
667 likely voters
46
46
9
Public Policy Polling
June 4-7, 2010
+/- 3.8%
650 likely voters
5041
9
Public Policy Polling
May 7-9, 2010+/- %
707 likely voters
50436
Public Policy Polling
April 9-11, 2010+/- 3.9%
622 likely voters
47
45
7
CNN
April 9-11, 2010
+/- 3.5%
907 reg. voters
5542--
Clarus Research
March 17-20, 2010
+/- 3%
1050 reg. voters
523414
Public Policy Polling
March 12-14, 2010
+/- 2.6%
1403 likely voters
49
41
10
Harris [Internet]
March 10-12, 2010
+/- --%
2344 adults
523513
Public Policy Polling
Feb. 13-15, 2010
+/- 3.5%
743 likely voters
5043
7
Public Policy Polling
Jan. 18-19, 2010
+/- 2.8%
1151 likely voters
49
41
9
Public Policy Polling
Dec. 4-7, 2009
+/- 2.8%
1253 likely voters
50446
Rasmussen
Nov. 24, 2009
+/- 3.5%
800 likely voters
46
43
3
Public Policy Polling
Nov. 13-15, 2009
+/- 3%
1066 likely voters
5143
5
Public Policy Polling
Oct. 16-19, 2009
+/- 3.5%
766 likely voters
5240
8
Public Policy Polling
Sept. 18-21, 2009
+/- 3.9%
621 likely voters
53389
Clarus Research
Aug. 14-18, 2009
+/- 3.1%
1003 voters
533413
Public Policy Polling
Aug. 14-17, 2009
+/- 3.3%
909 likely voters
523810
Marist
Aug. 3-6, 2009
+/- 5%
854 reg. voters
563311
Rasmussen
July 16-17, 2009
+/- 3%
1000 likely voters
48
42
3
Public Policy Polling
July 15-16, 2009
+/- 4.1%
577 likely voters
5143
6
Public Policy Polling
June 12-16, 2009
+/- 3.9%
638 likely voters
52408
Public Policy Polling
May 14-18, 2009
+/- 3.1%
1000 likely voters
56377
Public Policy Polling
April 17-19, 2009
+/- 3.7%
686 likely voters
53416
Public Policy Polling
March 13-15, 2009
+/- 3.7%
691 likely voters
5535
10
Average


51.239.54
--
Regression Average


49.1140.51--


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Wednesday, July 21, 2010

A New Part of the Invisible Primary

CBSNews picks up where FHQ left off late last year: with a look at the Twitter followings of the potential 2012 Republican presidential candidates.

This is yet more evidence of the alteration to the invisible primary since the advent of the internet. Websites have given way to blogs have given way to social networking sites. Throughout this evolution candidates have become better able to circumvent the media and talk directly to supporters or interested passersby. Sarah Palin has used both Facebook and Twitter to great effect

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Friday, July 16, 2010

Is it 21 or tied? Obama v. Palin (2012) --Time poll

The talk of the evening and this morning -- at least on the 2012 presidential front -- is the discrepancy between the Public Policy Polling survey on 2012 general election scenarios (FHQ mentioned the numbers from it yesterday.) and a new national poll from Time Magazine. The point of overlap -- again with 2012 in mind -- is the Barack Obama versus Sarah Palin question.

Here's PPP:
Obama: 46
Palin: 46
Not sure: 9
And here's Time:

11. If the presidential election were held today and the candidates were Barack Obama, the Democrat, and Sarah Palin, the Republican, and you had to choose, for whom would you vote? (Only registered voters responding)

Barack Obama, the Democrat 55%
Sarah Palin, the Republican 34%
Other / Neither 7%
Would not vote in election 1%
Undecided / Don't know / No answer 4%

21-0. That's a large gap. FHQ natural inclination in a situation like this is to split the difference and move on. None of this is without caveat. PPP has conducted a national 2012 trial heat poll between Obama and Palin every month since March 2009. The Raleigh-based polling outfit, then, has established something of a baseline in this hypothetical race. But there has been some variability in those polls as well. Things were similarly tight between the two candidates back in April before jumping back into the high single digits in May and to ten points a month ago.

So, before saying the true, yes hypothetical, lead is 10 points and moving on, allow FHQ one last comment. Tom Jensen said it best in the wrap up to his post on the poll's highlights a day ago. I'm paraphrasing here: Perhaps we'll look back on this time and see this as an aberration for Obama or the point at which the wheels really began falling off. That's true. One thing is for certain though and this hasn't really been talked about enough. No other Republican candidate can solidify the Democratic base better than Palin. To be sure, she can perhaps do a good job of unifying the Republican Party as well. Her presence on the ballot would do wonders for the oft-cited enthusiasm gap that the GOP holds in terms of voter turnout during 2010 (and maybe 2012 as well). It would neutralize it. What Palin has to do if she is serious about a run at the White House is figure out the formula for adding independents. Until the former Alaska governor can do that consistently, the true gap between her and Obama will likely stay in that high single digit to 10 point range. If Obama keeps trending downward, that won't hurt Palin's cause.

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