Back to the Future: The February Frontloading Experiment is Over

The Democratic Change Commission?

Well, it is a change election, so while we're on the topic why not change the method of selecting presidential nominees in the future? If Obama and the DNC have their way, that's just what the Democrats will do. At issue? The frontloading of presidential nominating events. [What, again? Didn't we already do this four years ago and four years before that and... Yes, and we'll do it again until we get it right.

...apparently.]

The proposed commission would be tasked with examining the frontloading problem and devising potential solutions. For once the GOP is actually out in front on this one. They are set to discuss the Ohio Plan at their convention in St. Paul next month. That proposal would grant the Favored Four (Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina) their position at the front of the line, but would grant a collection of the smallest remaining states the option of holding their contests next, prior to bigger states (which would be divided into three groups). Following the early states, the small state group would vote on the third Tuesday in February. The first group of larger states would then vote two weeks later with the final two groups stretching out three and six weeks beyond that.

The DNC and Obama spokespersons were not terribly clear about the direction in which the party wanted to head, but did target the caucus system (still a Clinton supporter sore point) and frontloading as things that needed to be addressed prior to the next cycle.

But here is what they did say:
Protect the Favored Four?
Check.

"Obama continues to believe in the important role that Iowa and New Hampshire have historically played in the process of choosing our party’s Presidential Nominee and the important early role Nevada and South Carolina had in 2008," [Obama spokesman, Nick] Shapiro added.

Scale back the window in which primaries and caucuses can be held?
Check.

"So, we are recommending that our nominating rules be amended so that no primary or caucus can be held prior to the first Tuesday in March, except for the four pre-window states."

Stop frontloading?
Check.

"We are asking the Democratic Party to review this frontloading and look for a workable solution to reduce it," Shapiro wrote.

I'm with Shapiro on those first two points. That's been done before. The Favored Four are favored for a reason (tradition) and the beginning point of the window has been moved before. The GOP moved it into February in 2000 and the Democrats followed suit over the course of the 2004 and 2008 cycles. But to undo that shift forward? That hasn't been done. And there still has been no viable solution to the frontloading problem. Well, there is no shortage of solution ideas, but there is a decided lack of methods for carrying those ideas out.

On its surface, scaling the window back to the first week in March (for all non-exempt states) would essentially return the calendar to its pre-2000 form. And that first week in March timing is not too far off from the starting point for all the non-exempt states (the Favored Four in other words) in the Ohio Plan proposal that the GOP has advanced. [Ooh, is that a hint at the potential for bipartisan accord on this issue?] However, preventing states from jumping that point and not crowding in on that early March Tuesday is going to be where the real work on this issue will need to be done. And that is where the ability of state parties, partisans of both stripes in state governments and the national parties working together to come to a solution comes into play. Well, if that's all, it should be a snap.

It won't be, but I'll certainly have my eye on the conventions in the coming weeks to see not only how this proposed commission fares but whether the Ohio Plan passes muster at the GOP convention (the only time they can deal with the issue prior to 2012). The new commission would have a report ready no later than January of 2010.

TRACKING...

And here's the word from Iowa.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (8/20/08)

On VP Predictions: Timing and Choices

Is Rasmussen's Inclusion of "Leaners" Affecting the Electoral College Outlook Now? An Update

The Electoral College Map (8/20/08)

Well, things are getting interesting. [Haven't they been all along?] Recent poll movement toward McCain continues with the incorporation of twelve new polls in eleven states. Blue state margins are tightening, especially in states like Iowa and Minnesota and the toss up states have taken on a decidedly McCain tilt of late. Recently, both Colorado and Nevada have moved toward the Arizona senator. Also, after a pro-Obama blip in the polling in Florida, the Sunshine state has returned to polling numbers that reflect the weighted average we have here. Which is to say, a toss up favoring McCain.

New Polls (Aug. 17-20)
State	Poll	Margin (With Leaners/ Without Leaners)
Florida	Rasmussen	+2/+3
Georgia	Rasmussen	+9/+7
Illinois	Rasmussen	+15/+15
Indiana	Survey USA	+6
Iowa	Univ. of Iowa	+5.1/+6.5
Louisiana	Rasmussen	+18/+17
Minnesota	Survey USA	+2
New York	Siena	+8
North Carolina	Civitas	+6
Ohio	Public Policy Polling	0
Ohio	Rasmussen	+5/+4
Pennsylvania	Susquehanna	+5

In Ohio, though, the back and forth continues. The tie in the latest PPP poll and another McCain advantage in this month's Rasmussen poll of the Buckeye state (one that largely mirrors the firm's poll of the state last month), swings Ohio back over to McCain's side. The switch of those 20 electoral votes brings to fruition the closer feeling the race has taken on of late. In fairness, though, I should mention that Ohio reclaimed its position as the closest state in our averages. After yielding the title to Nevada after last week's Rasmussen poll in the Silver state, Ohio not only shifted over to McCain, but did so by the smallest of margins: 0.07 points. Due to the weight being placed on the most recent poll, a subsequent result that favored McCain by less than 1.5 points or a poll favoring Obama would shift the state back to the Illinois senator. Needless to say, Ohio continues to be on the Watch List (below).

[One other note, given the updated discussion yesterday regarding Rasmussen's reporting of both "leaners" numbers and those without leaners: If the without leaners data are used, Obama still leads in Ohio even with this new poll included.]

Changes (Aug. 17-20)
State	Before	After
Ohio	Toss Up Obama	Toss Up McCain

That 20 electoral vote shift now brings the tally in the electoral college to 278-260 in Obama's favor. Despite the shift, the election appears to be hinging on the results in the four closest states in our average: Colorado, Nevada, Ohio and Virginia. But given the current dynamics of the race -- seemingly favoring McCain -- you can begin to envision more of those light blue states being brought more seriously into play. That isn't to say that McCain isn't making efforts in any of those states -- he is -- but they are certainly more attainable if the winds are blowing in his direction. Colorado and Nevada are already marked, but states like Michigan and New Hampshire are also worth increased attention if McCain is pushing into the blue states. I exclude Pennsylvania from that discussion because unlike any of the other toss up states favoring Obama, the Keystone state is actually trending toward Obama. Even the lower margins in the most recent polls of Pennsylvania are running above where the weighted average has the state charted. That being the case, the average typically inches up every time there is a poll that runs above the established average.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

At the same time, if the political winds were to shift [What, two wind references in one post? I know, I have a problem.] back in Obama's direction -- and they are likely to do so at least a little with the Democrats' convention next week -- the current trend could reverse itself. McCain, though, seems to be in a good spot now. Obviously, polling is moving in his direction, but what happens when the dynamics of campaign spending are altered. Seth Masket over at Enik Rising has a post up asking that very same question. McCain's time of spending furiously is almost at its end. Following the GOP convention, the Arizona senator will be party to the spending cap placed on him by the federal matching funds system. Currently, he's spending the uncapped money collected for use prior to the general election campaign. Granted, he'll have some help from the coordinated efforts of the Republican National Committee, but will we see any drop for McCain after his convention (Well, not directly after it, but in the period afterward.)? Put differently, will Obama be able to use his decision to opt out of federal funding to his advantage to regain his footing in the race? That's definitely something to consider (Perhaps for the comments section.).

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4 (7)**	WA-11 (165)	PA-21 (264/295)	FL-27 (369/196)	LA-9 (67)
VT-3 (10)	MN-10 (175)	CO-9*** (273/274)	NC-15 (384/169)	ID-4 (58)
RI-4 (14)	DE-3 (178)	NV-5 (278/265)	SC-8 (154)	NE-5 (54)
MD-10 (24)	OR-7 (185)	OH-20 (298/260)	SD-3 (146)	WY-3 (49)
IL-21 (45)	NJ-15 (200)	VA-13 (311/240)	TX-34 (143)	AR-6 (46)
CT-7 (52)	IA-7 (207)	ND-3 (314/227)	GA-15 (109)	TN-11 (40)
ME-4 (56)	WI-10 (217)	MT-3 (317/224)	MS-6 (94)	KY-8 (29)
NY-31 (87)	NM-5 (222)	IN-11 (328/221)	WV-5 (88)	AL-9 (21)
CA-55 (142)	MI-17 (239/316)	MO-11 (339/210)	AZ-10 (83)	UT-5 (12)
MA-12 (154)	NH-4 (243/299)	AK-3 (342/199)	KS-6 (73)	OK-7 (7)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including New Hampshire (all Obama's toss up states, but Michigan), he would have 299 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That state is referred to as the victory line.

Even with the shift in McCain's direction, the Electoral College Spectrum hasn't changed all that much (nor has the map for that matter). What has happened is that you begin to see the state of play differently. We've moved in short order from talking about how far Obama could potentially push into those pink states to which ones McCain may now be able to pull off. That said, surprisingly tight margins recently in Iowa and Minnesota didn't pull either into the toss up category. And those same four states -- Colorado, Nevada, Ohio and Virginia -- remain the most vital components of either candidate amassing 270 electoral votes. Of course, as Allen -- from Election Projection -- aptly said earlier today, Obama still has more paths to victory. That is certainly true, but if things continue on their current trajectory, that may change as well.

The Watch List*
State	Switch
Alaska	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
Florida	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
Georgia	from McCain lean	to Strong McCain
Mississippi	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Nevada	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
New Mexico	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
North Carolina	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
Ohio	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Virginia	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Washington	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
Wisconsin	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

As for the Watch List, there are a couple of alterations to Sunday's list to note. Minnesota has shifted from being on the list as a state to potenially shift from Strong Obama to an Obama lean to now being completely off the list. However, if you look a the Spectrum above, you'll see that the North Star state has not shifted at all. Truth be told, Minnesota is a victim of the definition of what's included on the Watch. It is no longer within a fraction of a point of switching back to that Strong Obama distinction, but it is within exactly one point of it (...tied with seldom-polled Delaware). Ohio is the only other change. As I mentioned, the Buckeye state remains on the list but is now slated for a potential move toward Obama instead of a move in McCain's direction.

[Note: I purposely avoided the VP topic here. If you'd like to weigh in on the latest speculation, please follow the link to the VP thread immediately below in "Recent Posts". Thanks.]


Recent Posts:
On VP Predictions: Timing and Choices

Is Rasmussen's Inclusion of "Leaners" Affecting the Electoral College Outlook Now? An Update

The New Ohio Poll and McCain's VP Choice

On VP Predictions: Timing and Choices

The roots of a good discussion have already begun in the post I put up yesterday regarding McCain opting for Mitt Romney as his running mate. Both Jack and Scott have added some interesting links that, when taken together, point toward Obama making his selection known sometime between Wednesday morning and Friday -- prior to a Springfield event on Saturday to introduce the new ticket.

Scott has already weighed in. He sees a Friday announcement. At this point, I'm hesitant to put in my two cents, having already missed once. However, I'll say that Thursday morning will be when Obama makes the call. [See, I'm still averaging the difference.] That gives them a bit more exposure time, but not enough to set off a backlash.

And what say you, loyal FHQ readers? Lurkers you too can have an anonymous place in the spotlight. The comments section is there for both predictions on when the announcement(s) will be made and who will be named running mate -- on both sides.

[UPDATE]: Check out Scott's comment below for some Sebelius speculation (via our good friends over at DemConWatch.).


Recent Posts:
Is Rasmussen's Inclusion of "Leaners" Affecting the Electoral College Outlook Now? An Update

The New Ohio Poll and McCain's VP Choice

The Electoral College Map (8/17/08)

Is Rasmussen's Inclusion of "Leaners" Affecting the Electoral College Outlook Now? An Update

It has been about three weeks since FHQ last checked in on the effect the early July decision by Rasmussen to report "leaners" in their polling releases had on our electoral college projections. At the time, only Ohio switched from favoring Obama to favoring McCain based on which version (with leaners or without) was used. In the period since though, there have been 27 new Rasmussen polls in 27 states. For 18 of those, that means the second (or third in the case of Minnesota) poll since the switch. The point of the comparison between the two types of numbers initially was to account for the discrepancy in the comparison of with leaners polls to previous without leaners polls. It just wasn't an apples to apples comparison.

With multiple "leaners" polls now out in 18 states, that really isn't the concern anymore. There are still nine states that had their first "with leaners" results reported since the beginning of August (and 13 others that have yet to have had their first with leaners poll conducted), but this is now primarily an exercise in examining how the electoral college projection would change -- and not a critique of the wholesale switch over to using the "leaners" numbers that took place in the aftermath of the change. We have the data, why not look at it? The more information we have from a "with leaners"/"without leaners" perspective, the more likely we are to begin seeing differences in the electoral college projections.

What we saw initially was that the leaners were breaking for McCain nearly across the board, but that around the time of Obama's trip abroad, that began to switch. And since that point, McCain's advantage in the "with leaners" numbers has almost been cut in half (from +1.08 to just +0.64 now). [Since the table is getting so large, I've decided to just simply append it to the end of the post instead of breaking up the text with such a mammoth figure. The new data are below the re-labelling of the columns.] Regardless, McCain continues to maintain an advantage over Obama with the leaners in these polls. And in an election that looks like it could come down to who is swinging the most independents, that's an important distinction.

But let's look at that more closely, focusing on the more recent polls (the new additions this time). Of those 27 states, eight are red states, eleven are blue states and the remaining eight are toss ups. In nine of the eleven blue states, the leaners are going for Obama (Though, it should be noted that in five of those nine, the leaners margin is exactly the same as the without leaners margin.), and in five of the red states, the leaners move in McCain's direction. So McCain in red states and Obama in blue. No real surprise there.

In the toss up states though, there are some differences. McCain holds slight advantages in 5 of those eight toss up states. The leaners broke for him in 60% of those cases (Missouri and Montana being the exceptions.). The picture for Obama was different. Of the three toss ups that favored the Illinois senator, the leaners moved toward him in one (Colorado), against him in another (Michigan) and broke even in the third (Nevada). That list of states was the very same as the one I discussed yesterday in the post about the benefits McCain could gain from tapping Mitt Romney as his running mate. Those three plus all the states in various shades of red add up to 271 electoral votes. And it is a very small consolation that Obama gains leaners in Colorado yet has the overall lead in the poll go to McCain. Nor is it beneficial to break even in Nevada when the overall poll favors McCain -- a switch from the month prior. In other words, having leaners break for him in Missouri and Montana is about all Obama can hang his hat on in this instance.

But what about the electoral college projection? Well, no matter which measure you use -- with or without leaners -- the projection (as a function of our weighted average) remains the same: 298-240 in favor of Obama. In fact, it is interesting that some of these leaner gains are cancelling each other out when subsequent polls are released. That has happened in both Minnesota and Wisconsin. Also, Nevada and Oregon have shown the same margins in both versions of the polls across two releases now.

One additional pattern that we can glean from these Rasmussen polls is the line up of states that are likely to have new polling data released in the next week. If everything holds to form, there should be new data in Arkansas, California, Florida, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio and Pennsylvania in the near future. The last five of those are certainly worth keeping an eye on. All are toss ups with the exception of New Mexico. Given how other western states favoring Obama (Colorado and Nevada) have fared lately, it will be interesting to see if New Mexico follows suit.

Rasmussen Polls Since w/Leaners Distinction was Added (7/9/08)*
State	Date	w/o Leaners	w/Leaners	Change	Undecideds Drop
Missouri	7/7	+5	+5	0	-10
New Jersey	7/7	+5	+3	+2	-4
Illinois	7/8	+13	+11	+2	-6**
North Dakota	7/8	0	+1	+1	-7**
Wisconsin	7/8	+13	+10	+3	-6
Louisiana	7/9	+20	+19	+1	-2
South Dakota	7/9	+4	+4	0	-4
Washington	7/9	+9	+8	+1	-6
Iowa	7/10	+10	+10	0	-9
Michigan	7/10	+8	+8	0	-5
Minnesota	7/10	+18	+17	+1	0
Kansas	7/14	+20	+23	+3	-9
North Carolina	7/15	+3	+3	0	-5
Oregon	7/15	+9	+9	0	-5
Nevada	7/16	+2	+2	0	-5
Virginia	7/16	0	+1	+1	-6
Alaska	7/17	+5	+5	0	-7
Arkansas	7/17	+10	+13	+3	-4
Georgia	7/17	+9	+11	+2	+1
Maine	7/17	+10	+8	+2	-2
Colorado	7/21	+7	+3	+4	-13
Ohio	7/21	+6	+10	+4	-7
Florida	7/22	+1	+2	+1	-7
Minnesota	7/22	+12	+13	+1	--***
New Hampshire	7/23	+6	+4	+2	-5
Pennsylvania	7/23	+5	+6	+1	-8
New Mexico	7/24	+5	+6	+1	-6
California	7/24	+12	+10	+2	-6
State	Date	w/o Leaners	w/Leaners	Change	Undecideds Drop
Mississippi	7/28	+11	+12	+1	-2
Nebraska	7/28	+18	+19	+1	-3
Kentucky	7/29	+10	+9	+1	-9
Montana	7/29	+1	0	+1	-3
Alaska	7/30	+5	+6	+1	--***
Arizona	7/30	+16	+19	+3	-6
Texas	7/30	+9	+8	+1	-7
Alabama	7/31	+18	+20	+2	-9
Connecticut	7/31	+15	+13	+2	-6
New Jersey	8/4	+8	+10	+2	--***
New York	8/4	+20	+19	+1	-2
Massachusetts	8/5	+15	+16	+1	-6
Wisconsin	8/5	+4	+7	+3	--***
Washington	8/6	+12	+12	0	--***
Iowa	8/7	+5	+5	0	--***
Michigan	8/7	+7	+4	+3	--***
Missouri	8/7	+7	+6	+1	--***
Oregon	8/7	+10	+10	0	--***
Kansas	8/11	+15	+14	+1	--***
Nevada	8/11	+3	+3	0	--***
Illinois	8/12	+15	+15	0	--***
Maine	8/12	+13	+14	+1	--***
Virginia	8/12	+1	+1	+2	--***
Colorado	8/13	+2	+1	+1	--***
Minnesota	8/13	+4	+4	0	--***
North Carolina	8/13	+4	+6	+2	--***
Georgia	8/14	+7	+9	+2	--***
Avg. Change				+0.64	-5.57
*The "with leaners" distinction was added to reports that were released beginning on 7/9/08. The date on which these polls were conducted (The ones that these releases were based on) stretches back to 7/7/08. **Rasmussen has only conducted one poll in these states. Therefore, the difference was taken from between the with and without leaner numbers within the same poll in these cases. ***Previous poll had been taken after "with leaners" change had been made.

Recent Posts:
The New Ohio Poll and McCain's VP Choice

The Electoral College Map (8/17/08)

Which States are Underpolled in the Presidential Race?

The New Ohio Poll and McCain's VP Choice

With Public Policy Polling's release of a new poll in Ohio last night, the current state of the presidential race took on a much closer feel. Let's look at yesterday's Electoral College Spectrum with that poll incorporated to get a better feel for the dynamics as they now stand.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4 (7)**	WA-11 (165)	PA-21 (264/295)	FL-27 (369/196)	LA-9 (67)
VT-3 (10)	MN-10 (175)	CO-9*** (273/274)	NC-15 (384/169)	ID-4 (58)
RI-4 (14)	DE-3 (178)	OH-20 (293/265)	SC-8 (154)	NE-5 (54)
MD-10 (24)	OR-7 (185)	NV-5 (298/245)	SD-3 (146)	WY-3 (49)
IL-21 (45)	NJ-15 (200)	VA-13 (311/240)	TX-34 (143)	AR-6 (46)
CT-7 (52)	IA-7 (207)	ND-3 (314/227)	GA-15 (109)	TN-11 (40)
NY-31 (83)	WI-10 (217)	IN-11 (325/224)	MS-6 (94)	KY-8 (29)
ME-4 (87)	NM-5 (222)	MT-3 (328/213)	WV-5 (88)	AL-9 (21)
CA-55 (142)	MI-17 (239/316)	MO-11 (339/210)	AZ-10 (83)	UT-5 (12)
MA-12 (154)	NH-4 (243/299)	AK-3 (342/199)	KS-6 (73)	OK-7 (7)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including New Hampshire (all Obama's toss up states, but Michigan), he would have 299 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That state is referred to as the victory line.

Wait, that looks exactly like yesterday's ECS. It does. That tie in the Buckeye state made the margin between Obama and McCain smaller there, but Ohio still slightly favors Obama. More importantly though, Colorado, Nevada and Ohio have inched closer to McCain of late, and those three states along with Virginia are the states upon which this race appears to be hinging at the moment. If either candidate gets all their current states outside of that four state block, they will need some combination of those four to break 270 electoral votes.

Here's where McCain's choice of a running mate comes into play. The Arizona senator could play offense in Colorado and Nevada by tapping Mitt Romney as his vice presidential nominee. The former Massachusetts governor would also help in his home state of Michigan. That potentially puts Obama in a real bind. McCain would be on the offensive in those two western states and Michigan and would have to play defense to hold on to Virginia, but wouldn't even "need" Ohio. Granted, if you look at the Spectrum, ceding Ohio and swinging Michigan to the right would cost McCain three electoral votes, but it would help him squeak by in the electoral college with a 271-267 advantage. And hey, Ohio is trending the Arizona senator's way.

Looking at the electoral college breakdown and vice presidential selection in that light makes me second-guess the pundits' thoughts about McCain's pro-choice running mate trial balloon in the Weekly Standard last week. Did that comment indicate Ridge and/or Lieberman or was it referring to someone who has moderated his views on the abortion question, Mitt Romney? There are certainly other issues surrounding Romney, but would his religious background affect the ticket enough to swing any states Obama's way? My first impression is that it would not, though some states (especially in the South) would be closer than they have been in the past. In the end, that is a razor-thin electoral college margin, but at this point, it looks like Romney may be able to do the most damage to Obama and the Democrats in the electoral college. What he brings to the table, is what helps McCain the most in the electoral college.

This swoon period will end for Obama with the effect the combination of a VP selection and the convention helping. Will that effect be muted by the GOP convention that follows on the heels of the Democrats', though? Suddenly, August looks to be a challenging month for the second consecutive cycle for the Democrats. If the race looks tied after whatever bounce the GOP convention gives McCain, then the debates will likely play a crucial role in deciding who will win this election in November.

Speaking of convention bumps, Thomas Holbrook has a post up on his blog now that looks at the effects of past conventions and glances ahead to the upcoming conventions.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (8/17/08)

Which States are Underpolled in the Presidential Race?

The Electoral College Map (8/14/08)

The Electoral College Map (8/17/08)

The latter half of the week closed with just a handful of new polls. That is quite a departure from recent weeks when the bulk of polling releases had been backloaded, occurring between Wednesday and Friday (No, there have not been many polls released over the weekend since primary season ended, and yes, I did put Wednesday's polls in the mid-week update due to the delay caused by my foray into the 2004 data.). Still, even with just six new polls from five states out, there were some shake ups throughout FHQ's various depictions of the race's dynamics.

New Polls (Aug. 14-17)
State	Poll	Margin (With Leaners/ Without Leaners)
Colorado	Rocky Mountain News	+3
Colorado	Rasmussen	+1/+2
Maine	Rasmussen	+14/+13
Minnesota	Rasmussen	+4/+4
North Carolina	Rasmussen	+6/+4
Texas	University of Texas	+10

The first impression is that that is a lot of red. Must be good for McCain, right? Yes, but maybe not for that reason. North Carolina and Texas are a toss up and a lean state, respectively and both continue to hold steady in those positions favoring McCain. The same is true of Maine, though the Pine Tree state is blue, not red. With the new polls in Colorado and Minnesota, though, we see a bit of a divergence from what we have become accustomed to in both. Colorado is beginning to look a lot like Nevada: a western state that remains blue but is trending in McCain's direction. Each have been and continue to be toss up states and the polls in each reflect that. An overwhelming majority of the Colorado polls released since Obama clinched the Democratic nomination have been within the margin of error, but since mid-July half of the six polls have favored McCain. That's departure from the pattern that had dominated before that: close polls favoring Obama. And Minnesota? The North Star state also saw a change from typical polling patten.

Changes (Aug. 14-17)
State	Before	After
Minnesota	Strong Obama	Obama lean

Minnesota becomes the first blue state to move away from Obama into another category since Ohio turned pink based on a Rasmussen poll in late July. But Ohio is a toss up state. We'd expect, to some extent, a toss up state to be more volatile than a state that is either a lean or strong. Minnesota was actually the last such state to move away from Obama all the way back on June 3. [Yeah, the day Obama wrapped up the nomination.] I glanced back through the maps to the point where I adopted the weighted average on April 30, and Minnesota -- a state that has hovered around the line between strong and lead all along -- was the only blue state (lean or strong) to have moved away from Obama in that time. By comparison, McCain has had 6 lean or strong states (Alaska, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, South Dakota and Texas) move away from him since mid-June (not counting the states that shifted in one direction and moved back). Just two of those six (Alaska and South Dakota) have come since mid-July, though.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

So, while some states have shown signs of trending toward McCain of late, that movement has yet to manifest itself in the electoral vote tally. The electoral college still favors Obama by a 298-240 margin. Obama, though, is now 10 electoral votes down in his strong category. The total of Obama strong state electoral votes remains larger than the sum of electoral votes in both McCain's strong states and the states leaning in his direction. That cushion is not as big anymore, though. And while that isn't readily apparent on the map above, we can begin to see it in the Electoral College Spectrum (ECS).

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4 (7)**	WA-11 (165)	PA-21 (264/295)	FL-27 (369/196)	LA-9 (67)
VT-3 (10)	MN-10 (175)	CO-9*** (273/274)	NC-15 (384/169)	ID-4 (58)
RI-4 (14)	DE-3 (178)	OH-20 (293/265)	SC-8 (154)	NE-5 (54)
MD-10 (24)	OR-7 (185)	NV-5 (298/245)	SD-3 (146)	WY-3 (49)
IL-21 (45)	NJ-15 (200)	VA-13 (311/240)	TX-34 (143)	AR-6 (46)
CT-7 (52)	IA-7 (207)	ND-3 (314/227)	GA-15 (109)	TN-11 (40)
NY-31 (83)	WI-10 (217)	IN-11 (325/224)	MS-6 (94)	KY-8 (29)
ME-4 (87)	NM-5 (222)	MT-3 (328/213)	WV-5 (88)	AL-9 (21)
CA-55 (142)	MI-17 (239/316)	MO-11 (339/210)	AZ-10 (83)	UT-5 (12)
MA-12 (154)	NH-4 (243/299)	AK-3 (342/199)	KS-6 (73)	OK-7 (7)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including New Hampshire (all Obama's toss up states, but Michigan), he would have 299 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That state is referred to as the victory line.

Minnesota's shift doesn't look like all that big a deal now. In fact, it hasn't moved at all. The North Star state changed colors but maintained the same position in the ECS. What is different is that, for the first time, a state other than Pennsylvania is in the Victory Line slot. That more accurately reflects what is (and has been) happening in the race. Pennsylvania has been trending toward Obama while Colorado has not. While not necessarily favoring McCain, the margins in the Centennial state have drawn closer to zero. With Colorado and Pennsylvania basically switching places, the result is that Obama's path to 270 is not as clear. If Colorado and Nevada are trending toward McCain (They are both still in blue above the Partisan Line.) that makes Ohio that much more important. If both western states turn pink, Ohio is the state that would put Obama over the top. Without those two western states and Ohio, McCain becomes president. In fact let's look at it this way: if Colorado and Nevada move into McCain's column and Ohio holds its position, the Victory and Partisan line would converge on the Buckeye state's spot in the ECS. In other words, if the election played out that way, we would basically have a replay of the 2004 election. And this election was supposed to be so much different than those before it. It may yet be, but with the way things are shaping up at the moment, we're looking at another close election with the map changing very little.

The Watch List*
State	Switch
Alaska	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
Florida	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
Georgia	from McCain lean	to Strong McCain
Minnesota	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
Mississippi	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Nevada	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
New Mexico	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
North Carolina	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
Ohio	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
Virginia	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Washington	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
Wisconsin	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

So what should we be watching for in the next week? New polling in any of the twelve states above could potentially bring about the changes charted in the Watch List. Minnesota is the only change on the list since Thursday. But that tighter Rasmussen poll didn't shift the state enough to pull it firmly into the lean category. The North Star state continues to oscillate relatively tightly around the line between the lean and strong categories. Finally, even though Colorado jumped both New Hampshire and Pennsylvania in the ECS, the average still isn't close enough to warrant its inclusion on the Watch