2016 Electoral College

Latest Update: 11/7/16 



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The Electoral College Spectrum1
MD-102
(13)
RI-4
(162)
NH-4
(263)
TX-38
(161)
TN-11
(61)
HI-4
(17)
NJ-14
(176)
CO-94
(272 | 275)
SC-9
(123)
AR-6
(50)
VT-3
(20)
OR-7
(183)
FL-29
(301 | 266)
MO-10
(114)
ND-3
(44)
MA-11
(31)
MN-10
(193)
NC-15
(316 | 237)
IN-11
(104)
NE-53
(41)
CA-55
(86)
ME-23
(195)
NV-6
(322 | 222)
UT-6
(93)
KY-8
(36)
NY-29
(115)
NM-5
(200)
OH-18
(216)
MS-6
(87)
AL-9
(28)
IL-20+13
(136)
WI-10
(210)
IA-6
(198)
SD-3
(81)
ID-4
(19)
DE-3
(139)
MI-16
(226)
AZ-11
(192)
KS-6
(78)
WV-5
(15)
WA-12
(151)
VA-13
(239)
GA-16+13
(181)
LA-8
(72)
OK-7
(10)
CT-7
(158)
PA-20
(259)
AK-3
(164)
MT-3
(64)
WY-3
(3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics.
To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College.

3 Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral college votes to candidates in a more proportional manner. The statewide winner receives the two electoral votes apportioned to the state based on the two US Senate seats each state has. Additionally, the winner within a congressional district is awarded one electoral vote. Given current polling, all five Nebraska electoral votes would be allocated to Trump. In Maine, a split seems more likely. Trump leads in Maine's second congressional district while Clinton is ahead statewide and in the first district. She would receive three of the four Maine electoral votes and Trump the remaining electoral vote. Those congressional district votes are added approximately where they would fall in the Spectrum above.

4 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category.



NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.


The Watch List1
State
Switch
Alaska
from Lean Trump
to Toss Up Trump
Indiana
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
Mississippi
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Nevada
from Toss Up Clinton
to Toss Up Trump
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Ohio
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Clinton
Oregon
from Lean Clinton
to Strong Clinton
Pennsylvania
from Toss Up Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Utah
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.



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Chronology of Category Changes
[Click dates in tables below for more on what prompted the category change]

Changes (November 7)
StateBeforeAfter
OhioToss Up ClintonToss Up Trump
PennsylvaniaLean ClintonToss Up Clinton






Notes:
Clinton 322
Trump 216


Changes (November 4)
StateBeforeAfter
New HampshireLean ClintonToss Up Clinton






Changes (October 21)
StateBeforeAfter
UtahStrong TrumpLean Trump






Changes (October 18)
StateBeforeAfter
IndianaStrong TrumpLean Trump






Changes (October 12)
StateBeforeAfter
Maine CD2Lean TrumpToss Up Trump






Changes (October 8)
StateBeforeAfter
AlaskaStrong TrumpLean Trump
OregonStrong ClintonLean Clinton






Changes (October 6)
StateBeforeAfter
Rhode IslandLean ClintonStrong Clinton






Changes (October 4)
StateBeforeAfter
MississippiLean TrumpStrong Trump
PennsylvaniaToss Up ClintonLean Clinton






Changes (October 3)
StateBeforeAfter
OregonLean ClintonStrong Clinton






Changes (October 1)
StateBeforeAfter
AlaskaLean TrumpStrong Trump
KansasLean TrumpStrong Trump
MaineToss Up ClintonLean Clinton
MississippiStrong TrumpLean Trump
OregonStrong ClintonLean Clinton
UtahLean TrumpStrong Trump










Notes:
Maine's second congressional district shifts to Trump's side of partisan line.
Clinton 340
Trump 198



Changes (September 30)
StateBeforeAfter
NevadaToss Up TrumpToss Up Clinton




Notes:
Clinton 341
Trump 197

Changes (September 27)
StateBeforeAfter
PennsylvaniaLean ClintonToss Up Clinton






Changes (September 25)
StateBeforeAfter
ColoradoLean ClintonToss Up Clinton
MaineLean ClintonToss Up Clinton





Notes:
Clinton falls under 270 electoral votes in her Strong and Lean states after Colorado and Maine shift in to Toss Up territory. The electoral vote distribution remains Clinton 335, Trump 203.


Changes (September 23)
StateBeforeAfter
ArkansasLean TrumpStrong Trump






Changes (September 21)
StateBeforeAfter
NevadaToss Up ClintonToss Up Trump




Notes:
Clinton: 335
Trump: 203


Changes (September 9)
StateBeforeAfter
IndianaLean TrumpStrong Trump






Changes (September 7)
StateBeforeAfter
ConnecticutLean ClintonStrong Clinton
MissouriToss Up TrumpLean Trump
Rhode IslandStrong ClintonLean Clinton









Changes (August 18)
StateBeforeAfter
NevadaToss Up TrumpToss Up Clinton




Notes:
Clinton 347 (+6)
Trump 191 (-6)

Changes (August 17)
StateBeforeAfter
MississippiToss Up TrumpStrong Trump






Changes (August 14)
StateBeforeAfter
New HampshireToss Up ClintonLean Clinton




Notes:
Clinton over 270 electoral votes on the weight of just Strong and Lean states. Blue-leaning toss ups are superfluous.

Changes (August 12)
StateBeforeAfter
VirginiaToss Up ClintonLean Clinton






Changes (August 11)
StateBeforeAfter
South CarolinaLean TrumpToss Up Trump






Changes (August 9)
StateBeforeAfter
MissouriLean TrumpToss Up Trump






Changes (August 8)
StateBeforeAfter
UtahToss Up TrumpLean Trump






Changes (August 7)
StateBeforeAfter
ArizonaToss Up ClintonToss Up Trump




Notes:
Clinton 341 (-11)
Trump 197 (+11)

Changes (August 4)
StateBeforeAfter
PennsylvaniaToss Up ClintonLean Clinton






Changes (August 3)
StateBeforeAfter
ArizonaToss Up TrumpToss Up Clinton
TennesseeLean TrumpStrong Trump





Notes:
Clinton 352 (+11)
Trump186 (-11)

Changes (July 27)
StateBeforeAfter
KansasToss Up TrumpLean Trump






Changes (July 19)
StateBeforeAfter
NevadaToss Up ClintonToss Up Trump




Notes:
Clinton 341 (-6)
Trump 197 (+6)

Changes (July 17)
StateBeforeAfter
VirginiaLean Up ClintonToss Up Clinton






Changes (July 16)
StateBeforeAfter
KansasToss Up ClintonToss Up Trump




Notes:
Clinton 347 (-6)
Trump 191 (+6)

Changes (July 15)
StateBeforeAfter
MissouriToss Up TrumpLean Trump
VirginiaToss Up ClintonLean Clinton







Changes (July 13)
StateBeforeAfter
ColoradoToss Up ClintonLean Clinton






Changes (July 12)
StateBeforeAfter
IowaLean ClintonToss Up Clinton






Changes (July 11)
StateBeforeAfter
NevadaToss Up TrumpToss Up Clinton
OregonToss Up ClintonLean Clinton





Notes:
Clinton 353 (+6)
Trump 185 (-6)

Changes (July 8)
StateBeforeAfter
ArizonaToss Up ClintonToss Up Trump
NevadaLean ClintonToss Up Trump
New HampshireLean ClintonToss Up Clinton







Notes:
Clinton 347 (-17)
Trump 191 (+17)

Changes (July 5)
StateBeforeAfter
KansasLean ClintonToss Up Clinton






Changes (June 27)
StateBeforeAfter
ColoradoLean ClintonToss Up Clinton
MaineStrong ClintonLean Clinton
WisconsinStrong ClintonLean Clinton








Changes (June 23)
StateBeforeAfter
TexasStrong TrumpLean Trump






Changes (June 14)
StateBeforeAfter
KansasStrong TrumpLean Clinton




Notes:
Clinton 364 (+6)
Trump 174 (-6)

Initial projection (6/13/16):
Clinton 358
Trump 180

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