Tuesday, January 15, 2008

GOP opts for foot race to determine nominee following Michigan primary

Someone has to win this thing, right? First Huckabee. Then McCain. Now Romney (Sorry Wyoming. If the GOP race continues like this, those eight delegates may eventually prove consequential despite the lack of coverage ten days ago.). The AP is projecting that Romney has won the Michigan primary by a similar margin to what McCain won New Hampshire by last week. Honestly, don't be surprised if Fred Thompson wins in South Carolina over the weekend. So once Giuliani wins in Florida the Republicans can start over again on Super Tuesday.
Romney 37%
McCain 31
Huckabee 16
--with 11% of precincts in.

Meanwhile Clinton has a commanding 2-1 lead over "uncommitted" on the Democratic side.
Clinton 61%
Uncommitted 33
--with 18% of precincts reporting (9:20pm)

Oh and the Democrats are debating (sans Kucinich). I'm on the outside looking in since MSNBC and laptop aren't on speaking terms tonight. If you are in the same boat I'm in, The Caucus blog over at The New York Times is live blogging the debate.


Robert said...

When I activated Windows Media Player the debate on MSNBC came up fine.

Josh Putnam said...

I would say that it is a Mac thing, but I watched one of the MSNBC debates in the spring on this computer too and things went off without a hitch.

The internet has been s-l-o-w here today.

Oh, now it comes up. I'll have to watch the rest of it tomorrow now.

Rich Clark said...

Aside from the Reno Gazette Poll showing Obama with a 2 point lead over Clinton, there is one from the American Research Group (Jan. 9-14, '08) showing Clinton up by 3 points, but it also shows a real boost for Edwards -- still third, but not embarassingly too far back (about 7 points).

Rich Clark said...

I meant to add to my comment that I'm talking about the Dems in Nevada.

Also, given that this is there first caucus, having the union support is huge, and allowing employees to caucus while they're "on the clock" is unprecedented.

Josh Putnam said...

Good stuff Rich.

Edwards was "still third, but not embarrassingly too far back" in Iowa as well. Sure, it's a different ballgame now, but I surprised by this.

You mentioned unions. How big a role do those endorsements play among their membership? Jim are you out there? Didn't you do a paper (or at least propose one) on unions and presidential races in 8190, lo those many years ago?

Is it possible that Edwards, despite not getting the nod from several of these unions, is still viewed as the "labor guy" among the rank and file?

There's no doubt in my mind that the recent flap between Obama and Clinton helped Edwards. All that did was play up people's "fears" about race, gender and presidential candidates.

Robert said...

Josh, I think you are right about Edwards being helped by the flap over race and gender between Clinton and Obama -- but I think that is only for white males. I think that demographic is becoming an underrespresented minority in the Democratic voter pool. I'm wondering if the semi-controlled bickering is driving white men away from the Democrats. This is a contituency that Bloomberg could capture if he chooses to run.