|New Polls (Sept. 12)|
|Ohio||University of Cinncinati||+4|
Washington ends up going the way of Minnesota: one more state that had hovered around the ten point mark for most of this cycle, yet has suddenly appeared more competitive. New Jersey just feels like another tease for the Republicans. I could be wrong but this is just what the Garden state did four years ago. Then again, there is a difference between Bush and McCain, at least from the McCain campaign's perspective. The Obama folks may wish to disagree.
|Changes (Sept. 12)|
|Ohio||Toss Up Obama||Toss Up McCain|
|Washington||Strong Obama||Obama lean|
And once again Ohio flips back to McCain. Those twenty electoral votes are the ones most up for grabs at this point. Nevada is a close second. However, if you are looking for the state to decide this election, Ohio is looking like it is attempting to reprise its role from 2004. But Florida looked that way too in 2004 before that series of of hurricanes ripped across the state. I'll let our loyal readers decide if that was a decisive factor in Bush's victory there. I will say this, though, it gave Bush an opportunity to look presidential just prior to the election.
So should Obama sit on an eight electoral vote advantage? Or more importantly, will he and his campaign? My guess is no. But just as was the case during the primaries, the campaign is hugely confident in its ground game, and even though money isn't everything, that $10 million dollar response to Palin's speech, indicates that there is still a well that can be tapped from here until election day.
|The Electoral College Spectrum*|
|*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.|
**The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (all Obama's toss up states, but Michigan and New Mexico), he would have 299 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics.
***The line between Colorado and New Hampshire is the where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.
There is a whole lot of different shades of red on the Electoral College Spectrum now, though. With both Ohio and Nevada now pink, Colorado now looks a whole lot more important. I'd still like to see some more polling out of New Hampshire to see the Palin effect there (perceived to be negative among indepedents there), but we could just as easily see Michigan and New Hampshire switch places. And that would really put the pressure on the Obama campaign.
|The Watch List*|
|Florida||from Toss Up McCain||to McCain lean|
|Georgia||from Strong McCain||to McCain lean|
|Minnesota||from Obama lean||to Strong Obama|
|Montana||from McCain lean||to Toss Up McCain|
|Nevada||from Toss Up McCain||to Toss Up Obama|
|New Mexico||from Toss Up Obama||to Obama lean|
|North Carolina||from McCain lean||to Toss Up McCain|
|North Dakota||from McCain lean||to Toss Up McCain|
|Ohio||from Toss Up McCain||to Toss Up Obama|
|Washington||from Obama lean||to Strong Obama|
|Wisconsin||from Obama lean||to Toss Up Obama|
|*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.|
For the time being, though, Michigan is safe from the Watch List. In fact, though it is a toss up, it is still just more than three points in Obama's favor. Washington stays on but changes positions. Now, instead of being on the line between staying strongly in the Obama column and changing to an Obama lean, the opposite is true. The end result is that most states on the list now are on the line between staying where they are and moving away from McCain -- whether to a less solidly McCain category or a more intensely Obama category. In the current environment though some of those moves just seem very unlikely.
Questions About the Current State of the Presidential Race
The Electoral College Map (9/12/08)
The Electoral College Map (9/11/08)