Alright folks, I'm off to a late start to my blogging day today. However, I've got a few things I'd like to get out today. I'll have an electoral college update up shortly, one that will finally incorporate those Zogby numbers from last weekend.
More to the point on that Zogby data, I'll have a revised look at the convention bounce with that date included. I'll also take that opportunity to examine the overall utility of that series of three polling waves from the firm. If the effect is minimal, I'll retain them, but if the averages are significantly skewed with them included (vs. having omitted them), I may consider dropping them. Hold on, now that McCain may be advantaged by these polls, FHQ is considering removing them from the equation. Maybe, but given the increase in polling frequency, such potential outliers could quickly be normalized with the averaging formula. So it is possible, but not necessarily probable that the Zogby data will be dropped. Keep in mind that the first two waves favored Obama. Dropping them from the average would actually cause, in some cases, the average margins to narrow.
Finally, Scott had a really nice look at the state of the race from a bit of a different angle yesterday. I'd like to give that examination its proper due; more than just something that gets lost in the comments.
There are few other things that I may also get to today, but they may be pushed to tomorrow.
The Electoral College Map (9/21/08)
The Electoral College Map (9/20/08)
The Electoral College Map (9/19/08)