|New Polls (Oct. 4)|
Whether you count it as two points or .1 (Only the latter is correct. The data on the former was from a question concerning which candidate would better deal with the current economic situation.), the margin in Elon's poll of North Carolina continues to be a troubling trend for the McCain campaign. Anything there favoring Obama at this stage in the game can't be a positive for McCain. And that trend has stretched down the ballot in North Carolina as well. FHQ doesn't often comment on the congressional races, but being a native North Carolinian, I keep my eye on politics in the Tar Heel state. And this economic crisis and subsequent bailout certainly seems to be giving Democrats more than a fighting chance from the presidential race to the contests for Senate and several House seats. The reason I bring this up is because when we talk about an election where all of the toss up states break in one direction, these are the types of factors that are behind such a potential perfect storm. Is that likely to happen? Maybe, maybe not, but that is what to look for in the polling down the stretch.
With only one new poll out, though, there wasn't that great a chance for change on the map or in any of the other graphics here at FHQ. The Rasmussen poll in Maine again shows a tightening race there, but the Pine Tree state remains comfortably in Obama's group of strong states. One thing that poll does reinforce is the move the McCain campaign has made recently to shift some resources into the state in an effort to pick off Maine's second district. It may ultimately prove a longshot, but if this election ends up being close -- something that most electoral college projections show to be decreasingly likely -- then that one electoral vote could come in handy. As it is, at 278-260 in Obama's favor, that move wouldn't make that much of a difference.
|The Electoral College Spectrum*|
|*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.|
**The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (all Obama's toss up states, but Michigan), he would have 299 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics.
***Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. It is currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in that cell.
And though the Electoral College Spectrum is identical to yesterday's version, there are enough states at stake on the Watch List to potenitally make this race interesting in this last month. As the McCain campaign has alluded over the last day or two, though, much of such a shift back toward the Republican candidate would be contingent upon the campaign narrative moving away from the issues surrounding the economy. The bailout bill has passed, but it will likely be difficult to get that and other related issues off the minds of voters before November 4.
|The Watch List*|
|Iowa||from Obama lean||to Strong Obama|
|Michigan||from Toss Up Obama||to Obama lean|
|Missouri||from Toss Up McCain||to McCain lean|
|Nevada||from Toss Up Obama||to Toss Up McCain|
|North Carolina||from McCain lean||to Toss Up McCain|
|Ohio||from Toss Up McCain||to Toss Up Obama|
|Oregon||from Obama lean||to Strong Obama|
|Pennsylvania||from Toss Up Obama||to Obama lean|
|Texas||from Strong McCain||to McCain lean|
|Virginia||from Toss Up McCain||to Toss Up Obama|
|Washington||from Strong Obama||to Obama lean|
|*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.|
The Electoral College Map (10/4/08)
The Electoral College Map (10/3/08)
Live Blog and Open Thread: The Vice Presidential Debate