Wednesday, November 26, 2008

Georgia Senate Runoff: Early Voting (Day 7)

Well, Atlanta was late getting the Tuesday numbers out today.

Once again, the female proportion of early voters rose, now to just over 53% of early runoff voters. Most of that upward shift was due to a 55-45 female to male split in Tuesday's voting. That split is more in line with where the gender breakdown ended up during general election early voting.

But let's put the runoff into perspective. After including Tuesday's numbers, the total number of early runoff voters just surpassed the number of mail-in absentee voters from the general election. With just one day left to include (And remember, Atlanta won't likely have Wednesday's numbers up until Monday.), the total early voting thus far approximates 17% of general election early voting. If Wednesday's total grew as we've seen the daily numbers grow during the runoff early voting period, then the runoff early voting will end up at about 25% of the general election total (in the Senate race).

That's a significant drop off for a runoff election. But keep in mind that we are just talking about early voting here. Some of that discrepancy can and likely will be made up by election day voting. The impetus may be there to wait until election day this time around. Urban Atlanta voters wanting to avoid the hours long early voting lines they waiting in before November 4 may opt to vote on election day (December 2) this time around. And if we consider voters at least somewhat sophisticated, we can also factor in the knowledge that turnout -- and thus waiting in line -- is going to be lower for the runoff. In other words, why vote early when you can just go on election day? [Well, convenience obviously.]

We have all heard a lot about Obama's field operation being transferred to Georgia for this runoff and that may be true, but I haven't seen a lot of it. This isn't the same as a field operation, but I've seen a lot more Huckabee emails for Chambliss than I've seen Obama emails for Martin. No one's come knocking on my door in Athens as of yet. Nor have they rung me up on th phone. I will say this: Chambliss has been on the air a lot more than Martin has. Granted my TV exposure is limited to a football game on Saturday and the Sunday morning shows, but Chambliss has outdone Martin on TV in those time slots. And yes, that includes ads from the senate campaign committees on both sides of the aisle.

Recent Posts:
Georgia Senate Runoff: Early Voting (Day 6)

Georgia Senate Runoff: The Polls

Georgia Senate Runoff: Early Voting (Day 5 & The Weekend)

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