Wednesday, November 5, 2008

Obama is the Unofficial Winner of North Carolina

Here's the story from the News and Observer. I'll have a map up in a while. The state won't become official until the provisional ballots are counted next month.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

Recent Posts:
More on North Carolina: UPDATE

What's the Matter with North Carolina?

Voting in Athens, GA: A Small Pictorial

17 comments:

Jack said...

Didn't I say Obama would win 364 EVs?

Of course, I thought it would come with Missouri and not Indiana. But my correct prediction should still count for something. Perhaps that pencil sharpener I never got?

Josh Putnam said...

You know, I was thinking about that pencil sharpener the other day. Missouri will hurt you, though. The committee of one will have to deliberate.

Jack said...

C'mon, what do I have to do? I've made so many correct predictions on this site. In fact, I sent out résumés to all the major networks. Fox News is interested.

Robert said...

Maybe Jack and Larry Sabato could share the pencil sharpener.

http://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/article.php?id=LJS2008110604

Jack said...

Sabato's got nothing on me.

Alright, he got the governor's numbers right and I didn't — I thought McCrory would hold off Perdue, though I'm certainly not complaining.

Our House projections were about the same (though it appears he was slightly closer) and our Senate projections were the same.

But I have evidence that Sabato rigged a number of elections to make sure he would beat my predictions. Don Young and Michele Bachmann, thank Larry Sabato.

Besides, the man has a crystal ball. What am I supposed to do against that?

Josh Putnam said...

Former Charlotte mayors running statewide in North Carolina are like veterans at the presidential level. They just don't win. And it crosses party lines.

Harvey Gantt
Richard Vinroot
Pat McCrory

Well, Sue Myrick has held down the fighting 9th district for a while now. That one includes FHQ's hometown, Gastonia. But that isn't statewide.

Robert said...

Josh,

Give it to Jack. He makes a convincing case!

Jack said...

Josh,

You forget Frank I. Osborne, Democratic mayor of Charlotte 1879-1880, who was the elected Attorney General of North Carolina from 1893-1897. Attorney General was an elected office in NC after 1868.

Jack said...

Oh, and thanks, Rob!

Josh Putnam said...

Here's that Crystal Ball link from Rob.

And Jack should be commended for his consistently solid predictions and educated guesswork during the course of the election here at FHQ. I think he has finally earned that pencil sharpener from way back when.

Congrats Jack.

Jack said...

Josh,

Thank you very much. I would like to thank Rob for advocating for me in this comments section. And my campaign manager SarahLawrenceScott, and ...

FHQ's model was as accurate as mine. Both had two states off - I was wrong on MO and IN, FHQ on NC and IN.

So I think you've earned a little prize too. What should it be?

Well, I think there is only one appropriate choice.

I'm working on it and will have it posted later tonight.

Josh Putnam said...

Sounds good. I'll check back in the morning. I'll have a little something about the runoff here, but for now, I'm off to catch up on some sleep.

Jack said...

Josh,

I'll email it to you. It's a little amateurishly done (okay, a lot), but it's the best I could do.

SarahLawrenceScott said...

Speaking of Sarah Lawrence (OK, so you weren't, but you did mention my name), it looks like we'll have an alum as chief of staff.

Cool.

Robert said...

Scott,

Glad you are back on. I want to compliment you on your perception of the strength of the Obama campaign when I started to question it at times. You were right and I was nervous.

Robert said...

Josh,

Don't forget Nebraska!

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/obama-likely-to-win-omaha-electoral.html

Josh Putnam said...

I haven't forgotten it Rob. But I do probably need to post something about that.

Here's that link from Rob by the way.