|New Jersey Gubernatorial Polls (Late August 2009)|
|Neighborhood Research||Aug. 12-21, 2009||37||35||6||--|
|Democracy Corps [pdf]||Aug. 11-12, 2009||35||40||10||15|
Looks pretty similar, right?
It does, but those Neighborhood numbers are among likely voters. The 319 likely voter sample is pared down even further to include undefined "definite" voters . [Christie led among that group 39-36 over Corzine with Chris Daggett pulling in 6%.] I don't know what a definite voter is, but I do know that 319 is definitely pushing the lower end of the acceptable bounds for a statewide sample and that anything lower than that is questionable from a representativeness standpoint.
Add to that the fact that Neighborhood Research is run by conservative strategist and former-Lonegan campaign manager, Rick Shaftan and the intrigue rises. Now, Steve Lonegan was Chris Christie's main opponent in the Republican gubernatorial primary earlier this year. Look, I'm not saying this poll is anything but legitimate, but that is two strikes against it; one on statistical grounds and the other falls in the "guilt by association" category. And I don't think either one is helping the other.
So, please excuse FHQ if we're a touch hesitant about including this poll in our average for the New Jersey gubernatorial race.
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