Thursday, October 15, 2009

State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (10/15/09)

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On the Thursday just more than two weeks out from election day, this is the state of the race in New Jersey's gubernatorial race. With two new polls showing a tight race, there are just a couple of dynamics at work. First, Chris Daggett is pushing well into the double digits in most polls recently and is very close to breaking that barrier in FHQ's averages. Whereas Daggett has the positive momentum, Republican Chris Christie is faced with continually mounting negative momentum. The former US attorney is currently on a trajectory heading closer and closer to incumbent Democrat, Jon Corzine. And sure, Corzine isn't bring any real polling shift to the table (Daggett is), but the governor has been in the position since October began to be the big winner on election day; at least relative to his position in surveys released over the summer.

2009 New Jersey Gubernatorial Race Polling
Margin of Error
Oct. 14, 2009
+/- 4%
750 likely voters
Survey USA
Oct. 12-14, 2009
+/- 4%
611 likely voters

Will that actually come to pass? That's an open question. One thing is for sure, though: Daggett's presence has made this a deadlock at the moment and has put the independent and former Republican in a position to be kingmaker. Where his supporters end up on election day will go a long way toward deciding who the eventual winner will be. That's why it is disappointing that the two polls out today (Rasmussen and Survey USA) didn't include any questions to deal with Daggett's supporters' second choice. But I suppose we all got spoiled by those questions in Public Policy Polling and Quinnipiac's polls earlier in the week.

With just 18 days left, the margin between Corzine and Christie has now fallen to nearly six points in FHQ's averages and continues to decrease as Daggett pushes ever upward.

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