Thursday, October 8, 2009

State of the Race: Virginia Governor (10/8/09)

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September surprises.

No, they just don't seem to work, at least not from the Deeds campaign's perspective. Bob McDonnell's thesis seemed to have made a dent in the summer margin between the Republican and his Democratic opponent during the latter half of September, but first Rasmussen and now the Washington Post have shown McDonnell stretching what was a shrinking lead a month ago back to around the ten point mark. [We'll set Survey USA to the side for the moment as the firm has consistently shown a much broader McDonnell advantage without terribly much fluctuation. FHQ isn't attacking the methodology just the fact that, unlike the two polls cited above, there really has not been that much change to speak of in the series of Survey USA polls out in this race since the June primary.]

2009 Virginia Gubernatorial Race Polling
Margin of Error
Washington Post
Oct. 4-7, 2009
+/- 3%
1001 likely voters

So while things may be looking down for Republicans further north in New Jersey, they have trended upward in the Old Dominion. Now mind you, Deeds has been creeping up in FHQ's averages through the last four polls, but that quartet of surveys has also seen McDonnell crest above the 50% barrier and pushed the Republican above that point here at FHQ. Deeds is currently at his highest point in our averages since early July, but he is being outpaced by his opponent at this point and McDonnell is in the drivers seat with just 26 days left until November 3.

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