Thursday, October 18, 2012

The Electoral College Map (10/17/12), part two

Tuesday night after the debate the results from the latest wave of YouGov surveys began trickling out and hit in full force today. Instead of lumping that data in with the other data from Wednesday, FHQ opted to do what it did with the YouGov data from their September wave: Deal with it separately. That is something that we have done for no other reason than because it is more efficient to get the data into the charts that way. It has nothing to do with singling out the internet-based pollster because of their methodology.

In all there were 25 new polls from 25 states; down from the 27 surveys from last month. New Hampshire and New Mexico were not included this time around most likely because the already small sample sizes from September fell victim to panel attrition in October.

New State Polls (10/17/12) -- YouGov
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Arizona
10/4-10/11
+/- 5.4%
469 likely voters
43
52
3
+9
+6.58
California
10/4-10/11
+/- 3.5%
1169 likely voters
58
39
1
+19
+18.80
Colorado
10/4-10/11
+/- 5.3%
527 likely voters
48
45
5
+3
+1.73
Connecticut
10/4-10/11
+/- 5.5%
434 likely voters
53
39
5
+14
+12.07
Florida
10/4-10/11
+/- 4.0%
1244 likely voters
48
47
2
+1
+0.71
Georgia
10/4-10/11
+/- 4.5%
776 likely voters
44
52
3
+8
+9.70
Illinois
10/4-10/11
+/- 3.9%
850 likely voters
58
38
3
+20
+19.85
Indiana
10/4-10/11
+/- 5.6%
495 likely voters
41
53
3
+12
+10.85
Iowa
10/4-10/11
+/- 5.1%
545 likely voters
50
46
3
+4
+2.84
Maryland
10/4-10/11
+/- 5.2%
498 likely voters
58
37
4
+21
+21.03
Massachusetts
10/4-10/11
+/- 4.9%
669 likely voters
55
36
5
+19
+19.97
Michigan
10/4-10/11
+/- 3.9%
895 likely voters
52
42
4
+10
+5.87
Minnesota
10/4-10/11
+/- 4.2%
683 likely voters
52
44
3
+8
+8.56
Missouri
10/4-10/11
+/- 4.9%
546 likely voters
42
52
4
+10
+7.33
Nevada
10/4-10/11
+/- 6.7%
358 likely voters
50
45
3
+5
+4.09
New Jersey
10/4-10/11
+/- 4.1%
770 likely voters
54
41
3
+13
+12.26
New York
10/4-10/11
+/- 3.2%
1142 likely voters
59
35
4
+24
+24.78
North Carolina
10/4-10/11
+/- 3.9%
810 likely voters
48
49
2
+1
+1.30
Ohio
10/4-10/11
+/- 4.8%
851 likely voters
50
46
2
+4
+3.48
Pennsylvania
10/4-10/11
+/- 4.3%
966 likely voters
51
44
4
+7
+6.64
Tennessee
10/4-10/11
+/- 5.0%
484 likely voters
43
52
4
+9
+7.73
Texas
10/4-10/11
+/- 4.5%
957 likely voters
41
55
2
+14
+14.69
Virginia
9/7-9/14
+/- 4.0%
742 likely voters
46
45
6
+1
+2.52
Washington
10/4-10/11
+/- 4.3%
747 likely voters
56
39
3
+17
+13.51
Wisconsin
10/4-10/11
+/- 4.9%
638 likely voters
51
47
2
+4
+4.90

Again, as was the case in the September write up of the original YouGov wave, FHQ will spare you a state-by-state rundown. We'll provide you with some overall impressions. All of the interviews were done in a window that fell just after the first debate in Denver, so the expectation is that we should see some narrowing in the race. And while that is true in some cases in the poll-over-poll comparisons, it is not a trend that affected each state equally or at all.

Looking at the toss up states and Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin -- ten states in all -- none were static as compared to last month. However, only half of those ten states saw a greater than one point shift since September. The margins in Colorado, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Virginia all contracted in a way that was favorable to Mitt Romney. The remainder, Wisconsin, actually moved more than a point -- three, in fact -- toward the president. Regardless, that sort of shift -- in the one to four point range -- is usually not a recipe for significant change in the FHQ weighted averages.


And none of the data from the 25 states represented did anything to alter the map or the underlying electoral vote tally. There were a couple of changes to the Electoral College Spectrum, but those only occurred in states that were outside of the two candidates' toss up categories. Tennessee and Missouri switched places in the Lean Romney area and the average in Indiana after the addition of this poll bumped the Hoosier state past South Dakota, deeper into the Romney column.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3
(6)2
WA-12
(158)
NH-4
(257)
MT-3
(159)
MS-6
(58)
HI-4
(10)
NJ-14
(172)
OH-183
(275/281)
GA-16
(156)
KY-8
(52)
RI-4
(14)
CT-7
(179)
IA-6
(281/263)
SD-3
(140)
AL-9
(44)
NY-29
(43)
NM-5
(184)
VA-13
(294/257)
IN-11
(137)
KS-6
(35)
MD-10
(53)
MN-10
(194)
CO-9
(303/244)
SC-9
(126)
AR-6
(29)
MA-11
(64)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
NE-5
(117)
AK-3
(23)
IL-20
(84)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
ND-3
(112)
OK-7
(20)
CA-55
(139)
MI-16
(237)
AZ-11
(191)
TX-38
(109)
ID-4
(13)
DE-3
(142)
WI-10
(247)
MO-10
(180)
WV-5
(71)
WY-3
(9)
ME-4
(146)
NV-6
(253)
TN-11
(170)
LA-8
(66)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio
 is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

The Watch List, too, was mostly unchanged. It welcomed Georgia back into the fold, but that is not all that consequential. States -- especially those on the Romney side of the partisan line -- that are hovering around the Strong/Lean line are just too far out for either candidate to reasonable sway in the remaining time before the election. So, Georgia is back on the Watch List, but there are other states below that are more worthy of a regular glance than the Peach state. Namely, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio and Wisconsin.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Florida
from Toss Up Obama
to Toss Up Romney
Georgia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Minnesota
from Lean Obama
to Strong Obama
Montana
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Nevada
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
Ohio
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
Oregon
from Lean Obama
to Strong Obama
Wisconsin
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. Montana, for example, is close to being a Lean Romney state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that lean distinction.

Please see:



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