Wednesday, July 20, 2016

2016 Republican National Convention Presidential Nomination Roll Call Tally

Roll Call Tally from Day Two of the 2016 Republican National Convention (7/19/16)

Announced totals at the conclusion of the Roll Call of States (via Speaker Ryan)
Trump 1725
Cruz 475
Kasich 120
Rubio  114
Carson 7
Bush 3
Paul 2

That represents only 2446 delegates in total; 26 short of the 2472 delegates. The final count shorted Cruz and Rubio nine delegates, Kasich five delegates and did not account for the three abstentions.  That squares the 26 delegate discrepancy.

State tallies that differed from tallies called out by the Secretary of the Convention
Secretary call:
Trump 28

Delegation call:
Trump 11
Cruz 12
Rubio 5

Explanation: Though it has been traditional for the Alaska Republican Party to grant the request by candidates who have dropped out to hold on to their delegates, that practice is not rules-based. Granting the requests of Cruz and Rubio is inconsistent with the reallocation process described in the Alaska Republican Party rules. That was the procedure that the Alaska Republican Party filed with the Republican National Committee in fall 2015 under the provisions of Rule 16(f).

(Washington) District of Columbia
Secretary call:
Trump 19

Delegation call:
Rubio 10
Kasich 9

Explanation: Under the bylaws of the Republican Party in the District of Columbia, if only one name is placed in nomination at the convention, then all of the delegates from the district are bound to that candidate. Although Rubio and Kasich were the only candidates to qualify for delegates in March 12 convention in the nation's capital, neither had his name placed in nomination at the national convention. Under rule, then, that shifted all of 19 delegates to Trump.

Secretary call:
Trump 14
Rubio 7
Cruz 6
Carson 2
Kasich 1

Delegation call:
Trump 16
Rubio 7
Cruz 6
Kasich 1

Explanation: The Nevada Republican Party rules allow several options to candidates who have dropped out. Candidates can have their delegates reallocated to candidates still in the race, release them to be unbound or hold on to them. Reporting from Nevada was that Carson opted to release those delegates and that they had subsequent to that aligned with Trump. The Secretary, nonetheless, called out the original allocation based on the February caucus results.

Secretary call:
Trump 40

Delegation call:
Cruz 40

Explanation: Like Alaska and Washington, DC, the rules of the Utah Republican Party include provisions for the reallocation of delegates following a candidate dropping out of the race for the nomination. Once Cruz discontinued campaigning after the Indiana primary in early May, his 40 Utah delegates, by rule, were reallocated to the only remaining candidate in the race, Trump.

State Tallies Different from the FHQ Bound Count (Changes compared to the data in the spreadsheet above)
Trump +9
Rubio -9

Trump +4
Cruz +1
Abstain +2

American Samoa (all unbound to begin):
Trump +9

Guam (all unbound to begin):
Trump +9

Trump +23
Cruz -8
Rubio - 7
Carson -3
Bush -1
Fiorina -1
Huckabee -1
Kasich -1
Paul -1
* If only one name is placed in nomination, then all of the delegates from the Hawkeye state go to that candidate under Iowa GOP rules.

Trump +13
Rubio -5
Cruz -3
Uncommitted -5

Trump +26
Cruz - 11
Kasich -15

Trump +4
Cruz -4

North Dakota (all unbound to begin):
Trump +21
Cruz +6
Carson +1

Trump +11
Cruz +4
Rubio -12
Uncommitted -3

Trump +5
Kasich -5

Pennsylvania (54 unbound to begin):
Trump +53
Cruz +1

Trump +5
Paul +2
Kasich -7

Trump +3
Uncommitted -3

West Virginia:
Trump +4
Uncommitted -3
Kasich -1

Trump +2
Kasich +2
Uncommitted -4

NOTE: FHQ would speculate that most of the movement above is a function of delegates becoming unbound under the release procedures called for in state party rules. Delegate selection is key thereafter. In most cases, those delegates moved toward the presumptive nominee, Trump. In other states, the movement was toward Trump and others. A third group that could be added to fill this picture out is states whose delegations opted to follow the original allocation results. All of this is speculative, however, and requires following up.

Roll Call of States Sequence
Rule 37 calls for an alphabetical sequence, but 1) allows states to pass and 2) the 2016 convention agreed without objection to allow New York (presumptive nominee Trump's home state) to go out of turn (in order to allow the Empire state tally to put Trump over the 50% mark in terms of delegates required to win the nomination).

The roll call went in that order with only a few exceptions:
Michigan passed and moved to the end of the roll as called for in Rule 37.
Pennsylvania deferred to New York (see above) and moved to the end of the roll.

Once Wyoming finished the original alphabetical sequence, the roll call moved back to Michigan and then Pennsylvania in that order.

Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (7/19/16)

Thoughts on a Motion to Suspend the Rules on the Presidential Nomination Roll Call

The Electoral College Map (7/18/16)

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