Monday, October 17, 2016

The Electoral College Map (10/17/16)



New State Polls (10/17/16)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Clinton
Trump
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Alaska
8/9-8/14
+/- 4.4%
500 likely voters
30
38
19
+8
--
Alaska
10/11-10/13
+/- 4.4%
500 likely voters
36
37
17
+1
+7.20
Arizona
10/14
+/- 4.88%
400 likely voters
39
37
10
+2
+1.43
Colorado
10/10-10/16
+/- 3.7%
685 likely voters
45
37
5
+8
+4.12
Florida
10/10-10/16
+/- 3.8%
660 likely voters
48
44
4
+4
+2.31
Louisiana
7/21-7/22
+/- 4.0%
600 likely voters
34
49
11
+15
--
Louisiana
10/11-10/15
+/- 3.5%
800 likely voters
38
45
11
+7
+12.61
Nevada
10/10-10/15
+/- 3.5%
698 likely voters
46
44
0
+2
+1.03
North Carolina
10/10-10/15
+/- 3.5%
788 likely voters
48
47
0
+1
+1.44
Ohio
10/10-10/15
+/- 3.5%
774 likely voters
44
48
0
+4
--
Ohio
10/10-10/16
+/- 3.9%
624 likely voters
45
45
2
+/-0
+0.81
Pennsylvania
10/10-10/16
+/- 3.8%
660 likely voters
47
41
4
+6
+5.44
Utah
10/14-10/16
+/- 4.0%
750 likely voters
28
30
4
+2
+10.711
1Excluding the two head-to-head online panel surveys in Utah lowers Trump's average advantage there to 7.76 points. Those polls are outliers in view of the majority of surveys in the Beehive state during 2016 and serve as an anchor on the data. The change would shift Utah from the Strong Trump category to the Lean Trump category.


Polling Quick Hits:
The new work week brought eleven new polls from ten mostly blue toss up states. But there were a handful of narrowing red state surveys in addition to a couple of older releases in Alaska and Louisiana.

Alaska:
Like Utah, the majority of polling in Alaska in 2016 has found both candidates below 40 percent. And like Utah, recent surveys in the Last Frontier have shown a race for the state's three electoral votes that is tightening up some. In recent polls Clinton is closing in on Obama's share of support in 2012 while Trump continues to lag well behind Romney's pace there four years ago. But the New York businessman continues to lead.


Arizona:
Arizona is showing signs of becoming more like Nevada and North Carolina. Like those two Clinton toss ups, Arizona has seen a shift in the trajectory of the race since the first presidential debate at the end of September. Other than one of the head-to-head online panels, Clinton has not trailed in any polls in the Grand Canyon state since that point in the race. And it it slowly tracking toward the partisan line in the process.


Colorado:
The first debate was a turning point of sorts in Colorado as well. There has been some volatility in the Centennial state polling with a newly established post-(first)debate range of tied to Clinton +11. There have been a couple of polls on the upper end of the range, but just more than half of the eight polls released in the state since then have been more than five points in Clinton's direction -- including this new Quinnipiac poll. That has been enough to push Colorado closer to the Lean/Toss Up line on Clinton's side.


Florida:
While Clinton is around two and a quarter points ahead in the FHQ averages in Florida, the real story there continues to be how the polls have favored the former Secretary of State in the Sunshine state. Her streak there continues with the latest Quinnipiac survey. Unless and until that changes, this one has stabilized to a degree.


Louisiana:
Although there has been some narrowing across the series of JMC Analytics polls in the Pelican state, it is comfortably red. The latest is the closest a poll has been in Louisiana since just after the conventions.


Nevada:
See Florida. The story is the same in Nevada. Clinton's run in the Silver state continues following the first debate.


North Carolina:
That is true in North Carolina as well.


Ohio:
Of all the blue toss ups only Ohio has followed a trendline different from the rest. Clinton has run off streaks of polling leads in the other four states, but the surveys released since the first debate in the Buckeye state have continue to offer mixed results, but only slightly so. The others have had in some cases some blips on the radar but no more than one. Ohio, on the other hand, has seen Clinton pull ahead in the majority of polls since the first debate, but Trump has not been without some measure of success since then. And it has been more than one drop in a bucket of Clinton leads. Meanwhile, Ohio is now the closest state in the FHQ averages but four points and four slots on the Spectrum away from the tipping point.


Pennsylvania:
The Keystone state is the picture of stability. Not only have the margins in the majority of polls in the time since the first debate been in the Lean Clinton area, but the change since the September Quinnipiac poll have been minimal. Trump held steady just above the 40 percent mark and Clinton has added a couple of points, nudging her into the upper 40s. That is where Pennsylvania is: Clinton in the mid-40s and Trump around 40. That is a lot of ground to make up in three weeks in a must have state for Trump.


Utah:
The tale in Utah is what one does not see above: Evan McMullin seemingly making the race for the Beehive state's six electoral votes a three-way race. The byproduct of Trump and McMullin splitting the usual Republican share of support in the state is that Clinton is in range with around what Obama pulled on average in the state across both 2008 and 2012.


--
The map remained steady, but the Watch List gained Colorado (within a point of shifting into the Lean Clinton category) and lost Nevada. Despite all the new data, only Alaska shifted on the Electoral College Spectrum, switching places with South Carolina. The remainder of the states held their positions in the order. That is particularly relevant in the eight toss up states where the order has solidified for the most part.




The Electoral College Spectrum1
MD-102
(13)
WA-12
(162)
PA-20
(263)
AK-3
(154)
SD-3
(53)
HI-4
(17)
NJ-14
(176)
CO-94
(272 | 275)
SC-9
(151)
AR-6
(50)
VT-3
(20)
OR-7
(183)
FL-29
(301 | 266)
TX-38
(142)
ND-3
(44)
CA-55
(75)
NM-5
(188)
NC-15
(316 | 237)
IN-11
(104)
KY-8
(41)
MA-11
(86)
ME-23
(190)
NV-6
(322 | 222)
MS-6
(93)
NE-53
(33)
NY-29+13
(116)
MN-10
(200)
OH-18
(340 | 216)
UT-6
(87)
AL-9
(28)
IL-20
(136)
MI-16
(216)
IA-6
(198)
KS-6
(81)
OK-7
(19)
DE-3
(139)
WI-10
(226)
AZ-11
(192)
LA-8
(75)
ID-4
(12)
CT-7
(146)
VA-13
(239)
GA-16+13
(181)
MT-3
(67)
WV-5
(8)
RI-4
(150)
NH-4
(243)
MO-10
(164)
TN-11
(64)
WY-3
(3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics.
To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College.

3 Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral college votes to candidates in a more proportional manner. The statewide winner receives the two electoral votes apportioned to the state based on the two US Senate seats each state has. Additionally, the winner within a congressional district is awarded one electoral vote. Given current polling, all five Nebraska electoral votes would be allocated to Trump. In Maine, a split seems more likely. Trump leads in Maine's second congressional district while Clinton is ahead statewide and in the first district. She would receive three of the four Maine electoral votes and Trump the remaining electoral vote. Those congressional district votes are added approximately where they would fall in the Spectrum above.

4 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category.



NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.


The Watch List1
State
Switch
Colorado
from Toss Up Clinton
to Lean Clinton
Indiana
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
Maine CD2
from Toss Up Trump
to Lean Trump
Mississippi
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
New Hampshire
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
Ohio
from Toss Up Clinton
to Toss Up Trump
Oregon
from Lean Clinton
to Strong Clinton
Pennsylvania
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/16/16)

The Electoral College Map (10/15/16)

The Electoral College Map (10/14/16)

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1 comment:

MSS said...

You've probably explained this somewhere, but...

Why is Georgia shown as "16+1" with a footnote, the text of which refers only to the CD-level allocation in Maine and Nebraska?