New State Polls (10/23/16)
Margin of Error
1042 likely voters
917 likely voters
1304 likely voters
530 likely voters
1031 likely voters
Polling Quick Hits:
With just 16 days until Election Day there were just a trickle of polls to close out the weekend. Only two -- a pair of polls from YouGov -- were in the field completely following the final presidential debate. The rest were either older (Lucid surveys of Iowa and Ohio) or straddled the third debate (Sooner Poll).
There have been Florida surveys that have favored Trump since the first debate, but they are few and far between. The latest in the Sunshine state from YouGov is yet another poll to add to the overwhelming evidence that Clinton is ahead in the two to four point range. Clinton has carved out a consistent spot in the mid-40s while Trump has maintained a position in the low 40s with little variation. This survey is consistent with that.
If leads have been atypical in Florida polls for Trump, the same is true in Iowa but for Clinton. This difference between the two states is that it is rare to see a day pass without a new poll from the Sunshine state. Iowa, on the other hand, has mostly witnessed a range from tied to +8 for Trump since the beginning of September. This older, internet-based poll from Lucid in the Hawkeye state is a bit of an aberration in that it finds Clinton ahead. But it is one of just a handful of polls in the state in that September to October window. There have only been a few surveys but that has not meant wild variation in the averages. Instead, Iowa has been stuck in neutral favoring Trump but by a margin less than one and a half points. Any marked shift toward Clinton could bring Iowa to her side of the partisan line, but that is anything but apparent at this point.
The Lucid poll hit in a sequence of the polling in Ohio following the first debate and the Trump tapes where Clinton was reeling off a series of survey wins. In the time since, however, the polling has narrowed somewhat (or has become more variable in any event). It is less that the polling has narrowed then it is that the average here at FHQ had shrunk. Clinton's grasp on the lead has been tenuous but persistent in the Buckeye state. That remains so even with the addition of a good poll there for the former Secretary of State.
No surprises in the Sooner state. Oklahoma still resides at the far lower right end of the Electoral College Spectrum. The latest Sooner Poll only confirmed that positioning.
The Lone Star state has taken up a position well within the heart of the Lean Trump area almost the whole cycle. That was already about half of the margin by which Romney won the state in 2012. In other words, if Texas is a harbinger, then there was already evidence that the overall map had shifted some toward the Democrats. But in October that Lean area advantage has given way to a sequence of surveys in Texas that has roughly halved that Trump advantage. Those five to nine point polling leads of the summer are now two to four points. Now, the average here at FHQ has trailed off more slowly, but it has gradually crept down and now Texas is the closest of the small number of Lean Trump states; the one on the Lean/Toss Up line. The odds are that Texas remains red on Election Day, but if the conversation is whether the Lone Star state is going to turn blue, then the Electoral College majority is already in the Democrats' possession.
The addition of the Lucid Iowa poll decreased the Hawkeye state average enough to push Iowa past Arizona and up against the partisan line. Texas, too, moved in the direction of the partisan line, swapping places with Missouri on the Electoral College Spectrum. Oklahoma moved in the opposite direction. Now, only Wyoming separates Oklahoma from being the reddest of red states.
Both the map and the Watch List remained unchanged from a day ago.
NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2016 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
(272 | 275)
(301 | 266)
(316 | 237)
(322 | 222)
(340 | 216)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics.
To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College.
3 Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral college votes to candidates in a more proportional manner. The statewide winner receives the two electoral votes apportioned to the state based on the two US Senate seats each state has. Additionally, the winner within a congressional district is awarded one electoral vote. Given current polling, all five Nebraska electoral votes would be allocated to Trump. In Maine, a split seems more likely. Trump leads in Maine's second congressional district while Clinton is ahead statewide and in the first district. She would receive three of the four Maine electoral votes and Trump the remaining electoral vote. Those congressional district votes are added approximately where they would fall in the Spectrum above.
4 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category.
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List1
from Toss Up Clinton
to Lean Clinton
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
from Toss Up Clinton
to Toss Up Trump
from Lean Clinton
to Strong Clinton
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
The Electoral College Map (10/22/16)
The Electoral College Map (10/21/16)
The Electoral College Map (10/20/16)
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