New State Polls (10/27/16)
Margin of Error
1012 likely voters
786 likely voters
698 likely voters
707 likely voters
791 likely voters
500 likely voters
1030 likely voters
772 likely voters
702 likely voters
824 likely voters
959 likely voters
749 likely voters
750 likely voters
1The Quinnipiac survey reduces the FHQ average for Iowa to below one point, moving the Hawkeye state onto the Watch List.
Polling Quick Hits:
12 more days.
Thursday brought 14 new surveys from twelve states.
Clinton lagging about six points behind Obama 2012 in California would perhaps mean a great deal more if she was not still ahead of Trump by more than thirty points. The Golden state is still blue.
In the Sunshine state, the Dixie Strategies poll looks something like the Selzer survey from a day ago: inconsistent with the bulk of recent polling in Florida, but the individual candidate levels of support are not out of the ordinary. Chalk it up to polling variation. Meanwhile, the UNF survey is more in line with the polling since the first debate in Florida.
Clinton has inched up to within range of where Obama was in Georgia four years ago. But her movement is within a much tighter range. Trump, on the other hand, is operating in a wider, more variable window in the Peach state as evidence by his share of support in the new Quinnipiac survey. The combination of the two has closed the gap some in Georgia, keeping the state on the Trump side of the partisan line.
Of the three closest states at FHQ -- Arizona, Iowa and Ohio -- only Ohio has been polled with any level of frequency all year much less over the course of the last month since the first debate. Iowa has only seen a handful of polls in that period. Those surveys have mostly leaned in Trump's direction, but when there is any variation in that, it tends to end in a tie rather than favoring Clinton. That is the case with this new Quinnipiac poll. But that tie is an improvement over the seven point deficit Clinton was facing a month ago in the same poll in the Hawkeye state. The thing is, Trump 44 percent is typical. Clinton's share is well above the 40 percent mark she has tended to hover under for much of 2016.
There are many parallels in the presidential race between California and Massachusetts. Both share a similar space on the Electoral College Spectrum below and the Bay state matches almost perfectly the description of California above. Clinton is behind where the typical Democratic candidate has ended up there, but when Trump is running about ten points behind Romney, that is of less significance.
Two new surveys in Michigan. There is some variation in terms of the shares of support the two candidates garner, but the margins are right in line with where FHQ has the race in the Great Lakes state in the averages. There is no evidence of any cracks in the lead Clinton has there.
A day after Monmouth appeared to show the race tightening in the Granite state, things are back to what has passed for normal there in the new UMass survey. Polls fluctuate. One can choose to ride the roller coaster or can simply follow the averages. The latter route has New Hampshire a little more than Clinton +6. The race in New Hampshire has been around there since the summer.
That Remington poll from earlier in the week looks more and more like an outlier. The simple fact of the matter is that North Carolina has consistently been in the narrow, but consistent Clinton lead area since the first debate..
Like North Carolina, the talking points here on Pennsylvania polling has been a bit of a broken record. There have been some breaks in the lean area leads in the Keystone state, but they have been exception rather than rule. Even rarer are polls in Pennsylvania with Trump ahead. Other than the early waves of the online UPI panels, Trump has trailed there all year.
The evidence continues to accumulate that the margin between Clinton and Trump in the Lone Star state has narrowed. Those lean area margins have shrunk to a consistent two to four point Trump lead in the last few weeks. By extension, that has slowly narrowed the average margin here to a point where it is approaching the lean/toss up line. This is one that might narrow but is unlikely to jump the partisan line given the trajectory of current polling in Texas.
See Pennsylvania. Virginia may not favor Clinton by 12 points like this Quinnipiac survey has found, but it has consistently had her in the lead. It is difficult to make states like Virginia and Pennsylvania -- states Republicans would normally target to most easily get to 270 -- interesting when they so clearly advantage Clinton.
Washington is a state where Clinton has underperformed Obama 2012 all year, but has maintained a lead just over the strong/lean line on Clinton's side of the Spectrum throughout. And that is right around where the Evergreen state ended up then.
Nothing changed on the map from a day ago. However, Iowa entered the Watch List, and there were a few small shifts on the Spectrum. Massachusetts and California switched spots, Washington pushed a slot deeper into the Strong Clinton area and Virginia nudged past Maine, settling next to Michigan.
NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2016 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
(272 | 275)
(301 | 266)
(316 | 237)
(322 | 222)
(340 | 216)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics.
To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College.
3 Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral college votes to candidates in a more proportional manner. The statewide winner receives the two electoral votes apportioned to the state based on the two US Senate seats each state has. Additionally, the winner within a congressional district is awarded one electoral vote. Given current polling, all five Nebraska electoral votes would be allocated to Trump. In Maine, a split seems more likely. Trump leads in Maine's second congressional district while Clinton is ahead statewide and in the first district. She would receive three of the four Maine electoral votes and Trump the remaining electoral vote. Those congressional district votes are added approximately where they would fall in the Spectrum above.
4 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category.
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List1
from Toss Up Clinton
to Lean Clinton
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
from Toss Up Trump
to Toss Up Clinton
from Strong Trump
to Lean Trump
from Toss Up Clinton
to Toss Up Trump
from Lean Clinton
to Strong Clinton
from Lean Clinton
to Toss Up Clinton
from Lean Trump
to Strong Trump
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
The Electoral College Map (10/26/16)
The Electoral College Map (10/25/16)
The Electoral College Map (10/24/16)
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