Monday, May 19, 2008

The Links for 5/19/08: Kentucky, Oregon, Electoral College Ties and More

Three cheers for Nevada! At least the Democrats in the Silver state were able to hold a state convention over the weekend and count all the votes in a timely manner (...and avoid Ron Paul supporters shutting things down). Obama ended up amassing 14 delegates to the national convention in Denver to Clinton's 11. In the other states FHQ was tracking over the weekend, well, there wasn't that much to track. In the void, the media reports (or lack thereof in the case of Colorado and Washington) seemed to fall back on the idea that the first step determined the allocation of delegates in those states. At least that was how the reporting on Kansas' state convention went (11 delegates were supposed to be at stake in the state convention phase of the Kansas delegate selection plan.). The focus there was on the lt. governor being named an add-on superdelegate (...and that he was backing Obama). Washington received nary a mention and the focus of the Colorado coverage was the senatorial nomination of Mark Udall.

There was news to be had, though. You just had to dig a bit. There was mention of the Colorado Democrats releasing their numbers sometime today in a live blog of Saturday's proceedings over at PolitickerCO. In Washington, information was tougher to come by. With 51 delegates on the line you wouldn't think so though. Enthusiasm seemed high at the 3rd District caucus and Obama emerged with a 4-2 delegate edge from the 8th, according to one participant. [I'll keep tabs on both situations as well as Kansas' throughout the day and post the results when they become available.]

In other news, there are actually a couple of contests occurring tomorrow. Maybe you've heard. Obama drew a huge crowd in Oregon yesterday and holds a slight lead over Clinton in the polls there. The one thing that could hamper his chances is the fact that new voters (a group that favors the Illinois senator) received two ballots (one partisan and one non-partisan). If both are mailed in, only the non-partisan one counts. That could hurt Obama's numbers on the margins. This has gotten a fair amount of media coverage locally in Oregon, so the word may have gotten out. The possibility is still out there, though. Also, CQ Politics has a look at the race in Kentucky up this morning and gives the advantage to Clinton. No surprise there, but the piece does provide a detailed examination of the race in each of the Bluegrass state's congressional districts. A tie is the best they see Obama doing in any of the six districts.

Speaking of ties, has an interesting look at the potential for an electoral college tie between McCain and Obama in the fall. Beyond that, they go into the rules that would kick in should that tie occur and who would stand to gain from that. Given the shape of things on the congressional level now, the incoming House would give Obama the edge in a such a scenario. I've mentioned this before, but I'll do so again: If you haven't checked this site out yet, please go by and do so. Excellent analysis.

Recent Posts:
Nevada Final Tally: 45% of the Vote, 56% of the Delegates

Obama in the Red States: What Mississippi's 1st District Means

Will Obama's Seeming Inevitability Help Him as the Caucus Process Draws to a Close?


Benjamin Ady said...

Thank you for posting. I agree that it is completely stupid the way there is a total vacuum for information from the 9 congressional district caucuses in Washington, both in the local media and in the blogosphere. it does, however, look rather like the breakdown for national delegates is going to be the 52/26 split which was predicted based on precinct caucus results. I'll be keeping an eye here to see if you find any more sources/news =)

Josh Putnam said...

It does seem that the results of these caucuses will largely follow what we've witnessed on the precinct level. In the media, that translates to no story...sadly.

But I'm obviously not interested the story. I'm more interested in determining whether there is any systematic shift one way or the other from the first to the last step of the process. In most years when one candidate becomes inevitable early there is momentum toward that candidate.

2008 isn't most years though. So the question becomes, do we see any movement to or from the winner of the original step (no matter how small)? So far we've seen more movement toward Obama (in Texas and Nevada) which fits in more with the conventional wisdom.

Thanks for your comment and thanks for reading.