Thursday, March 19, 2009

2012 GOP Presidential Candidate Bracket

NOTE: You can see more on the prospective 2012 GOP candidates with FHQ's candidate tracker or a broader look at candidate/nominee emergence here.

[Click Map to Vote at NPR]

Well, so much for me putting together a bracket for prospective 2012 GOP presidential candidates. And I was only going to include the top eight candidates. How quaint.

NPR's Ken Rudin has put together a list of the top 32 candidates potentially vying for the chance to challenge Obama in the fall of 2012. Yeah, you have to stretch a bit to get to that many, but it will be nice to check back on this to track who rises and falls as we head into the 2010 midterms and beyond. First round results will be revealed on Tuesday March 24.

Head on over to NPR to vote and come back here to post your Final Four and ultimate winner. I'll say this: Jon Huntsman is a dangerous 7 seed.

H/t: Nicki's Nook

Recent Posts:
Obligatory Brackets Post: 2008 Presidential Candidates

Election 2012: Obama 55 - Palin 35

Now Why Didn't They Just Do This Last Week?


Greg Boike said...

Well, I guess someone has to go out on a limb and make picks.

In the Palin Bracket: unless my research contradicts the observations I've made thus far, the showdown will almost certainly come down to Palin v. Huckabee.
In the Romney Bracket: look for a close elite eight competition for the "true southern fiscal and social conservative" title between Sanford and Jindal. Given Jindal's less than stellar showing following Obama's speech, and Sanford's early opposition to taking stimulus money, expect him to advance to take on Romney.
In the Final Four: it will depend on a) if the economy has recovered somewhat, and b) how alienated the Republican moderates feel. These issues are somewhat tied to one another.
If the economy is of secondary concern by 2012, I would expect the popular Palin to win quickly on the strength of social conservatives--the only potential risk being a fervent anti-earmark crusader who is just as socially conservative.
If moderate Republicans remain loyal, and the economy has yet to make a full recovery, it is possible that Romney will survive long enough for the more extreme conservatives to knock each other off (see Thompson v. Huckabee in SC 08, eventually giving the nomination to McCain).

There are my picks, and if I manage to get these right four years in advance, I should seriously consider political forecasting as a career.

Josh Putnam said...

Alright Greg. I'm not going to leave you out on that limb. However, I'm going to make some changes to this.

1) I dropped a comment over at NPR about this, but don't know if they'll fix it or not. The seedings are not matched up properly. These things are set up so that the top seed always gets the lowest (a candidate on the 9-16 half of the bracket) seeded winner if the winners go according to seeding. Assuming no upsets, then.

I'm going to photoshop fix it, and we can all do an FHQ version of this tournament.

...the right way. [Pet Peeve Alert: If you're going to do something like this, even if just for fun, do it the right way.]

That may affect some of your picks.

2) We need some names for each side of the bracket. [I'll photoshop these in too.]. Region doesn't work here like it does in the basketball tournament (though it doesn't -- and hasn't -- been regionally aligned there either). Palin and Romney brackets seems biased to some degree.

I like the idea of one of the brackets being the Reagan bracket but there really isn't someone to balance out a Reagan. If we could get a good fiscal conservative for one bracket and a social conservative for the other we'd be set.

I'll open this up to the group for suggestions. I'll add them in when and if we get some good responses.