Virginia Democrats today will head to the polls to determine who will represent the party in the commonwealth's gubernatorial election against Republican, Bob McDonnell. Of the two gubernatorial races being held in 2009, Virginia's has been the more interesting one thus far, if only because of who is participating. New Jersey offers a vulnerable incumbent lagging in the polls, but open seat races, like the one in Virginia, bring the potential for dynamic, contested primary elections on both sides. Sure, McDonnell has been the de facto (or actual) GOP candidate for a while now, but the Democrats have former DNC chairman, Terry McAuliffe in the race. Not only that, but he appears to have peaked too early, dropping precipitously in the polls during the last couple of weeks. The momentum for the moment rests with state senator, Creigh Deeds, who has matched McAuliffe's fall with a nearly identical rise of late.
The big question heading into today's vote is what turnout will look like and how the variation there could affect the outcome.
Over at FiveThirtyEight, Ed Kilgore has a nice early voting counterfactual for the McAuliffe and Moran campaigns to ponder should they face the reality of calling either Deeds or each other to offer their concession and congratulations.
Update: CQ also has a nice round-up of the race this morning.
Polls close at 7pm tonight.
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